Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris both left the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix believing Mercedes could have been beaten, despite Kimi Antonelli delivering the team’s eighth victory from the opening ten races of the season at Spa-Francorchamps.
Kimi Antonelli ultimately defeated Charles Leclerc by 1.952 seconds after a closely fought final stint, but the result did not tell the full story of the competitive order. Ferrari and McLaren each felt they possessed enough race pace to challenge for victory, only for damage, penalties, strategy and disrupted weekends to prevent either team from fully exploiting its potential.
The outcome has also strengthened expectations that Mercedes may face an even greater challenge at the Hungarian and Dutch Grands Prix, where the balance between cornering performance and straight-line speed should shift towards Ferrari’s strengths.
Lewis Hamilton believes Ferrari had Belgian GP winning pace
Mercedes arrived at Spa as the clear favourite. The circuit’s long full-throttle sections were expected to expose Ferrari’s power and energy-deployment limitations, while Kimi Antonelli reinforced those expectations by taking pole position with an advantage of more than three tenths of a second over Max Verstappen.
Ferrari had selected a relatively high-downforce configuration to protect the SF-26 through the fast corners of the middle sector, accepting that this would make its straight-line deficit more difficult to manage. The reasoning behind that compromise is examined in our analysis of Ferrari’s Spa set-up strategy.
However, Lewis Hamilton felt the car’s underlying race performance was strong enough to fight for victory. His own opportunity was compromised before the Grand Prix had even begun after his late accident in Free Practice 3 forced Ferrari to rebuild several areas of the car ahead of qualifying.
Lewis Hamilton acknowledged responsibility for the crash but believed its consequences extended into the rest of the weekend. He indicated that the repaired Ferrari no longer felt the same and suggested that, with the intended set-up, he could have challenged for second or third on the grid. Further details of the disruption are available in the report on how the FP3 accident changed Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari.
His race then became more complicated when he collided with George Russell on the opening lap at Les Combes. The contact eliminated the Mercedes driver, earned Lewis Hamilton a five-second penalty and damaged the left-front area of the Ferrari’s floor.
Lewis Hamilton estimated that the damage may have cost him approximately 50 points of downforce, although he acknowledged that the figure was not exact. Despite that loss of aerodynamic performance, he remained encouraged by his pace and believed Ferrari had possessed the speed required to win under cleaner circumstances.
He finished fourth, 17.245 seconds behind Kimi Antonelli, but the final gap also included the five-second penalty and the continuing effects of the floor damage. Lewis Hamilton additionally lost time when Ferrari failed to complete a planned front-wing adjustment during his pit stop, leaving him with persistent understeer. The consequences are explained in the analysis of Ferrari’s incomplete front-wing change.
Virtual Safety Car gives Charles Leclerc the lead
Charles Leclerc demonstrated Ferrari’s competitiveness more clearly at the front. Kimi Antonelli had initially appeared capable of controlling the Grand Prix, but a Virtual Safety Car allowed Ferrari to stop Charles Leclerc while losing considerably less time than under normal racing conditions.
The strategic opportunity moved Charles Leclerc ahead of Kimi Antonelli and into the effective race lead. After both drivers passed Lando Norris, who was extending his opening stint on the hard tyres, the Ferrari held an advantage of around three seconds.
Kimi Antonelli gradually reduced that margin and reclaimed first place with ten laps remaining, completing the decisive move on the approach to Les Combes. Charles Leclerc remained close during the closing stages and repeatedly kept the Mercedes under pressure, but Kimi Antonelli managed his tyres and electrical energy well enough to remain ahead.
The narrow winning margin supported Ferrari’s belief that its disadvantage at Spa had been smaller than anticipated. That was particularly significant because the Belgian circuit had been expected to expose the SF-26’s weaknesses under the new energy-management rules. The technical challenge is detailed in our explanation of the FIA’s Spa energy restrictions.
Lando Norris also believes McLaren could have won at Spa
Lando Norris reached a similar conclusion about McLaren’s race performance. The reigning world champion qualified third but was required to start 13th after receiving a ten-place grid penalty for taking additional power-unit components.
McLaren placed Lando Norris on the hard compound for the opening stint, allowing him to run longer than many of the drivers ahead. He temporarily inherited the lead during the pit-stop phase, but the timing of the Virtual Safety Car worked against his strategy as Ferrari and Mercedes gained a reduced-time-loss stop.
McLaren chose to keep Lando Norris on track rather than immediately switching him to the medium tyre. Andrea Stella later acknowledged that the decision had been finely balanced and suggested that, with hindsight, stopping during that period may have produced a better result.
Lando Norris eventually finished seventh, but the position did not reflect how competitive he felt the McLaren had been. He assessed the race pace as probably the team’s strongest of the season and maintained that victory had been possible. His recovery from 13th also included the fastest lap of the Grand Prix, offering further evidence of the car’s potential.
McLaren’s result was nevertheless limited by the grid penalty, an imperfect strategy and the time Lando Norris lost while remaining on the hard tyres. Andrea Stella believed that without the penalty, his driver would have been capable of challenging for at least second place.
Andrea Stella expects Ferrari to be stronger in Hungary
The competitive picture could change further at the Hungaroring and Zandvoort. Unlike Spa, both circuits place greater emphasis on sustained cornering performance and provide fewer opportunities for teams to exploit a decisive straight-line advantage.
Andrea Stella therefore expects Ferrari to become a leading contender at both events. The McLaren team principal indicated that the SF-26 had been exceptionally competitive through the corners at Spa and suggested that Ferrari could return to being the fastest car in Hungary and the Netherlands.
That assessment adds importance to the Hungarian Grand Prix for Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc. Ferrari managed to pressure Mercedes at one of the circuits expected to suit the championship leader most strongly, despite carrying a straight-line disadvantage and enduring a disrupted weekend.
McLaren is also preparing an upgrade package for Budapest as it attempts to turn its improved Belgian GP pace into a stronger result. The team’s only victory of the season so far came through Lando Norris in the Miami Sprint, meaning the potential shown at Spa represented an encouraging step after several difficult rounds.
Ferrari had also been widely regarded as a major threat before the Monaco Grand Prix, only for Kimi Antonelli to win comfortably for Mercedes. Andrea Stella’s prediction is therefore not a guarantee that the competitive order will change in Hungary, but Spa provided meaningful evidence that Mercedes no longer holds an unchallenged advantage.
Kimi Antonelli still converted pole position into victory and managed the decisive phase of the Belgian Grand Prix effectively. Even so, the post-race conclusions from Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris were strikingly similar: both believed their respective cars had enough performance to win, and both left Spa feeling that circumstances had concealed their true potential.
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