Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen are all fighting for second place in the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship, with George Russell holding a remarkably narrow advantage. With Kimi Antonelli having secured the world title following a dominant performance in Mexico, attention turns to the battle behind the Italian. Just nine points separate George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, making the fight for the runner-up position one of the closest contests of the season.
According to the estimated probabilities, Max Verstappen is the favourite with a 30% chance of finishing second, followed by George Russell on 26%, Charles Leclerc on 21% and Lewis Hamilton on 20%. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri remain mathematically involved, although their chances are considerably smaller. The final five Grands Prix will determine whether Ferrari can secure second place or whether Mercedes and Red Bull will prevail.
The battle for second place in the 2026 F1 championship
There is still something worth fighting for beyond the world championship itself. With Kimi Antonelli, the extraordinary young driver from Bologna who has transformed the Formula 1 landscape, having settled the title contest, the race for second place now takes centre stage.
Finishing runner-up might not carry the same significance in Formula 1 as winning the championship, but securing a place immediately behind such a dominant driver would still represent an important achievement. Six drivers retain at least a mathematical chance, although some are much better positioned than others.
From Ferrari’s two contenders to the McLaren drivers, and from Lewis Hamilton to Max Verstappen, the final stages of the championship promise an intriguing contest. The remaining points and different circuit characteristics could prove decisive, with the potential outcomes also explorable through the F1 Championship Points Calculator.
Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – 144 points, 1% chance
Oscar Piastri remains mathematically in contention, but his chances are extremely limited. The Australian trails George Russell by 98 points, an enormous deficit with only 125 points theoretically available across the final five Grands Prix. Overturning that gap would require a remarkable sequence of victories alongside a substantial collapse in results for Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull.
The statistics offer little encouragement. Oscar Piastri has yet to win a race in 2026 and has not finished on the podium since Miami. His best technical opportunity could come in Qatar, where the fast corners of the Lusail circuit may suit McLaren’s characteristics. Mexico and Las Vegas, with their lower-grip corners, appear considerably more challenging.
Realistically, the Australian’s prospects of finishing second are almost nonexistent, even if the mathematics have not yet eliminated him.
Lando Norris (McLaren) – 211 points, 2% chance
Lando Norris remains a potential contender if McLaren can rediscover its strongest form. The reigning world champion trails George Russell by 31 points, a deficit that is still recoverable but will require much better results than his fifth-place finish at the United States Grand Prix in Austin.
Victories in Hungary and at Zandvoort demonstrated that McLaren can be particularly competitive through demanding sequences of corners. That characteristic could make Lusail a favourable opportunity, provided the Qatar Grand Prix goes ahead as planned.
Las Vegas appears more complicated. Heavy braking zones, slow corners and the challenges associated with tyre performance could make life difficult for the McLaren driver. Lando Norris has also gone four consecutive Grands Prix without a podium finish, underlining the lack of recent momentum in his campaign.
His opportunity remains alive, but McLaren will need a significant improvement if he is to challenge the drivers ahead.
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) – 241 points, 20% chance
Lewis Hamilton has one of the strongest opportunities to finish second in the championship. The seven-time world champion is currently third in the standings, only one point behind George Russell, and has been more consistent than Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc throughout the 2026 season.
One of Lewis Hamilton’s greatest strengths remains his tyre management, an especially valuable quality at circuits where strategy and changing conditions can make the difference. Brazil, with its unpredictable weather, could provide an opportunity to exploit that experience, while Abu Dhabi may also reward his ability to manage tyre performance effectively.
The British driver won in Barcelona, but his more recent results have been mixed. After reaching the podium in Malaysia, Lewis Hamilton finished sixth in Singapore and fourth in Austin. Those performances have kept him firmly in contention without allowing him to establish a meaningful advantage over his closest rivals.
Qualifying performance will be particularly important in the closing races. Starting further back on the grid, especially in Las Vegas, increases the risk of encountering traffic and struggling with cold tyres. Ferrari will therefore need to help Lewis Hamilton rediscover stronger single-lap speed if he is to maximise his chances.
The challenge is significant, particularly given the recurring Ferrari balance difficulties Lewis Hamilton identified after the United States Grand Prix. Nevertheless, the small championship deficit means that second place remains a realistic target.
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 233 points, 21% chance
Charles Leclerc sits nine points behind George Russell, but his recent performances suggest that Ferrari is moving in the right direction. Consecutive second-place finishes in Singapore and Austin have highlighted the SF-26’s improving competitiveness and strengthened the Monegasque driver’s prospects of finishing runner-up.
Unlike the more consistent Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc has experienced a season characterised by occasional setbacks and exceptional performances. When everything has come together, however, the Ferrari driver has demonstrated the speed needed to challenge the leading contenders.
Las Vegas could represent one of his strongest opportunities. The circuit places considerable emphasis on precision under braking and straight-line speed, two important elements for producing a competitive lap. Charles Leclerc has already demonstrated his ability at the venue, securing pole position there in 2023.
Mexico presents a different challenge, with the high altitude reducing aerodynamic downforce and making cooling more difficult for every team. These characteristics will place additional demands on Ferrari’s technical package.
The recent upward trend has nevertheless provided encouragement, particularly after Charles Leclerc’s impressive second-place finish in Austin, where he demonstrated strong race pace and fought his way past Max Verstappen.
If Charles Leclerc can maintain the performance shown in recent Grands Prix while improving his qualifying results, second place in the championship is genuinely within reach.
George Russell (Mercedes) – 242 points, 26% chance
George Russell currently occupies second place behind Kimi Antonelli and therefore has his destiny in his own hands. However, his advantage over Lewis Hamilton is just one point, leaving virtually no margin for error.
At the beginning of the season, George Russell was widely considered a leading championship favourite. Instead, it is his Mercedes teammate who has dominated the campaign, creating an enormous contrast between the performances of the two drivers.
Mercedes has won 12 Grands Prix in 2026, including three victories for George Russell. Despite the substantial gap between the British driver’s performances and those of Kimi Antonelli, the underlying speed of the W17 remains an important asset in the fight for second.
Las Vegas could provide an opportunity. George Russell won at the American street circuit in 2024, and its emphasis on braking performance and traction could suit Mercedes. However, the W17 has occasionally struggled with corner entry during certain phases of races, creating difficulties that have affected the British driver’s competitiveness.
His recent form is another concern. Across the last three Grands Prix, George Russell has recorded a retirement, ninth place and eighth place. Those results are hardly reassuring for a driver trying to defend such a narrow championship advantage.
The Mercedes driver remains well positioned, but maintaining second place will require a substantial improvement in consistency.
Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 236 points, 30% chance
Max Verstappen may be six points behind George Russell, but the Red Bull driver enters the final stages of the season with arguably the strongest momentum of the leading contenders. Consecutive victories in Malaysia and Singapore were followed by third place in Austin, demonstrating a clear improvement in his competitiveness.
The Dutchman also has a formidable record in Mexico, where he has claimed five victories. Max Verstappen won in Las Vegas in 2025 and has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to make the difference in wet conditions at Interlagos, making Brazil another potentially important opportunity.
Red Bull’s race pace has improved considerably, although the team was unable to match Kimi Antonelli’s Mercedes at Austin. Max Verstappen nevertheless remained competitive, finishing third after a hard-fought race that included another intense battle with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.
If Red Bull can maintain its recent level of performance, Max Verstappen has every chance of overturning the six-point deficit and securing second place in the Drivers’ Championship.
Ferrari faces a close fight for second in the final races
With George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc separated by only nine points, the battle for second place remains extremely difficult to predict. The estimated probabilities favour Max Verstappen, but Ferrari has two drivers with realistic opportunities to move ahead of George Russell.
Lewis Hamilton’s consistency and tyre management could become decisive, while Charles Leclerc’s improved race pace has given Ferrari another strong contender. Mercedes still holds the advantage in the standings, and Red Bull arrives with renewed momentum.
Much will depend on the characteristics of the remaining circuits, the ability of each team to extract performance from its car and whether the leading drivers can avoid costly mistakes. The championship itself may have been decided by Kimi Antonelli, but the battle immediately behind him still offers plenty of reasons to follow the final rounds of the 2026 Formula 1 season.
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