Ferrari got everything wrong in qualifying for the ninth round of the 2024 Formula 1 season, where the Prancing Horse struggled enormously. The track was very difficult to manage in terms of tire compounds. The track surface was around 30°C, so not very warm, while the air temperature was about 20°C. Almost all drivers struggled to get the tires to activate, to varying degrees. It’s no coincidence that both Mercedes and Aston Martin had such good results yesterday, without taking away the technical merits that denote a step forward, which we will discuss later.
In general, we know that these two cars tend to put a lot of energy into the tires, often causing the rears to overheat. With lower temperatures, the W15 and AMR24 “lit up.” The issues behind tire management are not an exact science and are extremely complicated to study and simulate. Moreover, there are no clear relationships between setup changes and tire activation, especially when it comes to a few degrees of difference. The tire heats up and cools down continuously during the lap, undergoing a thermal cycle.
The difference between proper activation and not depends on the percentage of time during the lap in which the four tires are kept as close as possible to the ideal temperature. It’s no coincidence that team principal Frederic Vasseur spoke specifically about pressures after qualifying. The relationship between temperature and pressure is direct and very close. Failing to stabilize the degrees Celsius inside the tires creates a very fluctuating trend that limits the correct target pressure during the lap and skews the value on the contact patch that the tire exerts on the asphalt.
Conversely, if the working range is correct and the target pressures are achieved, a larger contact area of the tire on the ground can be exploited. Unfortunately, the historic Ferrari team has made many mistakes in this area. Without the proper operating window, the amount of lost lap time increases exponentially. We can say that 80% of the blame is due to poor compound management, which could have been foreseen before qualifying. The SF-24 puts less energy into the tire, which is why it struggles more to find the correct temperature.
Now that we have a clearer understanding of the tire issue, we can talk about the ‘pure’ performance of the cars, net of the tire variable. Ferrari had a balanced base setup that didn’t always work due to the tire factor. That said, 20% of the result is also due to imperfect handling. The car was more oversteering, as we saw yesterday. A certain lack of downforce can be noticed from the on-boards, especially in the entry phases, as a harmful moment was triggered as soon as the load was transferred to the outside.
We will never know exactly if this behavior would have disappeared with better tire management. One could also point to less rear downforce, which is true because Ferrari wanted to optimize top speeds. The SF-24 single-seater was not the only one to have a lack of rear grip. Mercedes also had a fairly light rear end, but overall optimal tire usage allowed George Russell a very good lap. This is why the tire factor is the most important and will remain so for the next races.
Mercedes managed to contain the oversteer well, providing the drivers with a car with good balance between the two axles. Excellent entry for the W15, which gained a lot in this phase. The only other car at this level was Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, while Ferrari lost a lot in this phase but managed to recover in traction in some cases. George Russell built the pole position in two specific points of the 4.361-kilometre Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve in Montreal: the second chicane, where you get very close to the walls, and the ‘S’ before the hairpin in the third sector.
A point on the circuit where he found the decisive gap even on the Red Bull driven by the world champion. On entry, the gray and black car made a difference and gained an advantage that it carried to the finish line. We also analyze the telemetry data related to the best micro sectors. RB20 and W15 were very strong in the very first corners, namely the slowest chicane on the track, where Ferrari struggled since the final free practice session in Canada, never managing to hold a favorable line through the turn.
Aston Martin essentially gained in the fast zones where the combination of engine and aerodynamic efficiency counts. The telemetry data confirms what was said before: excellent entry of the W14 in several braking points, notably in turns 3, 6, 8, and 13. Red Bull also found enough grip because they managed to make the compound work properly. Even the Milton Keynes team suffered some problems in this regard, but at the crucial moment, they managed to translate all the work done on the operating window into a good result.
Let’s also take a look at the ideal performances in the qualifying session at the Montreal track: George Russell could actually have improved his lap time further, losing potential that he couldn’t extract in Q3. A close pole position battle that could have been more decisive. Max Verstappen could have been around two and a half tenths behind, similar to Lewis Hamilton, who could have completed an all-Mercedes front row. Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris confirm McLaren as the third force in qualifying. The Woking team also seems capable of making the tires work better in warmer temperatures.
