Ferrari wants to play its world championship cards until the end: although it is 21 points behind McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship, the team is still in the running for the title and will try to exploit all the potential of the SF-24 in pursuit of a team championship that has eluded Maranello since 2008.
The Abu Dhabi circuit has historically not been favorable for Ferrari, but the Yas Marina track seems less penalizing for the Scuderia compared to Qatar, where the weather was colder than expected. In the United Arab Emirates capital, there will be no surprises: weather forecasts predict an air temperature of 28°C, returning to the typical conditions of the Persian Gulf. Theoretically, the two contenders will be able to compete for the title on equal terms, and McLaren, with its advantage, can manage the race, possibly playing defensively against Ferrari.
Fred Vasseur has kept the team under pressure to arrive at the final race with the championship still open: in Abu Dhabi, we will see an attacking Ferrari. With nothing to lose, the Scuderia will push the SF-24 to its limits.
A very low setup was tested in the simulator, as the Yas Marina track surface is almost billiard-like. No one from Ferrari has spoken about it clearly, but the technical directive unexpectedly introduced in Las Vegas affected Ferrari not only by requiring adjustments to the floor, adding unplanned costs to the budget cap, but it also had an impact on performance.
How much? How little? It’s obviously hard to say, but when four teams are battling for pole position with just a few thousandths of a second between them, it’s clear that every detail can make a big difference.
On the Abu Dhabi track, we will see an SF-24 as low as possible, and Carlos Sainz should also be convinced to use the new floor that Charles Leclerc tested and approved in Lusail. The Monegasque never had doubts about the validity of the new solution, while the Spaniard rejected it without hesitation in FP1 in Las Vegas and then was not tempted to use it last weekend, even though there were available components.
From the debriefing of Sunday’s race, it emerged that Carlos Sainz’s floor would not have been significantly damaged by the left front tire puncture, although the Spaniard could not find the pace to attack Pierre Gasly‘s fifth place with the Alpine. Rumors coming from Maranello also confirm that the analysis of the punctured tire showed there were no debris from the rearview mirror lost by Alexander Albon’s Williams and crushed by Valtteri Bottas‘s Sauber.
The tire was essentially finished: beneath the tread, the construction was visible, indicating that the tire had exceeded its durability limit, waiting for the race director to call in the safety car to remove the carbon debris. It seems that this issue affected both Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton, who experienced tire degradation on the same lap.
Ferrari is ready to “push” the power unit as well, knowing that McLaren, using a customer Mercedes engine, will have fewer opportunities to push their power unit closer to its reliability limit. It was said that Charles Leclerc would have lost a couple of tenths due to the fatigue of the unit 4 installed in the Netherlands, but this was not confirmed, as the Monegasque delivered a flawless race to finish second behind Max Verstappen. In Abu Dhabi, even the power unit, including the hybrid system, will be pushed to its maximum performance.
In short, expect Ferrari to give it their all until the end, perhaps hoping McLaren will make another mistake. The MCL38 has underperformed relative to its actual potential: if Landdo Norris and Oscar Piastri don’t make mistakes, it will be almost impossible for Ferrari to overturn a prediction that heavily favors the Woking team. However, the two drivers of Andrea Stella have accustomed us to mistakes that have cost the team dearly, so Ferrari will leave no stone unturned.
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