Ferrari has grown as a team, but technical superiority is still missing. Ferrari heads to Abu Dhabi with more optimism, but McLaren remains the favorite at Yas Marina.

The winter rumors predicted a season dominated by Red Bull, albeit less decisively than what was seen from August 2022 onward. Instead, at the dawn of the final week of Formula 1, McLaren and Ferrari will be contending for the Constructors’ Championship thanks to technical improvements, but not only that, from these two giants of the premier class of motorsport. Starting from Miami, the MCL38 has undoubtedly been the best car in the field, allowing Andrea Stella’s team to gain 158 points over Red Bull and 76 over Ferrari since the Miami race. However, various rookie mistakes by the entire team, starting with the drivers, have kept the Constructors’ Championship open. Ferrari has had the best car only a few times (Melbourne, Monaco, Baku, Austin), but the team’s growth has allowed them to frequently maximize their points and remain in the fight for a title in race number 24, a milestone not to be underestimated.

Ferrari: the season wasn’t perfect, but execution and lineup made the difference compared to McLaren
The successor to the SF-23 has solved many of its predecessor’s issues, starting with significantly improved tire management and a clear increase in aerodynamic downforce (especially at the front) compared to what the 2023 car offered. However, the flaws in the 676 project were not absent, starting with more manageable ones like the lack of aerodynamic efficiency, which is now one of the strengths of the SF-24, and moving to problems—such as difficulties on single laps and in high-speed corners—that still affect the car’s performance. Even operationally, it cannot be called a perfect season: the development error in Barcelona came during the busiest part of the calendar and cost the team six races as the fourth overall force.

The “blackout” weekend in Montreal and the mistakes in Baku are likely what will cost Maranello the seventeenth title in the history of the Prancing Horse, but the growth throughout the year has been significant and is an important factor not to be overlooked, even if McLaren should finish ahead. Specifically, compared to McLaren and Red Bull, which statistically had the second-best car of the season, the lineup made the difference: Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz enjoyed the best seasons of their respective careers and were the best on the grid alongside the Hamilton-Russell duo. Carlos Sainz, in particular, showed a clear step forward in single-lap performance; despite qualifying struggles with tire warm-up, Leclerc proved to be a complete driver, making the difference against the Spaniard especially on Sundays and building a gap of almost 70 points over his teammate.

Ferrari heads to Abu Dhabi with more optimism, but McLaren remains the favorite at Yas Marina

Ferrari arrives in the United Arab Emirates aiming for a one-two finish and a podium without McLaren to clinch the title. However, even setting aside the 21-point gap, the Abu Dhabi weekend will not be easy. At Losail, there was a pace difference of about three-tenths between McLaren and Ferrari, mainly in long sweeping corners, with Red Bull slotting in between due to the track’s favorable characteristics. From this perspective, a more direct battle is expected between the MCL38 and SF-24 at Abu Dhabi, with the RB20 and W15 potentially in the mix if conditions align in their favor. Ferrari will have to decide whether to take the risk of using the ex-experimental floor on Leclerc’s car, as in Losail, or stick with the base SF-24, which should still be competitive given the layout and characteristics of the Yas Marina Circuit.

McLaren could make the difference, particularly in turns 1, 5, and 9, which are long-radius corners where Ferrari will need to defend. In medium-speed corners, the two teams are expected to be neck and neck, while Ferrari could leverage its strengths in traction, straight-line speed, and the various slow corners of Abu Dhabi. The characteristics of the track should favor the SF-24 more, partly due to the low-grip asphalt, which has often troubled the MCL38, particularly its front end. According to information from Pirelli, there is also a risk of graining, which has frequently been an ally of the SF-24 throughout the season. Additionally, temperatures could determine whether and to what extent Red Bull and Mercedes are competitive, potentially becoming decisive factors in the championship battle. Overall, very small gaps are expected between all four teams in both Qualifying, where Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz will need to minimize losses, and the Race, as explained by F1 expert Andrea Vergani for autoracer.