F1 Canadian GP strategy analysis: wet weather could be Ferrari’s biggest threat. Why rain at the Canadian GP could derail Ferrari’s hopes in Montreal.

Canadian GP – Possible strategies: rain is the worst-case scenario for Ferrari

Formula 1 has returned to Canada for the fifth round of the 2026 world championship. The opening phase of the season has been somewhat fragmented for several reasons, but Montreal marks the beginning of a far more intense stretch, returning to the rhythm fans have become familiar with in recent years. The Canadian Grand Prix is the first of seven race weekends scheduled over the next 10 weeks, leading all the way to August, when the traditional summer break will finally allow teams and drivers a brief moment to recharge.

Mercedes arrived in Canada with a major upgrade package affecting almost every area of the car, including the front wing, engine cover, upper sidepod bodywork, floor and clutch, while McLaren has completed the development programme it first introduced in Miami. That work appears to have helped the Stuttgart-based team establish itself as the benchmark in Montreal, with the Woking squad moving even closer to the front.

Unfortunately for Ferrari, if the competitive picture seen in the Sprint carries over into Sunday’s race, the Scuderia may find itself battling Red Bull for third-best rather than challenging the top two teams. In the most optimistic scenario, Ferrari could at least try to split the McLarens.

All of that depends on one major factor: the weather.

Pirelli’s strategic recommendations for Circuit Gilles Villeneuve (70 laps)

Before explaining why rain could create even more difficulties for Ferrari, it is worth looking at the strategic guidance provided by Pirelli for the main race.

Pirelli’s motorsport director Dario Marrafuschi explained: “A one-stop strategy is clearly the preferred option, with the Medium C4 to Hard C3 combination theoretically the fastest on paper, with the pit stop window between laps 21 and 27. We believe this will be the most common strategy if the race remains fully dry. The Hard-to-Medium option is slower, but depending on starting position, it could still be attractive, with the stop window between laps 38 and 44. Some drivers may choose to start on the Soft C5 to gain an advantage in the opening stages before switching to Hard for the final stint, with a stop between laps 17 and 23.”

Marrafuschi also addressed the weather uncertainty: “There is still a strong possibility of rain tomorrow.” He also highlighted Pirelli’s revised procedures for wet-weather tyres.

“Starting from Miami, Pirelli has extended the use of tyre blankets to the Full Wet compounds, with the goal of keeping them at 40°C for two hours.” This adjustment brings them closer to the existing procedures for intermediate tyres, which are maintained at 70°C for two hours, just like slick tyres.

These measures should make life easier for drivers trying to bring the tyres into the correct operating window on a circuit where lateral forces are relatively low. This becomes even more relevant given the unusually cool temperatures in Montreal this year. Moving the event three weeks earlier than usual has clearly played a role, as the Canadian Grand Prix has traditionally taken place later in June.

According to the latest forecasts, track conditions should improve by race time. Earlier projections suggested rain during the Grand Prix itself, but much like what happened in Miami, the weather system now appears to be shifting earlier in the day, potentially affecting the Formula 2 race more significantly.

Regardless of whether conditions remain dry or turn wet, temperatures will almost certainly be lower than they were on Saturday. That makes the Medium C4 and Hard C3 compounds the logical race tyres, especially to reduce the risk of graining.

In that respect, starting on the Hard tyre could offer some drivers a useful advantage, allowing them to better control tyre degradation in the opening stint before maximising the stronger performance of the Medium compound later in the race, once the circuit has rubbered in further.

Why cooler conditions could hurt Ferrari even more

Rain and lower temperatures may create an even bigger headache for Ferrari. In recent days, Charles Leclerc, just as Ferrari tyre performance chief Carlos Galbally had warned in this analysis, struggled with a temperature imbalance between the front and rear axles.

The issue appears to involve not just tyre management, but especially brake temperature control.

During team radio between Q2 and Q3, Charles Leclerc made his frustration clear: “Either I finish P8 or I end up in the wall in Q3.” The difficulty in getting sufficient temperature into the rear brakes created an imbalance that also affected his driving style. The Monegasque was effectively forced to drive with extreme caution and, in hindsight, his prediction proved remarkably accurate. He said that unless he could take more risks, he would qualify eighth — and that is exactly what happened.

Ferrari was unable to solve the issue across the weekend, and if temperatures remain low, Charles Leclerc could be facing another extremely difficult race, potentially even losing out in the battle with Red Bull.

That said, Red Bull does not appear entirely comfortable in Montreal either.

With Lewis Hamilton starting fifth, followed by Max Verstappen, Isack Hadjar and Charles Leclerc, the battle in the midfield of the top group could be one of the most intense stories of the race. None of those four drivers are likely to give an inch.

There is also the tantalising possibility of a proper Lewis Hamilton versus Max Verstappen fight. Their unforgettable 2021 title battles remain among the most dramatic modern Formula 1 duels, and Montreal could offer at least a brief return to that kind of wheel-to-wheel tension.

Formation lap starts at 22:00 CET.