Towards Baku: McLaren, Ferrari and Max Verstappen set for a new battle
After the overwhelming dominance shown by Max Verstappen and Red Bull in Italy, Formula 1 now heads to another atypical track: the Baku City Circuit. While Monza had its unique characteristics, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix presents a completely different challenge. For Ferrari and McLaren, as well as for Max Verstappen, this race offers a fresh opportunity to test their strengths on one of the trickiest circuits on the calendar. Aerodynamic efficiency will once again be an important factor, but even more crucial will be finding the correct compromise in suspension setup.
McLaren still vulnerable
Baku can be described as a mix between Monza and Monte Carlo. The track links extremely long straights with a sequence of tight 90-degree corners typical of a street circuit. Around 73% of the lap is spent at full throttle, an indicator of just how much time is dedicated to high-speed sections, particularly the final straight, which is over two kilometers long. This pushes teams toward low-downforce aerodynamic configurations, an area in which Red Bull has traditionally excelled. Laurent Mekies had already underlined at Monza that, “Our car performs better on medium to low downforce circuits compared to those requiring higher levels of aerodynamic load.”
For McLaren, however, Andrea Stella admitted that “compared to our competitors, our car loses a little efficiency when running this kind of setup.” That weakness could leave the papaya team once again within reach of their rivals. Still, Baku will not necessarily be a direct replay of Monza. The average lap speed here is just 213 km/h, significantly lower than the 264 km/h at Monza. The abundance of slow corners reduces overall lap speed and limits lateral acceleration, with peaks of 3.6 g compared to 4.7 g at Monza. These figures confirm the lack of fast corners, where Red Bull usually shines and where Stella has often noted McLaren’s disadvantages. In this respect, Ferrari may find Baku more favorable than Monza, where it struggled to find balance, stability and drivability in high-speed bends.
A different kind of efficiency
The challenge at Baku becomes even more complex once setup strategy is taken into account. Unlike other tracks, the vast majority of corners in Azerbaijan are slow, rarely taken above 150 km/h. As a result, cars cannot generate the high aerodynamic loads that would normally help through faster bends. McLaren’s strong aerodynamic grip, which gave it a lifeline at Monza, may not be enough here to offset the time lost on the long straights.
At Baku, the real battle is not purely about aerodynamic efficiency, but about aero-mechanical efficiency — finding the right balance between mechanical grip and aerodynamic load. Softer suspension settings improve grip in the slow corners, but they also create problems on the long straights. At speeds exceeding 300 km/h, the aerodynamic load compresses the car against the track surface, accelerating wear on the wooden plank under the floor. For this reason, Pirelli has prescribed some of the highest tire pressures of the season — 27 psi at the front and 26 psi at the rear — to support the extreme loads experienced down the straights.
To avoid plank wear beyond the legal one-millimeter limit, teams are forced to stiffen suspension setups. This limits setup flexibility and compromises mechanical grip in the twisty sections. Ferrari’s deputy team principal Jérôme d’Ambrosio highlighted back in May that “when there are long straights, you always face limitations.” Indeed, the Ferrari SF-25 has often struggled to control ride heights effectively, which could once again become a limitation on the streets of Baku.
An open battle
Each of the top teams arrives in Baku carrying its own vulnerabilities. McLaren may once again be exposed, creating both risks and opportunities for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, especially if another car manages to insert itself between them and Max Verstappen in the championship fight. For Red Bull, the question remains whether the dominant Monza performance was a one-off or the result of genuine progress thanks to their new floor design and recent setup tweaks. Ferrari, meanwhile, can count on Charles Leclerc, who has taken four consecutive pole positions in Baku and has often managed to place even weaker cars, such as the Ferrari SF-21, at the front of the grid.
Mercedes is the major unknown factor. The Silver Arrows lack a truly efficient low-downforce rear wing compared to their rivals, which could leave them vulnerable on the straights as seen at Monza. However, Baku is also filled with heavy braking zones and traction-demanding corners taken with the steering wheel straight — conditions where the Mercedes W16 has been particularly strong. Their win in Montreal, on a track with similar stop-and-go characteristics, is proof of this potential. Furthermore, the extremely long main straight in Azerbaijan can cause tire temperatures to drop by as much as 40°C, a factor that may actually help Mercedes, whose car generally prefers lower tire operating temperatures.
The tire degradation factor
Success in Baku will not only depend on pure speed, but also on finding the right compromise between qualifying and race performance. Overtaking is far from easy due to the limited effectiveness of DRS in low-downforce configurations and because tire degradation has historically been very low at this circuit. This season, however, Pirelli has adopted a more aggressive approach, bringing softer compounds compared to 2024. For the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, teams will use the C4, C5, and C6 compounds, with the softest C6 making its return after appearing earlier this year in Imola, Monaco, and Montreal.
Understanding tire performance will therefore be crucial, and Friday practice sessions will play a fundamental role in helping both teams and drivers extract the maximum. The drivers in particular will need confidence to brush so close to the walls, a task that demands absolute precision. The proximity of the barriers also increases the likelihood of safety cars and red flags in both qualifying and the race, making execution and strategy just as important as raw pace.
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