Azerbaijan GP – possible strategies: it will be difficult to make only one stop
The Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, scheduled for today at 13:00 Central European Time, promises to be an unpredictable event filled with unknowns and potential surprises. Both drivers and teams will need to prepare meticulously for what could be a very complex race. The variables are numerous: the weather is unstable, track temperatures are low, the wind is unpredictable, and tire management will play a decisive role. What can we expect from the tire choices? Almost the entire grid relied on the C6 Softs during free practice, which means that many drivers will only experience the C5 Mediums and C4 Hards properly in race conditions. Although the Mediums were used extensively in qualifying, their long-run performance remains a question mark.
Even those who ran the C5 Mediums in FP2 were unable to put in enough laps to have reliable data on their behavior over a race stint. This lack of knowledge is perhaps the biggest unknown teams will face heading into the Grand Prix. Will it be a one-stop race, or will two pit stops prove the safer option?
Pirelli’s strategic insights – Baku City Circuit – 51 laps
To better understand the outlook, we can look at the comments of Pirelli’s Motorsport Director, Mario Isola, after qualifying: “The clear fastest option will be a single stop. The Medium and Hard compounds will be the main players, barring of course any neutralizations. As for the Soft, its use in the race is unlikely, though not impossible. Some teams could choose it for a short opening stint, in order to run in clean air and then push all the way to the checkered flag.”
Isola added: “Starting with the Medium or the Hard will give greater flexibility in case of possible neutralizations, as we already saw in Formula 2 on Saturday. It will be a very uncertain race, with a grid order quite different from what we are usually used to.”
One stop is possible, but highly complicated
Unfortunately, for this weekend, there is not enough data available to build a clear strategic picture. What we can do instead is look back at last year’s race. In the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the majority of drivers went for a one-stop strategy. In fact, there were only 22 pit stops in total across the whole race.
This year, however, the situation is different. Drivers will be racing with tire compounds that are one step softer. The C4, which last year was the yellow-marked Medium, will be used as the white-marked Hard in today’s race. The driver who managed the longest stint on this tire in 2024 was Alexander Albon, who completed 20 laps out of 51. That number is not particularly reassuring. With careful management, it might be possible to stretch it to around 30 laps, but then the C5 Medium would still need to last for about 20 laps to complete a one-stop strategy—and there are serious doubts about whether it can remain competitive for that long.
Based on the available information, it seems more likely that teams and drivers will lean toward a two-stop strategy, primarily using the Hard C4 and Medium C5 compounds, just as Pirelli suggested. The C6 Soft, by contrast, is expected to be largely abandoned. If anyone chooses to use it, it would almost certainly indicate a planned two-stop race from the outset.
While a one-stop race cannot be ruled out completely, it remains a very difficult option to execute successfully. If the weather conditions we saw during qualifying return—cold temperatures, gusty winds, and possible showers—then neutralizations will be highly likely. Safety Cars or even red flags could play into strategies, making additional pit stops less costly by reducing pit lane time losses. All of this suggests that a two-stop race could ultimately prove to be the most effective approach in Baku.
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