The Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang is expected to become a strategic race dominated by tyre degradation, with Pirelli identifying a two-stop strategy as the quickest option for most of the Formula 1 field. However, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc could face a different calculation after both used a set of Hard tyres during practice, potentially opening the door to a more aggressive three-stop race.
Sepang’s abrasive asphalt places considerable stress on the tyres, while Pirelli has brought the three middle compounds from its 2026 range to Malaysia: the C2 Hard, C3 Medium and C4 Soft. Taken together, those factors point towards two pit stops for much of the 22-car grid. The specific characteristics behind Ferrari’s tyre outlook were already examined in the analysis of why Pirelli’s Sepang compounds may suit the SF-26.
Pirelli expects two stops for the Bahrain GP at Sepang
The circuit improved between Friday practice and qualifying. That was visible in the 1:35.1 lap with which Max Verstappen secured pole position in Q3, although the track still remained considerably slower than Pirelli had predicted.
Pirelli’s pre-event single-lap simulation produced an expected time of 1:33.2, leaving a difference of almost exactly two seconds compared with the actual pole time. One reason is that Sepang’s surface is providing approximately 5% less grip than anticipated.
Despite that difference, Pirelli continues to expect a two-stop race for almost every car. The broader weekend schedule and circuit characteristics can be found in the 2026 Bahrain GP at Sepang guide.
The two-stop, three-stint strategy is considered the fastest option in Pirelli’s simulations. There are two main variations: starting on the Medium before switching to two sets of Hard tyres, or starting on the Soft and then completing two stints on the Hard.
The second option takes advantage of the additional grip offered by the C4 Soft, something that has been evident since practice began in Malaysia.
“The fastest two-stop strategy should be medium-hard-hard, or soft-hard-hard, which is only two seconds slower,” Pirelli Motorsport director Dario Marrafuschi explained.
Why a three-stop strategy remains a realistic option
A three-stop race should not be dismissed, however. Pirelli’s simulations suggest that it would cost only around five seconds in effective race time compared with the fastest two-stop approach.
That margin could become smaller as grip levels improve, particularly because a driver committing to three stops would probably be able to use the softer part of the available compound range more frequently.
“The three-stop strategy could become an option for two reasons. First of all, in terms of total race time — sorry, effective race time — it is only five seconds slower than the two-stop strategy. Five seconds might seem like a lot, but with the track improving, that gap could become smaller because if you choose a three-stop strategy, you would probably choose the softer range of compounds,” Dario Marrafuschi said.
The different compound sequences and stint lengths during the Grand Prix can also be compared through the ScuderiaFans F1 Tyre & Stint Analysis.
Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc face a different strategic choice
The second factor highlighted by Dario Marrafuschi concerns Max Verstappen, who will start from pole, and Charles Leclerc. Both drivers used a set of Hard tyres during FP3 and therefore no longer have that set available for the race.
That creates two broad possibilities. They can attempt to manage the pace carefully enough to extend their Medium or Soft stints, allowing them to complete a conventional two-stop race with fewer Hard tyres available, or they could seriously consider three stops and use the extra pit visit to maintain a more aggressive pace across four stints.
“The second element relating to the three-stop strategy is that we know at least two drivers, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, have already used a set of Hard tyres. Because the fastest two-stop strategy should be medium-hard-hard, or soft-hard-hard, which is only two seconds slower. Clearly, they have already used one set and therefore no longer have it available,” Dario Marrafuschi explained.
“This leads us to think that either they will be able to manage the pace with the Medium and Soft to achieve longer stints, or they are seriously considering a three-stop strategy using only one set of Hard tyres. So we think that, in any case, all three compounds will be used tomorrow because of this uncertainty over pace management and the risk of overheating and performance degradation. They will all be used.”
Soft and Medium degradation creates another Sepang option
Pirelli has also observed an important trend throughout the weekend: the degradation levels of the Soft and Medium compounds have not been dramatically different.
That could encourage some drivers to start on the Soft and exploit the additional grip provided by the C4 compared with the C3 Medium. If the difference in degradation remains relatively small, the extra initial performance of the softer tyre could make it an attractive opening-stint choice.
That decision will depend not only on outright tyre life but also on traffic, track position and how rapidly overheating develops. With several viable sequences available, Ferrari and its rivals will have multiple strategic routes to consider once the race begins.
The Hard tyre offers durability but costs around eight tenths
Relatively few drivers tested the Hard compound during the three practice sessions. However, Pirelli does not expect the C2 to present significant problems in terms of tyre life or degradation.
The compromise comes from outright performance. The Hard is expected to be considerably slower than the Medium.
“The C2 is a kind of guarantee in terms of durability and degradation, so I don’t think there will be any surprises from that point of view. Naturally, the pace is significantly slower. We expect it to be 0.8 seconds slower than the Medium. In any case, in our calculations, with this performance — slower on the first lap and taking its degradation into account — medium-hard-hard is actually the fastest option,” Dario Marrafuschi explained.
For Ferrari, the trade-off between tyre durability and outright pace will make stop timing particularly important. The evolution of the Scuderia’s race strategy can be compared through the Ferrari Pit Stop & Strategy Statistics.
Pirelli identifies the likely Bahrain GP pit stop windows
Dario Marrafuschi also provided indications of when the main pit-stop windows should open during the Grand Prix.
“The first pit-stop window would open on lap 12, while the second would be on lap 32. That means you can get at least 20 laps of performance from the Hard compound, which is a sufficiently good result.”
Those windows reinforce why the two-stop strategy remains Pirelli’s preferred solution. However, Sepang’s abrasive surface, lower-than-expected grip and relatively close Soft-to-Medium degradation leave enough uncertainty for alternative approaches to remain viable.
For Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc in particular, the missing fresh Hard set creates an additional decision. They can prioritise tyre management and extend the softer compounds, or potentially accept another trip through the pit lane in exchange for shorter, faster stints. With only five seconds separating the predicted two-stop and three-stop race times, strategy could become one of the defining elements of the Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang.
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