Before the race weekend, Ferrari had seen itself in a weaker starting position against Red Bull in Japan. Charles Leclerc saw too many similarities between the Suzuka circuit and the high-speed track at Spa-Francorchamps. In Belgium, Max Verstappen miles ahead of the competition. Not even a grid penalty prevented him from an easy win. That promoted the fear in Maranello that things could be similar in Japan.
The practice sessions on Friday brought no clues regarding the balance of power. It was not used as a reference. The rain meant teams went blind into qualifying on Saturday. But as early as the third practice session, it became apparent that the red cars would be a tough challenger this weekend: Max Verstappen was three tenths of a second faster, but Ferrari had turned the engine down for FP3.
Fifth pole of the season for Max Verstappen
In qualifying, the top cars of the 2022 Formula 1 season then met at eye level. In Q3 there was almost no difference between the Red Bull and the Ferrari. Max Verstappen clinched his fifth pole of the season by the tiniest of ten-thousandths over Charles Leclerc and 57-thousandths against Carlos Sainz. The Ferrari drivers knew where to find the time lost. Both were unhappy with their last sector.
First Charles Leclerc: “I had trouble keeping the tires together over the lap. If I was fast in the first sector, they fell apart in the last one. Just like on my last lap.” The Monegasque driver improved in the last attempt thanks to an outstanding middle sector, but missed the record time set by the Dutchman. In his ideal time – the combination of the best three sections of qualifying – he would have completed a lap of 1:29.257 minutes. 57 thousandths better than his fastest Q3 time.
Carlos Sainz also struggled with the last chicane. “I left it there. We went into the third practice session with a good basic setup. We’re doing well there now. Then it’s time for fine-tuning. And the question arises as to who is on the better side, if how between us and Red Bull is only half a tenth. Today it was Max”, the Spaniard said angrily. His ideal time would have been a lap of 1:29.247 minutes. Faster than that of the teammate.
But Max Verstappen didn’t get off scot-free either. He blocked his last lap in the first corner. “He had an expensive wobbler in there,” reports sports director Helmut Marko. The first lap of Q3 was enough for the world champion to take pole position. He also failed to get his best sectors into a real lap on the track. Otherwise he would have clocked 1:29.221 minutes. And would also have stood in front of the Ferrari.
After qualifying, the nail-biter continued. The stewards were investigating an incident at the start of Q3. Max Verstappen stood in the way of Lando Norris in the fastest corner of the racetrack, but the Red Bull man later got away with just a warning. Norris had to steer his McLaren onto the grass on the left. “He didn’t say anything on the radio. After qualifying, he asked for a penalty,” complained Marko. Max Verstappen apologized to his colleague on the racetrack with a show of hands.
The fastest man in qualifying described the incident from his point of view. “Everyone was in their outlap. Everyone made room towards the man in front to be able to drive in cleaner air.” Carlos Sainz was driving ahead of Max Verstappen at this point. “For some reason Lando wanted to pass me before the fast lap. I had cold tires and wasn’t getting away fast enough when I saw him in the rear-view mirror.” The rear of the Red Bull visibly broke out. Verstappen slid left into Norris’ lane. “His overtaking maneuver created this situation in the first place. If everyone acts with a little more respect, that doesn’t happen.”
Stewards decide on a reprimand
There is a kind of gentlemen’s agreement between the drivers for the warm-up lap that they leave each other alone. But this is often broken when the situation requires it. Lando Norris sees no wrongdoing on his part and spoke out in front of the TV microphones for punishment. “There’s no clear rule about what you can and can’t do in the outlap. But you shouldn’t be allowed to do what Max did.”
The stewards’ hearing ended with a smack on the wrist for Verstappen. The world champion accelerated at the same time as Norris decided to overtake him. With the lack of tire temperature, Verstappen lost control of his car for a short time, which resulted in a counterclockwise roll. Norris spoke to the stewards about an unfortunate incident but reminded them that it is the driver’s responsibility to remain in control at all times. Since similar cases had previously been punished with reprimands, the race stewards decided to do so.
Be it as it may. On the race track, Red Bull and Ferrari dueled in their own world. The trend of the season continued. The dark blue car was slightly quicker on the straights. The Ferrari recovered in the corners. The F1-75 was always strong in qualifying anyway. But the new floor seems to have the desired effect, as reported by AMuS after the qualifying session.
Scuderia Ferrari put Red Bull in difficulty on a track which on paper is far better for the RB18. Wherever efficiency comes into play, the Red Bull shines. The Ferrari team says: “It’s a good sign for us that we were able to put them under pressure.”
When it comes to contact pressure, the rivals are largely in agreement. Both drive with visibly fewer rear wings than Mercedes, which went to the maximum level.
Ferrari is driving with a bit less wing (less downforce) than Red Bull, so that they can keep up with them on the straights. We will see if this will hurt them in the race considering Suzuka is pretty harsh on tyres. Red Bull expects to have a better tyre wear. Obviously we still have to see how the F1-75 performs during the race, but AMuS informs that the new Ferrari floor seems to be working as expected, and that would be good news for the correlation between wind tunnel and race track.
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Weather as the great unknown
The question is whether Ferrari will be a real opponent this time over the distance. Or whether the Scuderia will pay for the downforce removed in the race. Suzuka puts extreme strain on the tires. In the last Grand Prix, the Pirelli tyres overheated on the red car.
Charles Leclerc puts it less on his own car: “Red Bull overtook us in terms of speed. Carlos and I had to try to make up for this deficit somehow.” The tires broke earlier. “Our tire wear should be better again,” believes Red Bull sports director Marko. “And Max can control the race from the front.”
The weather is the great unknown. “It could rain before, during or after the race,” Carlos Sainz pointed out. And then suddenly, with Mercedes, an opponent might even come from behind. The Silver Arrows were well positioned on Friday afternoon on a wet track. The big rear wing would be a help for Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.
“We didn’t make any major compromises,” says Charles Leclerc. Ferrari went at maximum speed. Like Red Bull. The speed in qualifying and the race – assuming a dry track – had priority. “Hopefully we’ve found a good balance between qualifying and Sunday’s race,” said Max Verstappen.
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