Ferrari did not fully show the real potential of the SF-26 during the opening round of the 2026 Formula 1 season in Australia. According to Jolyon Palmer, however, the Scuderia may actually hold an important advantage over Mercedes that could become clearer on different types of circuits.
The first race of the 2026 championship ended with victory for George Russell, who crossed the finish line roughly fifteen seconds ahead of the two Ferrari drivers. Despite that gap, the overall performance picture could be more balanced than the final result suggested, as Ferrari may have strengths that were not fully highlighted by the characteristics of the Melbourne circuit.
In fact, the SF-26 could become a reference car on other tracks with different layouts. The upcoming Chinese Grand Prix, scheduled at the Shanghai International Circuit, may already provide a very different scenario compared to what was seen at Albert Park.
The Scuderia from Maranello was also slightly disadvantaged by the Virtual Safety Car triggered by Valtteri Bottas during the race. Because the pit lane was closed at that moment, Ferrari could not carry out the planned pit stop. In that situation, the final gap between Mercedes and Ferrari might have been even smaller if the strategy had played out as intended.
Mercedes’ qualifying advantage and the Melbourne factor
Mercedes managed to make the biggest difference in Australia particularly during qualifying, especially in the section of the circuit between Turns 8 and 11. In that part of the lap the Brackley-based team was able to extract better performance thanks to more efficient energy deployment.
However, this advantage is not expected to be a defining characteristic on every track throughout the season. Albert Park is considered one of the most challenging circuits in Formula 1 from an energy management perspective because of its unusual layout and specific sequence of corners and acceleration zones.
This means that Mercedes may not always be able to rely on that particular strength in the same way at other circuits. Tracks with different characteristics could reduce the effectiveness of that advantage and potentially allow Ferrari to close the gap.
Ferrari’s real potential was not seen in Australia
Former Formula 1 driver and current analyst Jolyon Palmer also analyzed the Australian Grand Prix and suggested that Ferrari could actually hold a performance advantage over Mercedes in certain conditions. According to Palmer, the layout of the Melbourne circuit strongly favored the characteristics of the Mercedes car.
“The main reason why Ferrari should still be smiling, despite everything, is the nature of the circuit. Albert Park has been a real headache for this generation of cars. Mercedes’ margin over the field on Saturday was huge, but it was also largely due to energy deployment on an unusual circuit,” he pointed out.
“Looking at the data, the differences in energy usage between Ferrari and Mercedes represented the fundamental difference in the lap times.”
On the other hand, the Italian team can rely on a car that appears very competitive in certain conditions. “Ferrari were quicker in the slow corners. In 2026 this is a good representation of the car’s performance, because with active aerodynamics there are no longer downforce considerations that can confuse the picture.”
“All of this suggests that they could close the gap, or even be the ones setting the pace on other circuits. Ferrari and Mercedes seem to have strengths and weaknesses at opposite ends of the spectrum, and Albert Park is something of an outlier, a circuit that largely favored the Mercedes direction,” he added.
Ferrari’s strong starts and the Hamilton–Leclerc battle
Beyond the cornering performance highlighted by several drivers, including Lando Norris, Ferrari may also rely on another potential advantage: its strong race starts.
At the Melbourne race start it was clear that both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc were able to immediately move into the leading group. The run down to Turn 1 at Albert Park is not among the longest on the calendar, which means that at other circuits with longer starting straights the benefit could become even more significant.
There were also several positive signs within the Ferrari garage regarding the internal dynamic between the two drivers. One of the most notable aspects during the Australian Grand Prix weekend was Lewis Hamilton’s attitude, which appeared very different compared to the previous season.
The British driver seemed noticeably more positive and showed greater competitive determination throughout the weekend. During the final stint of the race he managed to recover several seconds on teammate Charles Leclerc, confirming that he already feels comfortable with the SF-26.
Leclerc, on the other hand, was not particularly satisfied at the end of the race. However, the reason was not the car itself. The Monegasque driver had explained before the race that he particularly enjoys the Melbourne circuit and expected to perform well there.
The Ferrari number 16 also experimented with a slightly more aggressive setup during the race, but that configuration did not fully deliver the expected results. Even so, the overall performance of the SF-26 suggests that Ferrari could become a much stronger contender as the championship moves to circuits with characteristics better suited to the strengths of the Maranello car.
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