Ferrari: did the Safety Car cost Charles Leclerc a podium in Sakhir? | F1 Bahrain GP breakdown. Ferrari's strategy in Bahrain was disrupted by an untimely Safety Car.

If one had to sum it up, what would be the balance sheet of the Bahrain Grand Prix for Ferrari? Just like in Suzuka, in Sakhir as well the most straightforward and honest response came from Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque driver said it was obviously disappointing to give everything and finish fourth, a scenario that didn’t make him smile. But, he added, for the time being, this was the situation they were in. They did their best over the weekend, but their best wasn’t enough.

These were the comments of a driver who had different hopes and expectations for the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season, yet had to confront a reality in which Ferrari still had to assert itself among the chasing pack. The fourth and fifth place finish at the 5.412-kilometre Bahrain International Circuit in Sakhir was a bitter pill, not so much because of the points haul, but due to the missed podium, with the Italian side still sitting at zero podiums for the season.

However, one question remains: how much did the entrance of the Safety Car after mid-race cost Ferrari, at a point when Charles Leclerc appeared to be fully in the fight for a top-three finish? This was one of the topics addressed by Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur, who emphasized that the timing of the Safety Car was the worst possible moment for Ferrari’s strategic plan.

In fact, the Maranello team had chosen a completely different tactic from its closest rivals, starting on the medium tires based on a dual reasoning, even at the cost of losing second place with Charles Leclerc at lights out, since it was likely many would get rid of the soft tires early on, when it generally made the most sense to do so. While it is true that track position matters less in Bahrain than at other circuits, choosing a different strategy, especially when starting at the front—always carries risks, particularly if one gets stuck in traffic.

Ferrari followed the opposite reasoning: on one hand, starting on the medium tires offered a bit more strategic flexibility based on how the race unfolded, and on the other hand, it allowed them to run the soft tires in the final stint with a lighter car, placing less stress on the tire and offering more grip at a stage where the SF-25 tends to show more signs of strain.

Although it wasn’t the primary strategy based on the Pirelli recommendations, the one-stop option was also on the table, as Charles Leclerc mentioned over the radio at one point during the Bahrain Grand Prix. It was one of the scenarios Pirelli had considered, though only as a remote possibility, as very specific conditions would have been required for it to work—especially with the hard compound, which proved as slow as expected.

As the race unfolded, Ferrari would have likely followed its initial plan: two stints on the medium, which was one of the main advantages they had over Mercedes, followed by a final stint on the soft. Compared to last year, the medium tire had been softened, making it a perfect middle ground: effective both in terms of performance and durability.

Due to the grip difference, Charles Leclerc immediately lost two positions at the start, falling to fourth, behind George Russell, arguably his main rival for the podium, and Lando Norris, who should have had an easier time moving up the field given the MCL39’s competitiveness, were it not for various mistakes that weighed more than they might have seemed.

As expected, Ferrari extended the first stint, creating a four-lap delta over George Russell and as many as seven laps over Lando Norris. For the British McLaren driver, the choice was almost forced: it was clear he was losing time behind George Russell and also had to serve a five-second penalty for a start-line infraction.

At that point, the seven-lap offset to Charles Leclerc started to matter, allowing the Monegasque to close the gap rather quickly. And this is where the race became strategically interesting. Looking at the start times of the second stint, it is immediately clear that the approaches were different.

With the advantage of having two sets of mediums, Charles Leclerc pushed immediately, setting fast laps in quick succession. For comparison, his first full flying lap in the second stint was about a second quicker than George Russell’s. In essence, the two drivers had completely different approaches.

The Mercedes driver knew that, lacking a second set of mediums, he had only two options: to go with the hard compound or try to manage his current set to use a second set of softs at the end, thus matching Ferrari’s strategy, a scenario not far-fetched, already seen last year, although the track back then was a few degrees cooler.

That is why his stint was cautious from the start, and if one examines the lap times closely, it is clear he maintained a consistent pace as the tires wore down, a sign that he was managing them from the beginning. This was also confirmed by telemetry data, which showed George Russell was managing the tires both in fast sections, like turns 6/7 and 12, and during traction phases out of slower corners, delaying throttle application and putting more strain on the front tires than the rear.

While the seven-lap difference made it relatively easy for Charles Leclerc to get ahead of Lando Norris, things were slightly different with George Russell. As the tires wore, the Mercedes driver began to push more in some areas of the track, keeping a steady pace, while the Monegasque started struggling with dirty air.

Charles Leclerc explained that he was beginning to have some trouble behind the Mercedes W16 car as his tires were overheating, and he thought they could have forced George Russell to pit, which would have been great, but they didn’t manage to do it. In reality, just moments before the Safety Car came out, the Ferrari driver had managed to get within a second of George Russell and that could have been the decisive turning point. But in the laps leading up to it, the gap kept stretching and shrinking like an elastic band, due to what Charles Leclerc had mentioned, namely letting the tires breathe.

So how would things have changed without the Safety Car? Everything would have depended on the pressure applied to George Russell. Probably, the Brit still had something in reserve, and it’s hard to imagine Mercedes pitting early for the hard compound, especially since they avoided that tire even after the Safety Car.

If Charles Leclerc had managed to overtake the British driver, which was far from guaranteed, then the podium would have been truly within reach. But if not, the scenario would have shifted dramatically. One thing to note: when Charles Leclerc caught up to the Mercedes, the gap to Lando Norris stabilized at about 2 seconds.

Had George Russell not increased his pace, Lando Norris would have been back in the game. The fact that the Ferrari driver still had another set of mediums was a major advantage, and if the gap had remained steady, it would have allowed him to reduce the seven-lap deficit that had penalized him in the second stint.

Of course, the Monegasque would have had to do fewer laps on the soft compound and with a lighter car, but McLaren might have forced the issue, with Lando Norris pushing the mediums harder, which effectively was the most competitive tire on Sunday at the Sakhir circuit. In fact, all of Charles Leclerc’s hopes hinged on a few laps before the second and final pit stop.

Those questions, however, were wiped away by the Safety Car, which not only changed the plans but also reshaped the outlook of a race that had plenty of intrigue. After the Safety Car came out, Ferrari went for the safest option, the hard tire, believing they could not complete the remaining distance on the soft, while Mercedes took a more aggressive approach.

Frederic Vasseur explained that, with the Safety Car, they had no choice: for them, doing 24 laps on the soft was ambitious, but for Mercedes it paid off. The French manager added that the track was probably more rubbered in and cooler. He believed their initial strategy was good, they paid a bit of a price in the first stint by extending it, but the pace was solid, and it would have been a good race without the Safety Car. However, the Ferrari team principal concluded that they couldn’t complain about the outcome of the Bahrain Grand Prix, as it is part of the game.

— see video above —