China: Ferrari eyes opportunity as energy management may narrow Mercedes lead. Insights from Shanghai show how energy management and track layout could reduce Mercedes' advantage .

The Melbourne weekend highlighted just how crucial energy management is to the balance of power and race dynamics, immediately raising questions about what to expect in China. Early data suggests the situation might be less critical than in Australia, but with the big unknown of how the long straights tackled with low downforce will impact performance. Much will depend on this factor, which could influence the extent of Mercedes’ advantage on a track that otherwise benefits Ferrari’s more responsive engine.

Energy data

Data from the Shanghai circuit points to a very different energy management scenario. Historical ground effect-era numbers, while not directly comparable to today’s cars, indicate that in 2025 drivers spent up to 400 meters less at full throttle per lap in China than in Melbourne. Compared to Australia, average qualifying speeds in Shanghai were nearly 40 km/h lower, reducing both fuel and energy consumption.

However, the long back straight remains a challenge for the battery. With previous-generation cars, drivers could stay flat out for up to 17 seconds there, compared to 15 seconds on the long second sector in Melbourne—but with an important difference. In Australia, this section was preceded and followed by very light braking, limiting the battery recharge, and requiring careful energy saving for the following high-speed section between turns 10 and 11. In Shanghai, by contrast, the longest straight is flanked by two heavy braking zones, which ease the hybrid “energy debt.”

Ground effect-era statistics

Speaking of brakes, Brembo estimated that in 2025 the time spent braking in China was almost double that at Albert Park. Knowing that the battery can recover up to 350 kW during braking, a rough calculation gives 5.7 MJ of recoverable energy in Shanghai versus 2.9 MJ in Melbourne. If confirmed, this would mean less extreme clipping and energy-saving strategies on the straights, allowing drivers to race more naturally.

The risk of technical sections

On paper, all this should level out recharge strategies, making overtakes and race dynamics more traditional. Another potential effect is a reduction in Mercedes’ dominance. The Silver Arrows demonstrated clear superiority, particularly in qualifying, thanks in part to their powerful Brixworth power unit. The excess horsepower allows Mercedes to divert some energy to recharge the battery and/or rely less on hybrid boost—a benefit that diminishes the more points there are to recover energy under braking.

Still, caution is necessary, as another unknown remains. The technical second sector in Shanghai is a long section taken at high speed with low downforce—a combination that increases energy consumption. Much of the weekend’s dynamics will depend on how this factor interacts with others that should make energy management easier.

What is certain is that teams will already build on lessons learned during the first weekend, adjusting battery recharge strategies. The comparison between the new Formula 1 and Formula E isn’t just about driving style—it’s also about a development race heavily influenced by management software updates. In Australia, Charles Leclerc explained that the system learns from previous laps and adapts in real time, suggesting that all teams will improve in this area over a full weekend, with gains becoming even more evident after the first three races.

The power unit alone is not enough

While crucial, energy management is not the only factor likely to alter the gaps seen in Australia. The higher braking times, for example, indicate the presence of multiple low-speed zones where corner exit power is vital. Here, Ferrari can exploit its smaller turbo and an engine that delivers strong low-end torque—a quality masked in Australia by a track that emphasized outright power.

Attention will also turn to aerodynamics and chassis performance, as the many sweeping corners will primarily test the stability of each car. Long sections run with low downforce will put prolonged strain on tyres under maximum aerodynamic load. Pressures and temperatures are likely to rise, along with thermal degradation, making tyre management even more critical.

Overall, numerous factors will affect the competitive order. Even Frédéric Vasseur, while acknowledging Mercedes’ strength and their status as favorites, noted that the situation in China could differ from Australia. It is not a given that Ferrari will be the leading challenger. Red Bull has shown competitiveness in high-speed corners, but in Shanghai they will also face challenges in low-speed sections.

Sprint returns

Adding to the complexity is the Sprint format, the first of six such weekends. The reduction to a single practice session will be even more impactful this year, limiting track time to experiment and refine energy management strategies. With two races, there will also be two starts, with a 315-meter distance from the grid to the first corner—about 40 meters longer than in Australia. Ferrari-powered cars hope to leverage the strong starts seen in Melbourne, though it is unlikely to change predictions that still favor Mercedes.