Carlos Sainz and the statistic that weighs down former Ferrari drivers

At the end of the autumn break, Carlos Sainz will race his last six races with Scuderia Ferrari. The Spanish driver, starting from Abu Dhabi, will begin thinking about his new adventure with Williams. For the 30-year-old Spaniard, it is clearly a significant downgrade: unfortunately, the Grove team, a historic name in the Formula 1 lineup, hasn’t been in vogue for many years. The British team is trying to climb back up the standings, but the road still seems to be very long and winding and it is difficult to believe that the current Ferrari driver can wait for their progress.

For Carlos Sainz, the next six races will be his last in a top team, at least in the short to medium term: the fact that he was overlooked by Red Bull and Mercedes puts the Spanish driver in a position that is certainly not privileged for the rest of his career. There were contacts with both teams, but one wonders why the negotiations didn’t succeed.

Did the Spaniard ask for too much in terms of money? Did he drag it out too long? We will likely never have an answer to these questions, just as we will probably never know why the deal with Audi didn’t happen: the German team hasn’t exactly gotten off to the best start, and the reshuffling of recent months raises doubts about the competitiveness of the Four Rings brand starting in 2026, with the arrival of the new Formula 1 technical regulations.

In short, Carlos Sainz’s future in Formula 1 doesn’t seem particularly bright: the Spanish driver surprised everyone by accepting the offer from James Vowles and Williams, for the reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph. Against the continuation of his career is also a statistic that isn’t exactly favorable for drivers who have left Ferrari to continue with other teams.

Let’s examine some data regarding the performance of drivers who left the Italian side: starting in 1996, when the Michael Schumacher era began at Maranello, only two drivers have managed to win a Formula 1 Grand Prix after leaving the Scuderia Ferrari F1 team, namely Rubens Barrichello and Kimi Raikkonen, both with two victories to their name.

For the Brazilian driver, it all happened in the magical 2009 season with Brawn GP, winning in Valencia and at the Monza circuit, during the period when Jenson Button, his teammate and world champion at the end of the year, was trying to manage the advantage he had built up in the early races of the 2009 Formula 1 season. Rubens Barrichello had to settle for less, but at least he broke a significant taboo.

As for Kimi Raikkonen, who became champion with Ferrari in 2007, we are talking about his two wins with Lotus in Abu Dhabi 2012 and Australia 2013. The fact that the Finnish driver then returned to Maranello doesn’t change anything, because he still managed to “pull off the feat” of winning with a team other than Ferrari after leaving. All the others, starting with the champion Michael Schumacher, followed by other great drivers such as Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa, and Sebastian Vettel, not forgetting, of course, Eddie Irvine, never tasted the thrill of the top step of the podium again after the gates of Maranello closed behind them.

The feeling is that Carlos Sainz agreed with Williams while waiting for something more substantial, perhaps Mercedes, Red Bull, or why not, even McLaren, which at the moment couldn’t guarantee him a seat. Carlos Sainz is preparing as best he can for his last six races with Ferrari, both physically and, above all, mentally, as he is aware that these are very likely his last chances to win a race in Formula 1 for the rest of his career.