Qatar GP 2024, race strategy – After securing pole position at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, George Russell once again starts at the front of the grid. In reality, the fastest time was set by Max Verstappen, but a penalty promoted Mercedes’ W15 car number 63, confirming the team’s strong form seen in the United States. In the second row, the two McLaren drivers are positioned, sensing that the Constructors’ Championship is becoming more within reach, partly due to Ferrari not being at their best but still hoping to recover with race pace shown during the Sprint Race.
The outcome of the race is uncertain, considering both the qualifying results and, more importantly, the Sprint Race, which ended with a McLaren one-two finish (Piastri ahead of Norris, editor’s note). However, they were unable to establish a significant gap over the competition, which stayed close throughout the race. Given this, and the challenging tire management on a track that places a lot of stress on the compounds, the race is expected to be unpredictable in its final outcome.
Before diving into the details of strategic predictions, let’s take a look at the tire choices made by Pirelli for the 23rd round of the 2024 World Championship. Unlike Las Vegas, where the softer compounds were introduced, Pirelli has brought the hardest tires in their range: C1 hard, C2 medium, and C3 soft. Let’s immediately look at the tire sets available to the drivers.
Qatar GP 2024 – Strategy: Single Stop Expected to Be Beneficial
It should be noted that predicting team strategies this year has been particularly difficult. Tires have often been a puzzle, leading to tactics that diverged from what was expected on paper.
For the Losail Grand Prix, it is important to consider the resurfacing of the curbs, which are lower than last year when many tire issues arose due to the sharp edges of the curbs placed at the outside of the corners, leading to tires getting cut. This prompted a multi-stop strategy last year.
This year, the issue has been resolved, and Pirelli’s engineers expect that the best tactic will be a single stop, starting with the medium tire, which should last between 19 and 25 laps, followed by a switch to the hard tire to finish the race.
Aside from the curbs, Pirelli’s chief engineer Simone Berra highlighted that the overall grip level this year is higher than last year, preventing lateral sliding and premature tire wear. The expected graining was less than anticipated. This, combined with lower degradation, suggests that a single-stop strategy will be the most advantageous.
Of course, there is little data on the hard tire, a compound not used during the Sprint Race and only seen briefly during Friday’s sole practice session. The performance of this compound will be the deciding factor: if it performs well, a single stop will be viable; otherwise, alternative strategies such as a two-stop plan with two hard tire stints after an initial medium stint may be used.
There is little expectation of using the soft C3 tire, a compound that would lead to excessive wear and rapid performance degradation. While several drivers have multiple sets of this compound (Nico Hulkenberg, Franco Colapinto, and Esteban Ocon each have three available), it’s unlikely that anyone will use it, especially since overtaking at Losail is difficult, and having to recover positions would be very disadvantageous.
The race will be held under the weather conditions observed in the preceding days, with temperatures not too high but winds that could cause issues, with gusts expected at up to 40 kilometers per hour. The drivers will need to manage these conditions, especially through medium- to high-speed corners.
Additionally, the wind tends to bring desert sand onto the track, which doesn’t help maintain ideal asphalt conditions. This presents another small challenge, an additional variable to consider in the difficult equation that is the 2024 Qatar Grand Prix.
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