The picture painted by qualifying for the Canadian Grand Prix is a harsh one for Ferrari. Fifth place for Lewis Hamilton and eighth for Charles Leclerc is a difficult outcome for a team still searching for stable competitiveness, and once again in Montreal, the SF-26 showed just how difficult it remains to fully understand and unlock.
What stands out is not simply the final result, but how it came about. This time, Lewis Hamilton will line up ahead of Charles Leclerc, with the Monegasque driver visibly struggling throughout the entire weekend. Charles Leclerc himself openly admitted that he never found any real feeling with the car, describing a constant search for compromise between setup and driving style on a circuit that was always expected to be one of Ferrari’s toughest tests of the season.
And that is precisely the core issue. Ferrari continue to experience race weekends where competitiveness seems to depend more on damage limitation than any genuine ability to dictate the pace. The raw time gaps are not enormous because the midfield remains incredibly tight, but the classification tells a far more concerning story. When Ferrari consistently find themselves behind Mercedes and now increasingly behind McLaren as well, the issue is no longer a matter of a single tenth—it is the technical hierarchy that appears to be taking shape.
Mercedes set the pace, McLaren strengthen their advantage
Once again in Canada, the Mercedes W17 confirmed itself as the benchmark. The battle between George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, already ignited during the Sprint race, reinforced the impression of a car that performs confidently in all conditions. The feeling is that the Brackley-based team has found a much broader operating window than its rivals, allowing it to understand both tyre behaviour and changing weather conditions far more effectively.
But if Mercedes now look out of reach, perhaps the more significant trend concerns McLaren. The Woking team are no longer occasional visitors ahead of Ferrari—they are increasingly establishing themselves as the clear second force in the championship. That fundamentally changes Ferrari’s perspective.
The SF-26 simply does not appear to have the kind of technical platform that allows drivers to extract performance naturally and consistently. Every weekend becomes a frantic search for the ideal balance, while rivals seem to be working with cars that are far more intuitive and predictable. Charles Leclerc himself showed visible frustration when describing a car that continues to evade him in terms of confidence and feel.
Ferrari – Vasseur speaks of opportunity, but body language tells another story
The major wildcard for the race will be the weather. Race control has officially declared wet conditions possible, with rain probability sitting above 40%. That could certainly reshuffle the order, particularly given the significantly cooler temperatures compared to last year and the use of harder tyre compounds.
The fact that the Canadian Grand Prix has been brought forward by more than a month this season has forced teams to work in unusually cold conditions, and Frederic Vasseur highlighted exactly that while reflecting on qualifying. The Ferrari team principal openly admitted disappointment with the result, while also insisting that the race could still present new opportunities.
And yet, beyond the words, it is the overall impression that matters. Body language, facial expressions, and even the way certain ideas were communicated all suggested a Ferrari team that does not seem entirely convinced it can genuinely exploit these variables to its own advantage.
Fred Vasseur described the cold and potential rain as “a challenge for everyone,” rather than clearly presenting them as a meaningful Ferrari opportunity. That creates a rather stark impression: Ferrari appear to be approaching this race relying more on external circumstances than on their own structural strength.
The Ferrari of today increasingly looks like a team waiting for the right moment, the favourable incident, the unpredictable twist that could suddenly transform the race. Not a team capable of building victory independently through technical superiority and race execution.
A podium remains theoretically possible, but to achieve it Ferrari would likely need to overtake at least two McLarens—or hope for chaos ahead. And that is perhaps the most concerning part of Ferrari’s current situation: the growing sense that the Scuderia are no longer in control of their own destiny.
The race gets underway at 10 PM CET, and the weather could genuinely turn Montreal into a strategic lottery. But the feeling surrounding Ferrari ahead of lights out is that of a team approaching the race with caution and resignation, almost waiting for others to make mistakes rather than believing it can impose its own pace. More than the raw time deficits, that psychological state may be the clearest reflection of Ferrari’s current reality.
