F1 | Race Strategies: less straightforward choices than usual | 2023 Belgian GP. Less straightforward choices than usual.

Teams do not have any long-run data, so the dry 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix after two days of rain will be a bit of a lottery in tire choices: Pirelli indicates that the fastest strategy involves two stops, starting with the red tires and then two stints on the mediums. The more conservative ones, instead, will begin with the mediums, hoping to complete the distance with only one stop towards the hards.

The variable weather and the wide availability of slick tires have made the range of possible race strategies much broader than usual. The scenario most feared by teams is a change in conditions during the race, an option that, according to weather forecasts, is fifty percent likely. But even in the case of a dry and stable track, choices are less straightforward than usual.

Pirelli simulations indicate that the fastest strategy is a two-stop choice, with a set of softs at the start and then a set of mediums for the second and third stints. This strategy could suit Max Verstappen’s needs well, as he starts from sixth position on the grid and will need to make up ground. With low track temperatures (unlikely to exceed thirty degrees even in dry conditions), the advantage of grip in the early laps will be a favorable factor.

The lack of usual data from long-run simulations further adds to the uncertainty, given that the sprint weekend itself has been reduced to only FP1 as free practice, and even more so at the 7.004-kilometre Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps in Stavelot, where the first free practice session took place on a wet track.

Those looking to take fewer risks will rely on the medium tire at the start, then assess the degradation lap after lap to decide on the tire choice for the second stint. If the wear is not excessive, the hypothetical scenario is to switch to the hard tires after the first 15/20 laps, aiming directly for the checkered flag.

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This strategy could interest the two McLarens, which have opted for a higher aerodynamic load (hoping for a wet race) and have a better chance of containing tire degradation with a single pit stop.

Of course, teams have also covered themselves for a wet race. All drivers have one new set of wet tires and one new set of intermediates, plus another five used sets between the two tire compounds for the Belgian Grand Prix.