The Singapore Grand Prix promises to be a weekend that develops step by step, with no obvious favourite for victory. Ferrari has reasons for optimism because the twisting Marina Bay Street Circuit should reduce the impact of the SF-26’s power-unit deficit, although the characteristics of the track could also expose other weaknesses in the car.
Red Bull has shown significant progress in recent races but will be unable to exploit its usual straight-line advantage to the same extent in Singapore. Mercedes, meanwhile, arrives needing answers after the W17 underperformed in Malaysia, with the Sprint format adding another layer of difficulty by limiting practice time.
Ferrari opportunity in Singapore as power becomes less important
Ferrari arrives from a convincing Sepang weekend, at least in terms of outright performance. The SF-26 used in Malaysia was essentially the same specification seen at previous rounds, meaning the Kuala Lumpur podium was not the consequence of a sudden technical breakthrough. Instead, the conditions simply appeared to suit the characteristics of the Ferrari better.
Singapore offers a very different challenge. Marina Bay is one of the most twisting circuits of the season, and with the previous generation of cars it had the third-lowest percentage of lap time spent at full throttle, behind only Monaco and Mexico. That should make Ferrari’s shortage of power less damaging than at circuits dominated by long acceleration zones.
The smaller turbo used by the SF-26 could also help by improving response when accelerating away from the numerous slow corners. The broader challenge of balancing traction and speed around the venue can be explored through the Marina Bay circuit characteristics Ferrari must manage.
SF-26 traction weakness could still hurt Ferrari
However, Ferrari’s failure to win in Monaco serves as a reminder that reducing the importance of engine performance does not automatically make the Maranello team the benchmark. The SF-26 has generally performed well through high-speed corners that require a precise front end, but it has shown rear instability when traction becomes the dominant requirement, as seen at Baku and Monaco.
Singapore falls into that latter category. Teams also require a suspension package capable of absorbing kerbs and surface irregularities while maintaining strong mechanical grip, another area in which the 2026 Ferrari has struggled on several occasions.
Qualifying will be particularly important at Marina Bay because overtaking is difficult between the barriers. Ferrari could, however, find some assistance from the track surface. Recent analysis has already highlighted an SF-26 characteristic that could prove useful in Singapore.
Mercedes searching for answers after Sepang problems
Teams will again encounter an abrasive track surface in Singapore, although not to the same extent as in Malaysia. Asphalt roughness was one of the central themes of the Sepang weekend because of the influence it had on several aspects of car behaviour.
On abrasive surfaces, tyres tend to generate temperature quickly, making it easier to bring them into the correct operating window for a qualifying lap. The surface also affects balance and the way grip is generated, influencing the entire set-up process.
Ferrari has frequently performed well on more abrasive asphalt this season, including at Barcelona and in Malaysia. Mercedes, by contrast, struggled under those conditions during the most recent weekend.
The Brackley team therefore wants to understand exactly what went wrong at Sepang, where the W17 performed below expectations. One suspicion is that the track surface compromised Mercedes’ competitiveness, although there are also concerns that the upgrade package introduced in Malaysia may have contributed.
The W17 displayed unusual behaviour and suffered from understeer in slow corners, a weakness that could prove especially restrictive around Singapore’s tight layout. Toto Wolff has already announced that Mercedes will conduct a comparison during practice between the old and new W17 configurations, even though doing so will take valuable time away from normal weekend preparation.
If Mercedes can recover one of the strengths it has demonstrated repeatedly this season — traction out of slow corners — Kimi Antonelli could emerge as a serious contender for victory.
Questions remain over McLaren and Red Bull
McLaren faces questions similar to those surrounding Mercedes after the MCL40 appeared below its usual level during the previous two rounds. Its Baku difficulties could be attributed to circuit characteristics that were particularly unfavourable to the car, but more was expected in Malaysia.
It remains unclear how much the abrasive Sepang asphalt contributed to McLaren’s difficulties and how much the upgrade package introduced in Azerbaijan may have disrupted the balance of the project. Until two weeks ago, Singapore would have looked like a circuit where the reigning world champions could realistically target victory. Now, the immediate priority is to recover the form they have lost.
Red Bull arrives after its first victory of the season, achieved by Max Verstappen. A sequence of updates introduced from Monza onwards has produced a clear step forward for the RB22, although its greatest strength remains straight-line speed — an advantage that will become less important in Singapore.
The Milton Keynes car can instead rely on strong braking performance and traction out of slow corners. Those qualities could prove particularly valuable at Marina Bay and potentially deliver another positive weekend. Ferrari’s broader competitive position against Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren can be explored through the Ferrari vs F1 Rivals statistics.
Singapore Sprint format leaves little margin for error
The outcome of the weekend will depend heavily on the preparation completed by the teams back at their factories. Singapore hosts the final Sprint event of the season, meaning teams will have only one free-practice session in which to experiment with their cars.
Even FP1 will take place in conditions that are not particularly representative. The session is scheduled before sunset, when track temperatures will be higher than during qualifying and the main Grand Prix, both of which will take place at night. The full 2026 Singapore Grand Prix schedule shows how compressed the weekend will be.
For the race, managing rear thermal degradation is expected to be one of the key themes. Pirelli has selected the three softest compounds in its range — C3, C4 and C5 — increasing the importance of keeping rear tyre temperatures under control.
Qualifying could decide Singapore as overtaking remains difficult
Despite the tyre-management challenge, qualifying is likely to receive the greatest attention because passing is notoriously difficult between the walls of Marina Bay.
Brembo estimates that drivers will spend around 24 per cent of the lap using the brakes, a high figure that reflects the large number of braking zones. Those deceleration phases provide frequent opportunities to recharge the battery, making energy management across the lap easier.
That tends to push teams towards similar energy-deployment strategies, which in turn can make overtaking more difficult because there is less variation in the way electrical power is released around the lap.
That is particularly bad news for George Russell, who is set to fit a new power unit and start from the back of the grid. On a weekend where track position could prove decisive, the penalty could have significant consequences, while another strong result for Kimi Antonelli could move the championship leader even closer to the title.
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