F1 Canadian GP strategy analysis: how tire choices and graining could shake up the Montreal race

The Canadian GP promises to be an unpredictable event. It is usually full of uncertainties due to changing weather conditions throughout the weekend. This year, however, despite the forecasts remaining fairly stable so far and expected to stay that way tomorrow, the very soft tire nomination on a low-grip and generally dirty track increases the risk of graining.

A phenomenon that affected all the top teams during Friday’s race pace simulations. The most affected was Ferrari, which could only run with Lewis Hamilton due to Charles Leclerc’s absence following his FP1 crash. Before sharing our thoughts, let’s review the advice Pirelli gave to the teams after qualifying.

Pirelli’s advice – Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – 70 laps
The main issue is definitely graining and the use of C4 and C5 compounds in race mode. Mario Isola, Pirelli motorsport director, was very clear and concise: “Extending the 2025 compound range is creating a variety of approaches among teams and drivers in tire usage throughout the weekend, which will reflect on the race. From a strategy perspective, we think a two-stop remains the most plausible option, favoring Medium and Hard tires. The one-stop strategy is theoretically valid but unlikely to pay off, considering overtaking is possible here and the time lost in the pit lane for tire changes is quite limited (around 18 seconds),” according to the statement from the Pirelli team.

Graining and short stops could open the door to a three-stop scenario
It’s no secret that the C6 is not the most suitable tire for the race. The new Pirelli compound, on this type of circuit—as seen already at Imola—does not make a difference. In qualifying it is sometimes even ignored and will likely be even more so during the race.

The GP opens up to various strategies, largely depending on the remaining tire sets available to the drivers. We agree with Pirelli that the fastest strategy, at least on paper, will be a two-stop plan like Medium-Medium-Hard or Hard-Hard-Medium. It must be noted that the C5, the yellow compound this year, is still very soft and, as seen already on Friday (race pace data), suffers a lot from graining.

If drivers can manage stints of about 20 laps on the C5, then the M-M-H strategy becomes possible; otherwise, if degradation is high and an early pit stop is necessary, they will switch to M-H-H or, if they don’t have two sets of C4, change plans towards a three-stop strategy likely involving the Soft tire.

Using the Soft C6, in our opinion, will be more a matter of necessity (due to shortages of other compounds) rather than performance. We believe that those starting on Soft have either already committed to a three-stop or want to try to gain an advantage with an early undercut, hoping to pick up positions while running on Hard tires in clear air. Those starting on Soft will likely go S-H-H or three stops.

If forced to use Soft, we recommend using it in the final stint. The more rubbered-in track will help manage graining better. Given qualifying performance, however, we do not believe the C6 can offer a consistent performance advantage over the C5. Again, its use will be more out of necessity.

For those with a shortage of Medium and Hard tires—only one set of each available—a two-stop strategy including all three compounds is possible. Even in that case, the best approach would be to use Soft in the last phase of the race.

If graining is high, we could see two scenarios where both undercuts and overcuts could be very effective. Pitting early allows gaining track position over drivers on worn tires initially, but those pitting late might gain an advantage over those who changed tires too early.

Summary
The two-stop strategy is on paper the best option, but since the pit stop time is fairly short (18 seconds), three stops could be a very interesting alternative, especially if graining is severe. In Canada, potential safety cars must also be considered, as a Safety Car deployment is always likely. The teams will need to be adept at capitalizing on every opportunity, especially using a free pit stop to gain an advantage.