With only three races left in what has turned out to be a disappointing 2025 Formula 1 season for Scuderia Ferrari, many fans are wondering if there is still any realistic chance of seeing the Maranello-based team take a victory before the year ends. Charles Leclerc recently offered his perspective on this question.
After the strong momentum gained at the end of the 2024 campaign, Ferrari entered the 2025 season with ambitions of fighting for both world titles. However, the SF-25 project has failed to live up to expectations. The car’s performance never truly matched its rivals, leaving the Scuderia without a single win so far. With only three rounds remaining, the team’s best results have been podium finishes, and Leclerc has now shared his honest view on the likelihood of achieving a victory before the season finale.
Encouraging performances overshadowed by bad luck
Despite some promising showings that included two podium finishes in the United States and Mexico, Ferrari was expected to struggle in Brazil. During the Sprint weekend, the team focused on maximizing the car’s balance and setup, and by qualifying, Leclerc had managed to secure third on the grid—proof that a podium finish was within reach. Unfortunately, a stroke of bad luck ruined both Leclerc’s and Lewis Hamilton’s races, as contact on the opening laps caused significant damage and forced both drivers to retire early.
Leclerc’s estimation of Ferrari’s win chances
After qualifying in third place for the Brazilian Grand Prix, Charles Leclerc was asked whether he believed Ferrari could still win a race before the end of 2025. The Monegasque driver smiled and replied: “I’d say the chances of finishing the season with a win are about 16%.” His humorous answer reflected the growing frustration and limited hope within the team after a season of missed opportunities. Realistically, unless a miracle occurs, Ferrari’s SF-25 seems destined to close the season without a single victory, even though there has been visible progress in the last few rounds.
That progress, however, appears to come more from improved execution and race management rather than genuine performance upgrades. Ferrari has not introduced major technical developments to the SF-25 since the Spa-Francorchamps Grand Prix, which means that while operations have become smoother, the car’s raw speed has essentially plateaued.
Las Vegas and the final chances for redemption
The next race in Las Vegas might represent Ferrari’s last faint hope of a win in 2025. Yet, on paper, the favorites remain McLaren, even though the Woking-based team historically struggles in the “City of Sin.” Mercedes could also emerge as a strong contender, especially since George Russell claimed victory on the Strip circuit during last year’s event.
Ferrari’s main problem is that the SF-25 lacks a standout strength—a specific type of corner or track layout where it can dominate. This makes it difficult for the team to exploit any circuit-specific advantage. The Maranello outfit is expected to face challenges in Qatar, while conditions in Abu Dhabi could suit them slightly better, though even there, a race win seems unlikely.
Unless something extraordinary happens—perhaps a twist of fate, unexpected weather, or a chaotic race—Ferrari may have to accept closing the 2025 campaign without a victory. For fans, the hope remains that the lessons from this troubled season will pave the way for a far stronger performance in 2026.
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