The statements from the recent F1 pre-season tests have been rather confusing: who is telling the truth, and who is hiding something?
What a mess
It’s not easy to understand, even with data from the Bahrain tests, which team has actually worked best in this opening phase of the season. One thing is certain: among the contenders for pre-season supremacy, Aston Martin will not be in the running, with Lance Stroll ending up a full four seconds behind the top teams. Only time will tell who is being honest and who is playing mind games.
Mercedes points to Red Bull as the benchmark
Toto Wolff from Mercedes has already been upfront, referring to GPS data that leave little room for doubt, with a Red Bull capable of gaining a full second on the straights thanks to its energy management. Wolff clearly identified Red Bull as the “reference point” at the start of the season. This assessment was also echoed by Carlos Sainz of Williams, powered by Mercedes, who spoke of a Red Bull power unit that is “a clear step ahead” of all others.
McLaren sees itself behind Ferrari and Red Bull
On Thursday, February 12, Lando Norris did not hesitate to place Ferrari ahead of his McLaren, describing it as “not fast enough” compared to the Italian rival over long runs. He also noted that the Red Bull power unit is “very good from several points of view, especially in efficiency,” making it “a solid step forward” compared to Mercedes, which powers his team.
More cautious was technical director Rob Marshall, who explained: “I thought there would be a team with a winning package from the start, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. I don’t think anyone will be able to pull away from the group.”
Red Bull sees itself as the fourth force
Already yesterday, Max Verstappen had dismissed the “favorite” label that Toto Wolff had attributed to Red Bull as pre-season mind games: “Mercedes isn’t showing its true face. Let’s wait and see how much power they have in Melbourne. Everyone is saying whatever they want. And then Wolff talks about one or two horsepower due to the compression ratio issue—he’s probably forgetting a zero.”
This morning, Red Bull technical director Pierre Waché spoke clearly: “We are definitely not the reference point. For us, it’s clear that the top three teams are Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren. According to our analysis, they are ahead of us, and we believe we are behind them at the moment.”
And what about Ferrari?
Ferrari has maintained a low profile, running a smooth test program with no issues. Reliability seems solid, and long runs are promising. Maranello has remained tight-lipped, focusing intently on work with the SF-26. Prior to Bahrain, there was some optimism in the corridors of Ferrari’s management, hinting that the team might have an ace to play at the right moment. Yet other teams may also have surprises in store, so caution is warranted.
Only Charles Leclerc ventured an opinion on the top rival teams: “Now there are 15 parameters to hide performance, so it’s hard to understand where we stand compared to others. Red Bull looks strong, but Mercedes is also performing well. They are still hiding a lot. McLaren is the big question mark and the hardest to evaluate.”
A cautious approach that is both sensible and understandable, especially after the disappointments of recent years.
The 2026 pre-season has therefore transformed into a high-stakes poker game, where every team principal and driver is desperately trying to deflect the pressure of being the favorite. While the GPS data suggests a Red Bull advantage, and Ferrari’s reliability looks bulletproof, the true hierarchy remains a mystery that will only be solved when the engines are cranked to their maximum in Melbourne.
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