The return of ground effect has created a Formula 1 extremely difficult for engineers. When the current technical regulations of Formula 1 were announced, there was a certain excitement. The return of ground effect was promising in many ways. First of all, the goal was to substantially reduce aerodynamic disturbances for chasing cars, theoretically making close duels and overtakes more likely. And then, from a purely technical point of view, there was the return of the Venturi effect under the car as the main source of aerodynamic downforce. A concept from a past era but also something to rediscover and explore, with the promise of unlocking new limits and records for cars on track. The combination of new regulations and the introduction of the budget cap was also meant to help keep the grid close, preventing excessive laggards and unbridgeable gaps. Out of all these goals, only a (small) part of the initial promises has actually been fulfilled. The grid is certainly tighter: in 2021 at Barcelona, between the first and last in Q1 there was a 2-second gap; this year only 8 tenths, a constant trend practically at every race. But beyond this, in this final year of this technical formula, we can now identify more defeats than victories against expectations: car aerodynamics have progressively become more complicated, pushing in directions that today generate at least as much aerodynamic disturbance as the old regulations, making close following just as difficult again.
Moreover, the cars have proven among the most complex ever built in terms of understanding and exploiting potential. The mechanical platform is now the real limiting factor on performance, with aerodynamics near the development ceiling, often behaving differently from simulations due to suspension setup constraints. Restrictions on simulations and wind tunnel use help hide the problems engineers and drivers face on track. Tires, with their tiny operating window (to which teams themselves significantly contribute with their demands to Pirelli), add another layer of difficulty, contributing to a Formula 1 that is technically a real puzzle only a few can sometimes solve.
Two teams share eight world titles, while the absence of the other two creates the dominance. If the difficulty coefficient is very high, it is also true that in these four years we can identify two seasons of technical dominance (or potential dominance). The first is clearly 2023, with Red Bull winning 21 out of 22 races. This dominance actually started in mid-2022 and extended into the first third of 2024, when McLaren, the rising papaya arrow, appeared on the scene, showing typical dominant characteristics this season: constructors’ title already sealed and the drivers’ title practically limited to their drivers after just a third of the scheduled races. In the end, only these two teams will share the eight world titles awarded in the “wing car” era, despite four teams on the grid that can be considered “Top Teams” by resources, commitment, and drivers: Ferrari and Mercedes are missing.
The real problem, looking at the facts on track, is not only the dominance of certain teams but that the dominance ultimately comes directly from the inability of the Maranello and Brackley teams to produce cars truly capable of fighting for championships. Let’s quickly review these four seasons to clarify this point. It starts in 2022. Ferrari starts strong, Charles Leclerc leads the standings, but the F1-75 falters due to the introduction of TD39, floor flexibility issues, and other factors. From the French GP, where Charles Leclerc crashed while leading, Max Verstappen wins 9 of 11 races and Red Bull wins the Constructors’ title. McLaren is still far behind, while Mercedes, after closing a dominant 2021 season, tries the “zero-pod” approach to gain an edge. It won’t work, and Toto Wolff pushes hard amid complaints about porpoising and the introduction of technical directives.
During the winter, common thought was Mercedes could benefit from the directives and present a competitive car in 2023, while Ferrari could “fix” the balance issues that directives had somehow damaged. Neither kept the promise, showing they hadn’t fully grasped the true secrets of the technical regulations. The result was one of the most overwhelming dominations in Formula 1 history, with mid-field teams like Aston Martin able to regularly fight for podiums thanks to the vacuum left by SF23 and W14. In the second half of the season, McLaren begins to emerge near the front, starting from behind but clearly understanding how to make these cars work.
2024 begins with Red Bull-Max Verstappen still dominant in the first races, but from Miami McLaren becomes the fastest car on track and extends the performance gap until season’s end. Red Bull enters a technical crisis. The team that had dominated incredibly just weeks before seems lost and clings to Max Verstappen to stay near the front, while Ferrari and Mercedes appear to have finally found the key to performance. Especially Ferrari, which nearly wins the constructors’ title, while Mercedes wins 4 races with 1-2 finishes in Spa and Las Vegas. The championship ends, and the 2025 winter is full of anticipation. The last year of this regulation arrives, and all four top teams seem to have found a performance key. Perhaps Red Bull is the most in crisis, considered the probable fourth force, still hanging solely on Max.
The 2025 Formula 1 championship begins, and McLaren dominates ahead of Verstappen’s Red Bull. Everyone is surprised, yet if we look at the end-of-2024 predictions, Max and Red Bull are exactly where expected among the fastest. Behind, sometimes able to win a race, relying on Verstappen’s talent for the driver standings and nothing more. So why the surprise at the dominance? Because two teams, once again, have not made the expected leap forward over winter. Ferrari and Mercedes are once again absent and culpable from the fight, and the vacuum they leave up front becomes McLaren’s advantage. Curiously, both the SF-25 and W16 this year reportedly show rear suspension problems, confirming that mechanics are the limiting factor on these cars. In general, dominance, especially in today’s super competitive Formula 1, never happens because a single team found some mysterious miracle key. It requires the complicity of the competition, which has consistently happened these seasons.
Ferrari has been better than Mercedes, but without a winning phase for too many years. Between the Maranello and Brackley teams in this era, we must say that with equal “zero titles” (quoting Jose Mourinho), Ferrari achieved better results and fought more. The F1-75 was a great car early in 2022, and the SF24 pushed the constructors’ title fight to Abu Dhabi, with weekends of true excellence. Mercedes appeared stunned after the “zero-pod” misstep and somewhat resigned in standings, awaiting 2026 where it places great hopes on the power unit, partly satisfied by the 15 world titles won in the previous era. If we draw conclusions, all four top teams have had more than one negative phase in this era: Ferrari lost its way in ’23 and early ’25; Mercedes was overall inferior to Ferrari; Red Bull had a dominant phase but squandered a huge lead in just over a year; McLaren today dominates but was among the slowest early in these regulations. Ultimately, in an era born to level the field and revive competition, the gap was created not only by those who dominated but especially by those who failed to show up for the challenge.
— see video above —
Leave a Reply