Energy puzzle: mistakes, surprises and no certainties—not even for Ferrari
The 2026 Formula 1 World Championship has become one giant puzzle. Energy management has turned into the biggest unknown for fans, journalists and even the teams themselves. Every time the calendar moves from one type of circuit to another—whether from a permanent track to a street circuit, or from a stop-and-go layout to one dominated by high-speed corners—the same questions inevitably arise.
Who will be the favourite? Which team will benefit from the circuit characteristics? Will Ferrari be in a stronger position, or will the SF-26 once again struggle?
These are exactly the same questions we ask ourselves every race weekend. Sometimes the predictions prove accurate, while other times they miss the mark completely. Whenever we confidently suggest that Ferrari will either struggle or excel at a particular circuit, those conclusions are based on careful technical analysis rather than simple speculation.
Predicting Formula 1 performance has never been more difficult
The challenge of forecasting the competitive order has never been as complex as it is in 2026.
Until last season, analysing a circuit was relatively straightforward. The focus was mainly on the track layout, the mechanical characteristics of each car and the amount of aerodynamic downforce available. This year, however, those factors alone are no longer enough.
One of the biggest mistakes anyone can make is continuing to analyse races using the same criteria that worked in previous seasons. It is an error that many observers—including ourselves—have already made more than once this year.
Following the Austrian Grand Prix, for example, we looked back at Ferrari’s encouraging pace in Barcelona, considered the sectors where Lewis Hamilton had been particularly competitive, evaluated the latest power unit developments and analysed tyre management. Based on all those factors, we concluded that Silverstone would offer Ferrari a much better opportunity than Spielberg.
We expected the Scuderia to recover and potentially establish itself as the second-fastest team. That prediction now appears accurate if Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc can maintain the level of performance they displayed on Friday. Even so, at this stage it would be difficult to claim that the forecast was based on certainty rather than a degree of good fortune.
On paper, Silverstone should have favoured Mercedes
Looking purely at Silverstone’s layout, Mercedes seemed the obvious favourite.
The British circuit features long straights and fast, flowing sections that place enormous emphasis on efficient energy management. Those characteristics have consistently suited the Mercedes power unit, which has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to harvest electrical energy efficiently even on circuits where, as Fernando Alonso famously describes them, the available “charging stations” are limited.
Ferrari, by contrast, has encountered difficulties on similar circuits earlier this season, with races such as Miami—and, to some extent, Japan—highlighting the limitations of its package.
Despite Lewis Hamilton‘s Sprint pole position, Mercedes remains a serious contender throughout the remainder of the Silverstone weekend.
The energy mystery is confusing everyone
Throughout the week, our expectation was that Ferrari would bounce back from Austria, particularly in race pace. However, considering Red Bull’s progress at Spielberg and the fact that McLaren also benefits from Mercedes power units, it was impossible to accurately predict where the SF-26 would fit into the competitive order.
That uncertainty perfectly illustrates how decisive energy management has become under the 2026 regulations.
The situation has reached the point where not only journalists and analysts struggle to forecast race weekends, but the teams themselves are facing exactly the same uncertainty. Engineers are asking many of the same questions because the competitive picture can change dramatically from one circuit to another.
Ferrari itself admitted upon arriving at Silverstone on Thursday that both the British Grand Prix and the upcoming Spa-Francorchamps weekend were expected to be particularly challenging events for the team.
Then the cars finally took to the circuit.
Suddenly, Ferrari emerged as the benchmark during the long runs in the only Free Practice session before Lewis Hamilton secured Sprint pole and Charles Leclerc qualified fourth.
It was yet another reminder that, in modern Formula 1, the management of hybrid energy has become the single biggest variable in determining performance. More than ever before, predicting the competitive order from one circuit to the next has become an exercise filled with uncertainty—even for the teams themselves.
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