F1 paddock believes Mercedes hold the edge over Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari after Bahrain F1 test. The F1 paddock suggests Mercedes may have the upper hand over Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari.

Lewis Hamilton projected confidence during his F1 press conference on the final day of testing, but the closing session may have given him reason for concern. The seven-time world champion expressed that he was heading into the season with “the most positive feeling I’ve had in a long time.” However, Ferrari’s SF-25 didn’t appear particularly fast or stable as testing wrapped up. Hamilton ended Friday as the sixth-fastest driver overall, but onboard footage painted a troubling picture—he was visibly struggling with the car, reminiscent of his battles with an uncooperative Mercedes last season.

Earlier in testing, Karun Chandhok had suggested that Hamilton was able to “manipulate” the Ferrari in a way that hinted at strong adaptability. However, sheer driving skill won’t be enough if the car lacks outright pace. A key concern is whether the SF-25 struggles in higher temperatures, potentially limiting its competitiveness in key races.

Hamilton had planned to complete a full race simulation under the Bahrain lights but was forced back to the garage due to an unspecified technical issue. Ferrari’s decision to keep the details under wraps has only fueled speculation about potential reliability concerns. Meanwhile, experts in the paddock have been analyzing data and observations to gauge where each team stands—and the early projections aren’t encouraging for Hamilton or Ferrari’s Tifosi.

Does Mercedes Have the Edge Over Ferrari?

Testing pecking order predictions should be taken with caution. Teams still have two weeks before the Australian Grand Prix to fine-tune setups and introduce updates. Additionally, a slow start doesn’t necessarily dictate the season’s outcome—last year, McLaren was 99 points behind Red Bull after five races yet managed to claim the title.

That said, the early consensus places McLaren at the top, with Red Bull following closely behind and Mercedes in third. According to Planet F1’s Thomas Maher, Ferrari finds itself in fourth, just ahead of Alpine and Williams. If these assessments hold true, Hamilton may find himself trailing his former team—an outcome that would be difficult to digest.

Is Ferrari’s True Pace Worse Than Expected?

Hamilton’s switch from McLaren to Mercedes in 2013 turned out to be a masterstroke, as he left just before his old team’s decline and joined a squad on the brink of an era-defining dominance. This time, the move to Ferrari carries more risk. While George Russell has played down Mercedes’ title hopes, it’s unlikely that Hamilton has completely squandered his championship chances by leaving.

Still, testing performance matters. Toto Wolff praised the British driver’s speed earlier in the week, but by Friday, Ferrari’s struggles raised fresh doubts. Alex Brundle described the Ferrari’s handling as “horrid” in the final four hours of testing, particularly with Lewis Hamilton at the wheel. If nothing else, the British driver may have learned exactly which setup directions to avoid in his quest to return to the top.