Just a few days until the start of the 2021 Formula 1 season, with doubts, worries, hopes that raise expectations and curiosity. Fortunately, the tests are already behind us, with their endemic indecipherability and the nauseating chatter. The track – the real one, the one that talks to the stopwatch and that’s it, will now give the true measure of how we stand.
But how will the SF21 go? Is it fast, slow, competitive, a disaster? Will Ferrari be able to quickly get back on top and allow the two Carlo, aka Leclerc and Sainz, to fight at least behind Mercedes and Red Bull, keeping behind all the middle pack? After all the goal – declared by the drivers, team principal Mattia Binotto and sporting director Laurent Mekies – is third place.
Reassured by a power unit that is a big step forward compared to the throttled (and in fact “penalized”) one of 2020, Ferrari is expected to make a big leap in quality, up to fighting for the podium, which should be the minimum goal when you hit the track with a red car. But can Ferrari in Sakhir go to the podium? Yes and no, let’s see why.
Why the podium is possible
According to those who drove together with the red car at the Bahrain test, Ferrari has hidden well, not revealing its potential. The SF21 for some is an evolution of the SF1000 but in reality it is much more. The car aims to recover the aerodynamic efficiency and stability of the underestimated SF90, the rear has been revised, the work on the aerodynamics has been surgical and the engine is back to being powerful, perhaps more than Ferrari has shown in the tests, given that for many hours the drivers avoided even using the eighth gear.
Charles Leclerc in his race simulations gave the idea of walking with the arm out of the window, slowing down conspicuously in the engine sections. Carlos Sainz gave a glimpse of something more on the last day, with a much faster stint than the previous ones, a sign that the red car has performance to spare, kept hidden. By observing the onboards of the Spaniard at the wheel of the SF21 we can be allowed to hope: on the first day Carlos had set-up problems and his driving was nervous, while on Sunday he drove clean. It means that Ferrari responds to the adjustments and has given positive feedback to a driver who was at the wheel of the car for the first time. A good sign for this season.
In summary: powerful power unit and improved car overall should allow Ferrari to leave the disastrous 2020 behind and make an unexpected step forward, immediately relocating it where it should compete, or among the big ones. Let’s not forget that Ferrari remains the only team capable of competing for the title against Mercedes in the hybrid era. And some rivals have already indicated the SF21 as a surprise this year.
Why the podium is unlikely
After all, the SF21 is still an evolution of the heavy and unbalanced SF1000. A few more horsepower will help the car on the straights, but it will not allow it to regain the lost efficiency and to counter much more better balanced cars. The McLaren-Mercedes has superior aerodynamic finesse and a power unit of another level. Closing the gap with them based on mere improvement is a rather strange hypothesis.
In addition, the Aston Martin of Sebastian Vettel is a Mercedes painted green, which at least on paper should be strong, for efficiency, stability and power, higher than the SF21. And in the tests, the Ferrari did not seem that fast, revealing itself in the race simulations of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz only a little faster than Alfa Romeo and AlphaTauri. A team that wants to fight for the podium should have been a lot faster than the little Sauber on track, while Ferrari seemed to suffer from tyre degradation and an inconsistent pace at times. Maranello’s target is to go to Q3 and fight for points with Alpine, perhaps the most direct rival.
The conclusions. It can therefore be seen in two different ways, by evaluating the clues that were provided to us in the pre-season tests. Hoping that the optimism of the will overcomes the pessimism of reason and that Maranello will be able – as it has done at other times in its very long history – to rise again like a phoenix from one year to the next. On the other hand, recovering quickly is one of the trademarks of a team that after terrible years has almost always fought back, surprising everyone. Will it be like this this time too?
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