Mercedes won the first eight races of the season, but Scuderia Ferrari has caught up. The concept of the Italian car is getting better and better, as the Maranello team has been improving on one lap and over the race distance. Ferrari has clinched four pole positions in a row, three race victories, a double victory and a third place since the start of the second half of the season. In Russia, Ferrari for the first time even had a car that was at least equal to Mercedes in the race – if not a faster one.
On the straights the red cars are in a league of their own. In qualifying for the 2019 Russian Grand Prix, Ferrari was by seven and a half tenths faster than its main adversary on all straights, but thanks to the latest upgrades the SF90 car is now also able to keep up in the corners. Lewis Hamilton recovered three and a half tenths in the slow corners. In the medium-speeds there was practically a tie.
Ferrari faster in the race
In the race it took 14 laps until Hamilton was faster on the medium tyres than Sebastian Vettel on the soft compound for the first time. It was not until lap 21 that Mercedes took advantage of its more resistant starting tyres. From this moment on, the four-time Russian winner was half a second faster than Sebastian Vettel. But he was still 6.7 seconds behind. Ferrari was fast and took better care of the soft tyre than Mercedes had expected. If Sebastian Vettel hadn’t dropped out, Charles Leclerc would probably have won the race. Without the retirement Ferrari would have celebrated its second double victory in a row.
Mercedes would have had the fresher and more intact tyres in the final stages of the race, but how could you have got past the superiority of Ferrari on the straights? Probably only if the Ferrari drivers had made mistakes. The main actors in Sochi praised each other.
“We’re faster in qualifying. In the race Mercedes is always clearly improving compared to Saturday. They have a damn fast racing car. Ferrari had an advantage in the race,” admitted Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff. “If we see the glass half-empty, Ferrari was faster in qualifying and racing.
Ferrari dreamed of the World Championship after the winter tests and was quickly grounded. Mercedes was right on target with its concept of maximum contact pressure. At the latest in Barcelona it became clear to the last Ferrari optimist that Maranello has a problem. In the last section Mercedes beat up the Reds. “We were very weak on a track for maximum contact pressure. We had to react. In the factory we identified the weaknesses and adjusted the development programme accordingly,” explains Ferrari Team Principal Mattia Binotto. Only the defending champion’s reliably brought the Pirelli tyres into their working window. Ferrari didn’t. The engineers brushed the SF90 to efficiency. Mercedes, on the other hand, trimmed his car so that it was unbeatable in the corners. At the price that the W10 can’t follow the SF90 on the straight. The increase of the fuel limit from 105 to 110 kilograms for the race played Mercedes into the cards. It was possible to afford to build up more air resistance.
Ferrari did not capitalize on its opportunities
After the performances in the first half of the season, Ferrari left its fans disappointed. In Hungary all weaknesses of the SF90 were relentlessly revealed. It was the low point for a team which had high expectations after the the winter testing session. The front wing of the SF90 was designed to bring the vortices to the outside of the front wheel to clean up the turbulence generated by the moving tire, and has ensured a low drag, but also a lower downforce on the front axle, while Mercedes did not hesitate to go for a front wing which is less sensitive to outwash.
In the slow curves Ferrari lost a lot of time, in the last sector the rear tires overheated. Ferrari learned from the disaster. Engineers and drivers drew the right conclusions and the better understanding for the car was shown in Singapore.
The last four races silenced the critics. Ferrari was not only fast on its showpieces in Belgium and Italy, where engine power is above all else, but also in Singapore and Sochi. So in Maranello they can’t be so wrong with the car concept. A closer look reveals that Ferrari could have done much better in the first half of the year: the Italian side could probably still have had a chance to fight for the title with 5 races to go until the end of the season, if the team had capitalized on its opportunities as consistently as Mercedes.
If everything had gone well, Ferrari could have won five of the first twelve races. But the Scuderia stumbled over technology, driving errors and strategy decisions. Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Canada, Austria, Germany: These could have been Ferrari races – some had to be.
In Bahrain it was the engine, in Azerbaijan Charles Leclerc’s driving mistake in qualifying, in Canada the stewards. In Austria the strategists should have ordered Charles Leclerc to increase the speed earlier. It was foreseeable that Max Verstappen would become dangerous. In Germany Ferrari knocked themselves out in the qualifying. Well, the rain came on race Sunday.
Tire window will be bigger in 2020
The last Grands Prix have confirmed Ferrari can take the challenge to next year. That’s why team boss Mattia Binotto wants to stick to the concept of low drag in 2020. “Next year’s car will be an evolution. A healthy balance between downforce and drag is important. Low air resistance helps you with top speed and, for example, fuel consumption,” says Mattia Binotto.
The 2020 tires could give Ferrari a steep pass. Pirelli has been requested to build tyres with larger working windows. It is to grow from 30 to 40 degrees. This should help Ferrari to slide into the magic window with less contact pressure. And this is precisely one reason for the current strength of the Italians. Thanks to the better understanding and the new parts, Ferrari has already made the Pirelli’s working window more reliable. The tyres are the vehicle’s only contact with the ground. You can build an aerodynamic car however good it is, if the tyres stay too cold, you are powerless.
Mercedes is pursuing the other extreme this year: downforce on all levels. The world champions admit to at least thinking about a concept change for 2020. Wolff restricts: “The difference between much and little air resistance is two tenths of a second on the straight.”
It is much more important to find out what Ferrari does with the engine. Over 50 HP mobilizes the competitor product in certain phases. The Silver Arrow engineers calculated this for qualifying, at the start and at the restart. Of course, Ferrari customers would also like to have this power syringe. That would make life easier for Alfa Romeo and Haas in the crowded midfield. Lewis Hamilton speaks reverentially of the “jet mode”. Exactly this additional performance is a wild card for Ferrari. Imagine the SF90 had as much downforce as the Mercedes. Then the silver permanent winners would probably have followed in most cases this year.
Suzuka as the main test
If you have so much more power, you have to drive to pole position with a sensible car that is in the tyre window. And from there you can control the race. The tyres can be better protected in the open air, while the opponent pays at the same time in the turbulences.
If Mercedes doesn’t catch up in the engine 2020, the defending champion will have a hard time with the current concept. The same applies to Red Bull. If Honda doesn’t catch up with Ferrari, you have a problem. And the racing team from Milton Keynes still has to clean up construction sites with its chassis. The car is only fast if all the parameters are right. If not, the whole car gets nervous.
On the other hand, if Mercedes unveils the secret and pulls the same performance, the trump cards go back to Brackley. According to the current status, the upcoming race in Suzuka will be a test for everyone. In Japan, pressure is needed in the fast and long corners. And it needs engine power. If Ferrari is victorious in Suzuka, the alarm bells at Mercedes should ring. The 2019 titles are no longer in danger. But in 2020 the balance of power could turn. Mercedes will be retrofitting at the GP Japan. The package was approved weeks ago in Brackley. It is the first since the race in Hockenheim. “We deliberately distributed our resources, also with a view to 2020,” says Toto Wolff. The team boss speaks for Japan of small improvements, the engineers of decent progress. The factory has already set its course for 2020. This also applies to Ferrari. “If we can do anything else, it certainly won’t be to the same extent as in Singapore,” says team boss Binotto. On the other hand: “Everything we learn now will help us next year”. This also applies to Mercedes: The rules remain almost unchanged.
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