F1 Japanese GP race pace analysis: Ferrari SF-26 cars lose grip on softer tires. Suzuka FP2: Ferrari’s pace issues signal a tough weekend ahead.

The second practice session for the Japanese Grand Prix provided a fairly accurate snapshot of the pecking order on track. Based on what we’ve seen at previous events, we can establish a realistic hierarchy. Of course, this doesn’t account for unexpected incidents that may occur over the weekend, which McLaren, unfortunately for them, seems to anticipate fairly well.

To properly interpret the lap times we’ll analyze, it’s important to note that Mercedes and McLaren performed well across all tire compounds, particularly the C2 and C3. Ferrari, on the other hand, seems to prefer the harder C1 tires. Both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, somewhat contrary to expectations, lose grip and start sliding significantly when moving to the softer compounds. On the Soft tires, they really struggle and slide heavily, which negatively affects performance. This is especially evident in qualifying simulations, where today Piastri’s McLaren outperformed Ferrari, with Leclerc’s car trailing by 0.7 seconds.

Antonelli unstoppable

Regarding race pace, Oscar Piastri, Mercedes, and Ferrari used the Medium C2 tires. The sliding decreased somewhat, but the SF-26 is not performing like it did in the first two races. The W17 is almost untouchable in race pace, and Antonelli made a significant difference even compared to his teammate. An average lap of 1’34.780 is extraordinary for both McLaren and Ferrari.

Ferrari-McLaren battle for the podium

Charles Leclerc holds his ground, but no matter how hard he pushes, his pace is around 1’35.4. It’s better than Oscar Piastri, but still far behind the W17. If the McLarens can outperform the SF-26 in qualifying, there may be too many cars ahead for Ferrari to overtake even with a strong start.

At least, even if Mercedes looks exceptionally strong, we can expect an exciting duel between Ferrari and McLaren for the podium. Leclerc is faster than the papaya cars (Norris remains an unknown, absent from race pace simulations due to technical issues), but Hamilton is struggling with these tires. He will need to find a better balance by tomorrow, or his weekend could become complicated. Tire management will likely play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Red Bull struggles

Red Bull, on the other hand, performed poorly. We included them in the table because they are, of course, a top team, but for now, they are far from competing even for a top-five finish. Verstappen and Hadjar used Hard tires, yet their lap times are well off the pace, with Isack perhaps showing slightly more consistency than Max. The French driver was undoubtedly the most consistent overall, even more so than Antonelli.

Kimi Antonelli has set a daunting benchmark for the field to chase during Sunday’s Grand Prix. Based on the content of the FP2 long-run data, Ferrari’s hopes of a podium rest on solving their overheating issues on the softer compounds before the lights go out at Suzuka.