Who will be leading the field in Melbourne? Johnny Herbert offers his prediction for the Formula 1 grid and comments on the winter expectations surrounding Ferrari. Establishing a clear pecking order after the Barcelona tests is far from easy, but a few early indications have already emerged. If Mercedes appear to start with a slight advantage, the Maranello-based team has nevertheless maintained a very solid performance level. The key question remains the same as in previous years: will this be yet another winter promise from the Prancing Horse, or can Ferrari finally turn potential into consistent results?
“I think it’s too early to say where anyone really is. Some teams are going through problems that they will need to resolve. I’m sure everyone had difficulties during the test days they completed,” Johnny Herbert told RacingNews365, introducing his thoughts on the 2026 Formula 1 grid. It is still a prediction that is extremely difficult to calculate, but one that already offers a few clues that should not be ignored.
“We won’t know who has fixed their issues until the first race. There will always be a small element of the unknown. The rumours say that Mercedes is once again the favourite, because they are simply circulating, circulating, circulating, circulating. But the same applies to Red Bull, who have actually done very, very well too. So yes, we don’t know,” Herbert added.
A Ferrari that is always competitive in winter
And what about Ferrari? According to Johnny Herbert, winter promises are not always kept in Maranello: “It will also depend on how Red Bull manages to adapt with that power unit and on how Ferrari has potentially, as it always seems to do, put itself in a position to win again, something that never quite fully happens.”
“Let’s remember last season, or rather I would say especially the last two years. Ferrari was the second fastest in testing, but then, during the season, nothing ever really materialised. So tests are always difficult to interpret, but my instinct tells me that Mercedes probably still looks strong,” Johnny Herbert concluded.
Johnny Herbert’s analysis of the 2026 hierarchy shows that the Barcelona shakedown is only the first chapter in a long technical story. By highlighting Ferrari’s tendency to show “empty” winter speed, he points to the recurring challenge the Scuderia faces in maintaining development throughout a grueling season. While the high mileage from Mercedes and the resilience of Red Bull suggest they remain the teams to beat, the true competitive order will remain a mystery until the lights go out in Australia. For the Tifosi, Herbert’s comments underscore the need for Ferrari to prove their potential on the scoreboard rather than just the timesheets. As the sport moves toward the definitive tests in Bahrain, the question remains: has Maranello finally built a car that can break the cycle of winter hype and deliver a world championship?
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