Ferrari’s 2026 Dutch GP strategy left plenty of room for regret at Zandvoort. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton showed the race pace to challenge for the podium, yet a combination of qualifying positions, Virtual Safety Car timing and conservative strategic choices ultimately left the Scuderia fourth and fifth. The final Dutch Grand Prix classification therefore told only part of the story.
Our hopes for an eventful race were certainly fulfilled. The Dutch Grand Prix may not have been dramatically affected by rain, but it still delivered plenty of action and unpredictability, far more than the Sprint. Max Verstappen’s red flag and several retirements and collisions also played their part, with a number of incidents requiring Virtual Safety Car periods.
Unfortunately, Max Verstappen was forced to retire very early, at the beginning of the second lap, following what he admitted was a misjudgement. He believed he could accelerate without any problems, but after reaching a damp section of the circuit he lost control of the car and crashed into the barriers. It was hardly the ideal way to say goodbye to the final edition of his home Grand Prix.
Lando Norris took victory, demonstrating the significant step McLaren has made, ahead of the Mercedes cars of Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell. Mercedes continues to suffer from an ongoing shortage of updates. Ferrari finished fourth and fifth, paying the price for qualifying below its potential and suffering particularly unfortunate timing with the Virtual Safety Cars.
The disappointing Ferrari result was not entirely caused by Saturday or by decisions made on the pit wall. Even so, there were moments when the team perhaps could have taken more risks. That becomes particularly important when analysing how the race unfolded.
2026 Dutch GP strategy analysis: 60 pit stops transform the race
We had expected a two-stop Grand Prix. Instead, most drivers effectively made four stops, while some made as many as five. The result was an unpredictable race right through to the end of the 72 laps, with no fewer than 60 pit stops.
Because Max Verstappen’s red flag came after the second lap, we will consider one fewer stop when analysing the race itself, although from a strategic perspective it is only right to mention every tyre change.
Given the remarkable number of tyre changes and the amount of strategic variation, rather than describing every single approach in detail, the complete picture is better illustrated by the strategy graphic. What matters most here are the most successful strategies and those that proved particularly interesting. Before the race, Pirelli had already identified the Hard tyre as a key Dutch GP option, but the circumstances on Sunday created a much more complicated picture.
Retired drivers: Alex Albon (Williams), Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac), Sergio Perez (Cadillac), Lance Stroll (Aston Martin), Oliver Bearman (Haas), Max Verstappen (Red Bull).
Lando Norris claims his second consecutive victory
Lando Norris and Andrea Kimi Antonelli appeared to follow almost identical strategies, at least until lap 54 of 72, when Norris overtook Antonelli. In reality, however, the two drivers managed the central part of the Grand Prix in very different ways.
For the second standing start, Lando Norris lined up on a used set of Soft tyres, while Andrea Kimi Antonelli chose used Mediums. The Italian produced the better getaway and immediately beat the reigning World Champion off the line.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli managed the opening stint well. Both drivers made their first pit stop on exactly the same lap, but their approaches then began to diverge across the two Hard-tyre stints that followed.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli used his first set of C2 tyres for only 19 laps without being significantly faster than Lando Norris, whereas the McLaren driver extended his stint to 26 laps. That gave Norris fresher tyres in the following stint and consequently better pace.
On lap 54, Lando Norris completed a superb overtake that opened the door to victory. When the Virtual Safety Car was subsequently deployed during lap 55, Norris simply had to continue with his existing strategy. It proved to be the winning decision, allowing him to take the chequered flag 11.5 seconds ahead of Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
The Mercedes driver instead took advantage of the VSC to fit used Soft tyres. Andrea Kimi Antonelli eventually finished second, helped by team-mate George Russell, who did not resist the overtake and actually facilitated the move, even though doing so placed his own third position under threat.
George Russell, running on Hard tyres fitted at around lap 40, nevertheless managed to keep the two Ferraris behind him despite Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc both attacking on used Soft tyres.
Fernando Alonso produces a lion-hearted drive
Before turning to Ferrari’s race, another performance deserves attention: Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin delivered encouraging signs in the Netherlands.
The new car introduced in Hungary and the new Honda power-unit specification that debuted at Zandvoort appear to have the potential to fight for points, and Fernando Alonso provided the evidence. Starting from 18th, the Spaniard made the most of everything that happened around him to gain positions.
After fitting a fresh set of Soft tyres for the second standing start following the red flag, Fernando Alonso decided to complete the remainder of the Grand Prix with only one additional pit stop. He produced an exceptionally long opening stint of 32 laps on the Softs before finishing with a 37-lap stint on the Hard compound.
It was a masterclass in tyre management that allowed Fernando Alonso to finish ninth. In effect, only Nico Hulkenberg finished ahead of him outside the top seven, which was occupied by drivers representing the leading teams.
Starting, it is worth repeating, from 18th position, Fernando Alonso beat Alpine, Racing Bulls, Cadillac and Williams. Williams also effectively scored an own goal late in the race, although its cars had only been running 14th and 15th at the time.
Aston Martin leaves the Netherlands with something to build on. Fernando Alonso may have found another reason to remain in Formula 1 for a little longer.
Ferrari Dutch GP strategy: The pace was there, but something was missing
Ferrari’s result was once again a major disappointment for its supporters. Yet the finishing positions disguise how competitive the SF-26 actually was in race trim. The car had arrived at Zandvoort with an important floor and rear-wing upgrade package, and Sunday offered clear indications of the performance available.
If we set aside the first stint, when George Russell, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were trapped in a train of cars led by Oscar Piastri, Charles Leclerc was almost always the fastest driver on the circuit during the other stints. Lewis Hamilton, meanwhile, was producing lap times very similar to those of his Ferrari team-mate.
When the Virtual Safety Car emerged around lap 54, Charles Leclerc was running fifth, 2.3 seconds behind George Russell and with noticeably stronger pace. Lewis Hamilton was in third position on extremely old Hard tyres, having only just been overtaken by Lando Norris and Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
If Charles Leclerc had decided to remain out for a long time on that set of tyres, he would have been in the fight with George Russell for third place. Instead, by returning to the pits together with Lewis Hamilton during the neutralisation, he was forced to push extremely hard afterwards and still ended the race fifth. The VSC pit stops put both Ferrari drivers onto Soft tyres for the closing phase.
Given the pace Charles Leclerc had, Ferrari should arguably have taken the risk. Lewis Hamilton needed to stop, but Charles Leclerc did not. Even in the worst-case scenario, the Monegasque would probably still have finished fifth after being overtaken by his team-mate, but at least Ferrari would have tried something different.
With Charles Leclerc, this was the moment to take a chance and see what happened. This was the right day to do it. Sometimes a team has to listen to that shiver running down its spine and dare to take a risk.
That said, it would be unfair to place all the blame on Ferrari. The VSC around lap 54 was a significant blow to Charles Leclerc, while the second neutralisation with two laps remaining also worked against the Scuderia.
Both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc had recovered the entire gap and were attacking George Russell in an attempt to steal the final podium position. Lewis Hamilton was ahead of Charles Leclerc, helped by the different strategies and by the earlier VSC, which had allowed him to move ahead of his team-mate.
Lewis Hamilton was preparing to attack George Russell when the two Williams cars made contact, forcing race control to deploy the final Virtual Safety Car. That incident gave Russell an opportunity to catch his breath before securing third place.
The fine margins explain why Ferrari left Zandvoort feeling it had achieved far less than its performance suggested. A separate analysis of Ferrari’s Dutch GP tyre gamble similarly highlighted how Norris was able to extract more from the Hard compound when the race entered its decisive phase.
Ferrari cannot afford to be afraid of making mistakes
Ferrari was not responsible for everything that went wrong in the Dutch Grand Prix, but strategically it chose the simpler option. The team needs to take more risks, particularly when the underlying pace of the car gives it the opportunity to do so.
At times, Ferrari appears almost afraid of making a mistake, and that can limit the team more than any unsuccessful technical upgrade. Knowing when to take a risk is an art. Feeling fear is natural because it provides an awareness of the consequences, but the important thing is knowing how to manage that risk.
If Ferrari wants to aim for the very top, it has to learn how to do that properly. The wider concern is not simply tyre strategy but execution across an entire weekend, something also highlighted by Ferrari’s broader Zandvoort performance analysis.
Frédéric Vasseur reached a similar conclusion after the race, arguing that Ferrari had the pace to fight for victory at the Dutch Grand Prix but needed to execute the weekend more effectively.
Lewis Hamilton was equally reluctant to blame the outcome purely on fortune. After finishing just behind George Russell, the seven-time World Champion rejected the suggestion that Ferrari had simply been unlucky, reflecting the frustration generated by such a narrow missed opportunity.
Pirelli explains why the Dutch GP became so unpredictable
Pirelli Motorsport Director Dario Marrafuschi reflected on the circumstances that transformed the final Dutch Grand Prix into such an unpredictable strategic contest.
“The last race at the Zandvoort circuit gave us plenty of unpredictability. The weather conditions played an important role, with the rain shower before the start returning the track to a greener state. Degradation, meanwhile, proved significant, also because of the greater wear caused by the condition of the asphalt. After the stint following the restart, the teams immediately understood that conditions would not allow them to remain competitive with a one-stop strategy.”
Dario Marrafuschi continued: “After the first red flag, almost ten different strategies therefore emerged, with significant differences even between the top teams. We witnessed a very interesting Grand Prix from a strategic perspective. The teams were able to exploit the characteristics of each compound, all of which proved effective under specific conditions. Particularly significant in this respect was the use of the red tyre by Andrea Kimi Antonelli and the two Ferrari drivers in the closing stages of the race to recover ground on their direct rivals and, in the Italian’s case, even manage to gain a position on his team-mate.”
Ultimately, Zandvoort demonstrated both sides of Ferrari’s current situation. The SF-26 had the speed to threaten the podium and potentially achieve considerably more, but performance alone was not enough. Between difficult timing, conservative choices and circumstances outside the team’s control, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc crossed the line fourth and fifth on an afternoon that offered Ferrari much more than the final result suggests.
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