Ferrari can prevent Mercedes from securing the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship at the Mexico City Grand Prix with as few as five points, even if the German team finishes first and second. Mercedes enters the weekend with a commanding 133-point advantage, but the title can only be decided in Mexico if Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell deliver a particularly strong result while Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton collect very few points.
For Mercedes, Mexico represents the first opportunity to reclaim the Constructors’ crown after five seasons without winning it. For Ferrari, the immediate objective is to extend the championship contest to the São Paulo Grand Prix on 8 November. Despite the substantial points deficit, the Scuderia still has a mathematical chance of denying Toto Wolff’s team the title.
Mercedes leads Ferrari by 133 points in the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship
Following the United States Grand Prix in Austin, Mercedes sits at the top of the championship with 607 points, while Ferrari occupies second place on 474. The difference of 133 points leaves the Italian team facing an exceptionally difficult challenge with five Grands Prix remaining.
Nevertheless, Ferrari is the only constructor still mathematically capable of catching Mercedes. A total of 215 points remains available across the final five races, meaning the championship has not yet been settled.
Even if Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were to secure five consecutive one-two finishes, however, Ferrari could reach a maximum total of only 689 points. Such a sequence would also represent a remarkable turnaround, given that the Scuderia has not achieved a one-two finish for more than two years.
The points situation demonstrates just how close Mercedes is to securing the championship. Yet the specific permutations for Mexico mean the German team cannot simply win the race and assume the title will be decided.
How Mercedes can win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ title in Mexico
To become Constructors’ champions at the conclusion of the Mexico City Grand Prix, Mercedes must increase its advantage over Ferrari from 133 points to at least 172. That requires Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell to outscore the two Ferrari drivers by a minimum of 39 points.
Only two finishing combinations would allow Mercedes to achieve that objective:
- Mercedes finishes first and second: A one-two result would deliver 43 points. Ferrari could score no more than four points for Mercedes to clinch the championship.
- Mercedes finishes first and third: Victory combined with third place would produce 40 points. In this scenario, Ferrari could score no more than one point for the title to be decided.
Both scenarios require a Mercedes victory and a double podium finish. If neither combination occurs, the championship decision will automatically move beyond Mexico.
These outcomes can also be explored through the F1 Championship Points Calculator, which allows different results and championship permutations to be compared.
What Ferrari needs to stop Mercedes celebrating the title
Despite its enormous championship deficit, Ferrari does not need to defeat Mercedes on track to prevent the Constructors’ title from being decided in Mexico. A relatively modest points finish would be sufficient, depending on how the two Mercedes drivers perform.
If Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell secure first and second places, the Scuderia must collect at least five points. A sixth-place finish for either Charles Leclerc or Lewis Hamilton would therefore be enough to keep the championship mathematically alive, even if the other Ferrari driver fails to score.
The requirement becomes even smaller if Mercedes finishes first and third. In that situation, Ferrari needs only two points, meaning a ninth-place finish for either driver would postpone Mercedes’ celebrations.
The difference between these scenarios is significant. Mercedes could achieve its strongest possible two-car result and still be denied the championship if Ferrari scores five points. Equally, a victory and third place would not be sufficient unless the Maranello team finishes with no more than a single point.
The Italian team’s responsibility is therefore considerably simpler than its overall championship position might suggest. Ferrari does not have to overturn the 133-point gap in Mexico; it only has to prevent that deficit from growing by the amount required to settle the title.
Ferrari’s Austin performance offers hope ahead of Mexico GP
Ferrari approaches the Mexican weekend following an encouraging performance at the United States Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc finished second in Austin, while Lewis Hamilton took fourth, providing the Scuderia with a strong combined result.
Those performances reflected the progress the team has made in recent races. The improvements were particularly apparent in the SF-26’s competitive race pace at Austin, where Ferrari’s latest developments helped the car deliver a stronger showing.
Charles Leclerc also emerged from the weekend with renewed confidence in Ferrari’s prospects, believing the team could still fight for another Formula 1 victory during the 2026 season.
If Ferrari maintains a similar level of competitiveness in Mexico, Mercedes will face a difficult task in achieving the enormous points swing required. The Scuderia’s recent performance suggests that collecting the small number of points needed to extend the championship is a realistic objective.
However, the Mexican Grand Prix will present a fresh challenge for both teams. The final outcome will depend on the performance of the Mercedes W17 and Ferrari SF-26, together with the finishing positions of all four drivers.
Mercedes could secure its ninth Constructors’ Championship
Mercedes has established its position at the top of the 2026 standings through the competitiveness of the W17 and the results delivered by Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell throughout the campaign.
The German team is also approaching a potentially historic moment in the Drivers’ Championship, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli closing in on his first world title. Mercedes could therefore have the opportunity to celebrate both championships during the same Grand Prix weekend.
A Constructors’ Championship triumph in Mexico would represent the ninth such title in Mercedes’ history and its first since 2021. It would end a five-year period without the trophy and confirm the team’s return to the top of Formula 1.
Nevertheless, Ferrari retains control over whether the Constructors’ Championship can be settled this weekend. Even a single points-scoring result could prove decisive in denying Mercedes an early coronation.
Could the Constructors’ Championship decision move to Brazil?
If Mercedes fails to achieve either of the two necessary finishing combinations, or Ferrari scores enough points to prevent the required increase in the championship gap, the title fight will continue to the next round.
The São Paulo Grand Prix, scheduled for 8 November, would then become the next opportunity for Mercedes to complete its championship campaign. The remaining races would also give Ferrari further chances to reduce the deficit, although its mathematical prospects remain extremely limited.
For Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, the immediate target is to reproduce the competitiveness demonstrated in Austin and collect enough points to keep the championship undecided.
Mercedes is firmly in control of the title race, but Mexico could still deliver an important delay. With 133 points separating the teams before the weekend, the decisive calculation is straightforward: a Mercedes one-two would require Ferrari to score at least five points, while a Mercedes first-and-third finish would require only two.
That narrow margin could determine whether Toto Wolff’s team celebrates the 2026 Constructors’ Championship in Mexico City or must wait until the next Grand Prix.
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