Ferrari dealt setback as Mercedes is not the ADUO reference benchmark. Red Bull's .

The technical picture emerging over the past few hours introduces an unexpected variable that could have a direct impact on the interpretation of current power unit hierarchies and, above all, on Ferrari’s future prospects in Formula 1. Contrary to what had been assumed until just a few weeks ago, Mercedes would not actually be the reference point for defining the new ADUO-related tables. If confirmed, this reconstruction would significantly change the way performance levels of modern power units are evaluated.

The unexpected reference: Red Bull Ford ahead of everyone?

According to several paddock rumours reported by the British outlet, the technical benchmark used for calibrating ADUO parameters could instead be the Red Bull Racing engine developed in collaboration with Ford. While this scenario has not yet been officially confirmed, it is supported by analysis from The Race, which identifies the Milton Keynes-based V6 as the absolute reference in terms of pure power output, reportedly delivering higher horsepower figures than the Mercedes High Performance Powertrains unit produced in Brixworth.

This potential shift opens the door to a completely different interpretation of the current competitive hierarchy. Not only could Mercedes fail to be the absolute performance benchmark, but there is also a theoretical possibility—although considered unlikely—that the Brackley-based team could even fall within the 2% margin defined by ADUO regulations. This would be far from a marginal detail, as it would redefine the very concept of a “dominant engine” under the current regulatory framework and could give the German manufacturer greater flexibility in developing and refining its power unit.

One of the most interesting aspects of this situation concerns the nature of Red Bull’s performance profile. The power unit appears to deliver extremely high peak figures, likely surpassing its competitors in outright performance. However, it operates within a highly complex chassis environment. The RB22 is proving to be a difficult car to interpret, unpredictable in behaviour and far removed from the overall efficiency demonstrated by previous Red Bull models.

It is therefore no coincidence that neither Max Verstappen nor Isack Hadjar have been able to fully exploit its potential. The limitation does not appear to lie within the power unit itself, but rather in the overall integration between the car, its aerodynamic package, and the way that package is managed across different track conditions.

Ferrari: a less reassuring scenario than expected

For Ferrari, this reconstruction represents anything but positive news. At Maranello, the assumption had been that Mercedes would serve as the key reference point, meaning that the performance gap to be closed would be measured against that specific technological baseline.

If, however, the highest point of the performance scale is actually occupied by the Red Bull Ford engine, then Ferrari’s entire correlation and development process may have been built around a less advantageous benchmark. In such a case, the percentage gap relative to Mercedes would appear smaller, but with fewer realistic opportunities for recovery once regulatory constraints are taken into account.

This does not automatically mean that Ferrari’s actual deficit is larger than previously thought. On the contrary, according to the same sources, it is plausible that the real gap is not as significant as some internal narratives within the paddock have suggested. However, the key issue lies in the direction of comparison: the reference is no longer Mercedes’ consistency and efficiency, but rather a more extreme and less linear performance peak.

From a strategic perspective, this distinction is crucial. It is precisely this shift in benchmark definition that represents the most destabilising factor for Ferrari. The concern is not only about the current performance gap, but also about the risk that the regulatory framework has been calibrated against a less favourable reference point than originally assumed. If that proves to be the case, recovering lost ground could become significantly more complex for the Maranello-based team in the medium term.