Ferrari has an important taboo to overcome amid short and medium-term future: here’s what it is

Scuderia Ferrari, like the other Formula 1 teams, is currently dealing with the long break, which is quite different from the one imposed in August. During these weeks, the teams are working hard in order to finalize the last aerodynamic package of updates to their cars. The goal is therefore to prepare as best as possible for the final stint of the 2024 Formula 1 season, starting with the United States Grand Prix, which is set to take place at the 5.513-kilometre Circuit of The Americas in Austin on Sunday, October 20. Six races are still to be contested, including six Sprint Races, where teams are called to improve their performances, as the final specifications might already incorporate technical solutions for next season’s projects.

It’s no secret that the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship will be very particular, as from next January, teams can begin designing the 2026 single-seaters, which will be very different from the current ones. Therefore, it is likely that several teams will approach the start of next season with evolutionary versions of their current cars. It’s hard to imagine a team going all-in for next year, sacrificing time and resources on the eve of a new regulatory revolution. This is why we should keep an eye on the balance of power in this final stretch of the current championship.

After atypical races like the Italian Grand Prix at the Monza circuit, which was won by Charles Leclerc for Ferrari and the street circuits of Baku and Singapore, where the Italian side missed out on some great opportunities to score more points, Formula 1 will, in less than three weeks, head to the permanent circuit in Austin, Texas. A track that has almost always rewarded the best technical project. For Scuderia Ferrari, it will be a reliable test in order to assess the effectiveness of the updates aerodynamic introduced first at Monza then in Singapore. Not to mention those updates that are currently “in the works” in the Maranello factory. Unfortunately, the Prancing Horse did not capitalize on its potential at two tracks that, on paper, were favorable for the Italian side considering the characteristics of the SF-24 single-seater, seeing its title hopes fade, at least concerning the Constructors’ Championship.

Mathematically, the historic Italian team is not out of the race. There are many fans and even F1 insiders who believe the matter is not yet closed if Ferrari can deliver a breakthrough in the United States Grand Prix. However, the feeling is that for the team led by Frederic Vasseur, the most important goal for the rest of the 2024 Formula 1 season is to fight for victory, regardless of the characteristics of the F1 tracks. Essentially, the Ferrari engineers and technicians aim for the versatility that allows the McLaren MCL38 to be dominant on any circuit and in any condition.

As in the 2022 championship, Ferrari has squandered the potential of a car that could have achieved more victories and podium finishes. Two years ago, power unit reliability issues and several questionable strategy decisions wasted the great potential of the F1-75 car, especially in the first part of the season, before the Maranello team was gradually outdeveloped by the Red Bull rivals. The reliability of the SF-24 has been good so far but not excellent. Moreover, the Italian team has paid heavily for errors made during race weekends. A great waste, given the unprecedented overall balance between the top teams. Never before this season had four teams won more than two races in an F1 championship.

Mathematically, Charles Leclerc is still in the race, despite the fact that even he is very realistic about his chances of winning the F1 title. The Monegasque driver pointed out that some atypical tracks like Monza have made Ferrari look competitive and he hopes the same happens after Singapore. But the Italian side needs to have the right expectations without seeking performance beyond the car’s capabilities, according to Charles Leclerc who explained that Ferrari are still working on developments and confirmed he is confident that everything is going well. In short, it’s pointless to insist on trying to overperform on tracks where the car cannot deliver at a high level.

Nevertheless, the Monegasque driver confirms that the development of the SF-24 is progressing correctly. A great sigh of relief, considering that the Maranello-based team went through a long rough patch due to the update introduced at the Circuit de Catalunya in the Spanish Grand Prix weekend. We are referring to the Ferrari floor, which significantly hampered the car’s development curve. Now historical circuits that have been challenging for the Italian team are coming up. On the tracks in Austin, Mexico, which the new layout, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, Ferrari has won only once, on the Texan circuit, thanks to Kimi Raikkonen’s last Formula 1 victory back in 2018.

This fact also highlights the poor trend of recent seasons, during which Ferrari’s development was frozen well in advance compared to its competitors. Now it seems that this will no longer be the case, and Ferrari is expected to at least fight for victory in the final stages of the 2024 Formula 1 season. Several updates are on the way to achieve this. We are not talking about revolutions but small innovations that will address some technical issues which have emerged in recent months. These aerodynamic updates should refine already functioning concepts, such as the latest version of the SF-24 floor and the front wing.

Reversing a negative trend will also be possible thanks to the foundation which Ferrari, like other F1 teams, is trying to build for next year. A championship where Ferrari has no intention of playing a supporting role. As mentioned, this year’s championship was essentially compromised by the three-month “performance gap” that developed after the Spanish Grand Prix. However, these last six races will play a decisive role in Ferrari’s future. We know that, from the Mexican Grand Prix onward, a further decision will be made.

Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur does not want to give up on the Constructors’ Championship, a point he has reiterated on several occasions during the last few weeks. Nevertheless, the Maranello team is considering the best strategies to dedicate more time to the project 677, namely the Ferrari SF-25 for next year, which, according to the wishes of President John Elkann, must be a car capable of competing for both Formula 1 world titles, especially considering the fact that Ferrari will count on a line-up formed by Charles Leclerc and seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton. Therefore, the last six races will also be used to study important concepts because, although it is essential to keep chasing dreams as long as the math doesn’t rule them out, using resources wisely in the coming months could provide a crucial future benefit for the Maranello team.