Monza changes everything
For many years, Formula 1 hasn’t experienced such a balanced and unusual season: there’s the reigning champion who remains the leader but whose team is in a technical crisis (Max Verstappen) and a multitude of challengers who take turns behind him, briefly showing their potential before being pushed back underwater by another rival. Before Monza, based on points, it seemed that only Lando Norris had any real—albeit slim—chance of challenging the Dutch champion until the grand finale in Abu Dhabi.
However, Charles Leclerc’s fantastic victory at the Italian Grand Prix, Red Bull’s endless problems, and Lando Norris’s inability to fully capitalize on the potential of the MCL38 have created a much more interesting championship table: Max Verstappen’s lead over Lando Norris has shrunk to 62 points, while Norris’s margin over Charles Leclerc is just 24 points. It’s difficult, at least mathematically, to consider Norris in the running without also including the Monegasque driver, who is less than a full victory behind the Englishman.
Difficult calculations to make
Of course, points aren’t the only aspect to consider: overall, McLaren still appears faster and more complete than Ferrari, although the updates have given a good boost to the two SF-24s. The next two races, which are scheduled to take place at the Baku City Circuit and in Singapore, are very interesting on paper for Scuderia Ferrari, which could consider achieving more victories. But can Charles Leclerc really think big? And, if so, what would the Monegasque need to do to arrive in Abu Dhabi with a chance to surpass Max Verstappen?
There are still eight GPs on the 2024 Formula 1 calendar, plus three Sprint races. Therefore, there are still 232 points up for grabs. To win the championship, Charles Leclerc would need to gain an average of 10.75 (basically, 11) points per race on Max Verstappen. To stay ahead of Lando Norris, he would only need to chip away three points per weekend from the Englishman. The problem for Charles Leclerc is that his destiny is not in his own hands. Even if he won all the GPs (with the fastest lap) and all the Sprints, the Monegasque driver would not be guaranteed to be the champion.
Nothing to lose
Obviously, these are ‘academic’ exercises, and at the moment, it’s hard to imagine a single driver capable of winning all the last eight rounds of the championship. However, the many ups and downs of the past few months, which have affected all the teams, suggest that making significant points gains in individual races is not at all impossible. Ferrari and Charles Leclerc have nothing to lose, but after the magical gamble at the Monza circuit in the Italian Grand Prix, daring is no longer a taboo word.
