Unpredictable test data, significant gaps after the top four, and several key drivers under the spotlight: the 2026 Formula 1 season begins with more questions than answers.
“Has Mercedes been hiding? I don’t know.” That is how journalist Giorgio Terruzzi summed up the biggest doubt emerging from pre-season testing on the podcast Terruzzi Racconta. Many in the paddock had labeled Mercedes as overwhelming favorites, and the new power unit appears to confirm a potential technical advantage. But how real is that edge?
Stefano Nicoli remains cautious about using the word “overwhelming.” “In my opinion they are favorites based on what we’ve seen and on what Mattia Binotto told us. They could have half a second in hand and only show a tenth of it.” The suspicion is clear: Mercedes may have kept something in reserve during the Bahrain test sessions.
Behind them, based on the data from Bahrain, appear to be the two Ferrari drivers. Charles Leclerc is therefore placed among the very first challengers, potentially just under a tenth away from the true benchmark pace. It is a position that keeps him fully in the title fight for F1 2026, but without any absolute certainty about the real competitive order.
McLaren impressed with both race pace and reliability, although Nicoli noted that the car appeared slightly overweight during testing. “Andrea Stella said that in Melbourne they will be compliant,” he explained, suggesting there is still untapped performance to come. Red Bull, meanwhile, has been a positive surprise. “I expected more difficulties,” Nicoli admitted. And then there is Max Verstappen — a factor capable of shifting any competitive balance regardless of pure car performance.
Among the drivers under particular scrutiny are Lewis Hamilton, who is expected to reaffirm his status at the front, and Oscar Piastri, who according to Terruzzi “has to respond to Norris and to himself.” Then came the bold prediction: “I’m betting on Kimi Antonelli as 2026 world champion.” A gamble, certainly, but if Mercedes truly has a title-winning car, the logic is not entirely far-fetched.
Attention is also focused on Isack Hadjar, on Arvid Lindblad, and on the Williams pairing, with Carlos Sainz who — according to Nicoli — “could start knocking on some doors” if the season fails to take off as expected.
One fact seems clear: after the top four teams, the gap exceeds one second. The exact order at the front remains difficult to decode, but the leading group appears to be defined. The real question heading into the opening round of the 2026 Formula 1 season remains just one: who has truly shown their full potential?
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