F1 surprise in Montreal as 2026 cars outperform team simulations by one second. Montreal raises questions as 2026 F1 cars beat predicted pace by a full second.

A particularly significant data point emerged from the first qualifying session of the Montreal weekend. The 2026 Formula 1 cars, at least in Canada, proved to be noticeably faster than teams had expected, posting lap times around one second quicker than the simulations previously submitted to Pirelli.

To help Pirelli define tyre compounds, camber settings, and minimum pressure values, teams provide their own simulation data for selected circuits such as Suzuka or Barcelona, offering an additional benchmark for the tyre supplier. While the Italian manufacturer also carries out its own dedicated simulations, it is fair to ask who knows a car better than the team that designed it. That is precisely why the data sent by the teams is considered so important.

This is not the first time projected values have differed from what was eventually seen on track, because predicting race weekend conditions with absolute precision remains extremely difficult. In the past, Pirelli has already had to make mid-weekend adjustments, such as tweaking minimum tyre pressures, but those were generally marginal corrections.

Lap times one second quicker than expected

This time, however, the gap was far more significant. The times recorded on Friday were approximately one second quicker than what the teams had forecast.

“What is interesting is that the cars on track were actually quite fast. We received the simulations from the teams, and they expected to be around two seconds slower than last year,” explained Simone Berra, Pirelli’s F1 chief engineer, after Friday qualifying.

“In the end, they were almost quicker than last year. In any case, in FP1 they were in line with last year’s figures, around two tenths slower. But we had estimated a 1:13.8, and they lapped in 1:12.9. So they were one second faster than expected. It is something we need to monitor.”

“We know that all the upgrades teams are bringing are pushing car development in a very significant direction in terms of downforce and performance. We need to evaluate the impact of these loads on the tyres. That is something we are analysing right now, to understand whether these performance gains and the evolution of the cars are somehow affecting how the tyre deforms and its overall integrity.”

Of course, it is worth remembering that last year’s Canadian Grand Prix did not feature the Sprint format, which meant teams approached FP1 differently, with less emphasis on outright performance and more focus on setup work. Even so, the data remains highly interesting, especially because the tyre compounds used in Montreal twelve months ago were one step softer. The ambient conditions were also very similar.

A matter of grip and upgrades

So what changed, and why did performance exceed expectations? On a circuit that still retains a street-track character, grip levels are never especially high. In fact, Pirelli observed significant track evolution during free practice, which then progressively stabilised during Sprint qualifying.

For the Italian tyre supplier, this may be one of the two key reasons behind the discrepancy between simulations and reality. Originally, Formula 2 was not scheduled to race in Canada. That round was added later to make up for the cancelled Bahrain event, while the F1 Academy calendar was only finalised relatively late, at the start of the year.

There is also another major factor: upgrades. The developments introduced at this stage of the season are the first upgrade packages created not during the winter, but based on lessons learned from the opening Grands Prix. That means the rate of performance growth is currently steep and moving upward quickly.

This also means teams may need to adjust their race strategies to keep graining under control, something already expected given the dirty track surface and first seen on the front tyres during FP1.

“In general, at previous races, it has not always happened that we were faster on track compared to what teams had simulated. So we need to understand whether this is a trend we will also see at upcoming races, or whether it is simply a specific Montreal case, where we know the asphalt grip level has a very, very large influence on the overall lap time,” Simone Berra added.

“Probably the teams themselves were not expecting a situation like this. I believe having both F1 Academy and Formula 2 as support categories contributed significantly to improving track evolution. Perhaps the teams did not expect to find the circuit in these conditions either.”

An isolated case or the start of a trend?

If the data is examined more closely, the first, more technical sector — where a much bigger difference might have been expected — actually showed the 2026 cars to be only around one second slower, and that came after just a single practice session.

It is also worth noting that last year Montreal already featured DRS usage in at least three zones. While the FIA has now reduced usable energy deployment to just 6 MJ, electric power will still offer a clear advantage during acceleration out of slower sections.

This is precisely why Pirelli wants to understand whether what happened in Montreal is merely an isolated episode or the beginning of a broader trend, particularly to determine the source of the increased loads — whether they are predominantly lateral or vertical — because that would create different consequences depending on the circuit characteristics.

At the moment, there are no particular alarm bells, and this appears more likely to be a one-off situation, especially since Miami did not produce major deviations from expectations. However, if this trend continues, it is clear that for especially demanding Grands Prix such as Silverstone or Qatar, and certainly when looking ahead to 2027, some important evaluations may need to be made.

That is why, as always, Pirelli remains closely attentive to the situation.