What happened to the SF-24
Max Verstappen’s quiet victory in the 2024 Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix certainly doesn’t make much news, even though it should, considering the particular track, the nature of the smooth track surface at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit, the cold weather, and the new format weekend. These are all variables that haven’t even slightly hindered the Dutch world Champion and the Red Bull team. On the contrary, if possible, they have emphasized the gap compared to the rest of the group, with Red Bull being more dominant than ever seen before, although it should be emphasized, at the same time, by the fact that we saw the greatest performance gap of the year between Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez.
The impression is that when conditions become much more complicated to manage, for example, with the high degradation seen on the track and the need to manage tires and temperatures with extreme care, Max Verstappen emerges even more than usual, while Sergio Perez begins to struggle more decisively, becoming vulnerable against the rest of the group. In this case, he was beaten by a truly spectacular Lando Norris. This is why Max Verstappen’s solitary dominance should be emphasized because a part of the gap comes from the phenomenal Dutchman driving car number 1.
Behind Max Verstappen we have Lando Norris, who effectively does exactly the race expected from Scuderia Ferrari and in particular from Charles Leclerc at a certain point given the positions on the track and the strategic play. The British driver finished the Chinese Grand Prix in second position ahead of a Red Bull and both Ferrari SF-24 cars. McLaren was therefore undoubtedly the second force on the track in Shanghai, a circuit it considered decidedly hostile beforehand but where it found an excellent balance, “clinging” to high downforce and fast corners to find performance.
We have indeed verified through average telemetry data throughout the race that Lando Norris’s strength compared to Ferrari lay in the fast and medium-fast corners, where the MCL38 evidently limited sliding and managed temperatures well, finding that perfect balance in pace which we know in Formula 1 has a multiplier effect on performance, and of which Lando Norris is often a master. The young Briton certainly has some issues with crucial moments, but when it comes to hammering on the pace while keeping the car “alive” in terms of temperatures and tire management, he is one of the best, and this was clearly evident in the Chinese Grand Prix.
Ferrari: cold and lack of grip
Turning to the race and the entire Ferrari weekend, it is evident that something did not work. The first thing we noticed, and we allow ourselves to emphasize, is a presumption from the Maranello team, with Charles Leclerc stating after the qualifying session that he had made some setup choices more geared towards the race pace, convinced that Fernando Alonso and the McLaren cars would not have been ahead of the reds anyway. The Monegasque also expressed extreme confidence in the race pace and felt sure of being able to aim for the podium, giving the impression that based on simulations, the McLaren cars should not have been a problem. This was not the case on the flying lap, nor in the race, where Lando Norris found the podium place that Charles Leclerc had confidently hoped for beforehand. The difficulty in “warming up” the tires for the SF24 is evident, a single-seater that evidently releases little energy onto the tires to contain wear at all costs.
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The car’s response is somewhat correct, considering that even in Shanghai, Charles Leclerc was heading towards a one-stop strategy regardless of the Safety Car’s entry, but the initial stages of the stints are dramatic and, with the low temperatures during the race, it becomes almost a feat to bring the hard compound within the ideal operating range. Moreover, the smooth asphalt does not seem to be an ally of the red car, which with the little energy discharged onto the tires seems unable to trigger the so-called adhesive grip when available, thus for soft compounds in qualifying and on smooth track surface in the race. We’ll postpone the details on the subject for further analysis, but to briefly clarify, tires produce grip in two ways. The most relevant percentage-wise is hysteresis grip, which is generated when the tire sliding laterally on the track surface encounters its roughness and generates an asymmetric force that opposes sliding (due to hundreds of small points of hysteresis on the tire surface).
The other type of grip, the adhesive one, occurs when molecular bonds form between the rubber and the track surface itself. Obviously, the greater the contact surface, the more easily adhesive grip forms, so this component is higher on very smooth asphalt or with very soft tires that better mimic the roughness of the road surface. Although it is not the most relevant component, it is still a factor that makes a difference, and the impression is that the SF24 almost never manages to generate a high level of this type of additional adhesion, especially in conditions like those of the Chinese race, with smooth asphalt that reduces hysteresis grip, and the cold combined with hard tires that need energy to trigger the adhesive grip.
Clearly, even from an aerodynamic point of view, after a positive start, there is a need for vertical load to increase. The package brought by Red Bull to Suzuka showed the first tangible signs of improvement in Shanghai, with Max Verstappen’s gap line in race pace conditions increasing “in steps” at each corner, while remaining constant on straights. The RB20 seems to have taken a step forward in load efficiency compared to the competition, and this is definitely what the SF24 needs as well. The other factor that gives the impression that the car is urgently needs updates is that the progress and learning curve seems to be flattening out. The preparation work for the qualifying lap has clearly improved already, and it seems that in many respects the car in this configuration is starting to reach its limits, triggering the inevitable need to push these limits further and restart the work to try to reach them again on the track.
This time Fred Vasseur’s comments about the race were disappointing
Regarding the updates, the team principal of the red team didn’t mince words speaking to Sky microphones after the race, saying that everyone in the factory is working like crazy and you can’t ask for more, and according to Carlos Sainz, the update package in development has been delayed to maximize its gain, so it seems there is a lot simmering at the Ferrari Racing Department and the choice will be assessable only when we can measure the contribution these updates will bring to performance. As for the analysis of the race, however, we do not find Fred Vasseur’s comments in this case agreeable: the French manager stated that the main problem was qualifying since starting from the front row was not so out of the question given the performances, and that the race was compromised by starting so far back. While this may be somewhat true for Carlos Sainz, it is not for Charles Leclerc, who, taking advantage of the Safety Car that for once arrived at the right time, found himself third, restarting behind Lando Norris and Max Verstappen on equal tires and with 25 laps to go, thus with the effects of qualifying completely nullified. But the Monegasque driver crossed the finish line 23 seconds behind Max Verstappen and 10 behind Lando Norris, emphasizing that with the hard tire, there was no pace, beyond qualifying and any external factors.
In Miami for a different assessment, in Imola to see the updates
In any case, if the SF24 wasn’t a car ready for the championship after Australia, it’s not a car that should be scrapped after the Chinese Grand Prix. In Miami, temperatures should finally be higher (after this first part of the 2024 Formula 1 season raced in cool conditions) and the slow corners of the central sector could provide a completely different assessment, and a strong Ferrari on the American track would confirm the strengths and weaknesses of the current version of the SF24, with the large update package coming to the Imola circuit, in the next race to verify the quality of the work done by the Maranello technicians. Charles Leclerc hinted after the race that the aero update package will reveal Ferrari’s potential goals for 2024. So we will see if the red car in Miami will be a comeback and what potential the SF-24 project can actually reach.
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