After securing third place during the qualifying session at Spa-Francorchamps, the clear objective for Scuderia Ferrari and Charles Leclerc is to aim for victory in the upcoming Belgian Grand Prix. However, McLaren is determined to secure another one-two finish and bring home yet another dominant result. The question remains: who will ultimately come out on top in Sunday’s race?
During the qualifying session, McLaren demonstrated a commanding pace, dominating the competition with both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri consistently at the front. Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari SF-25 and Max Verstappen in the Red Bull Racing car had to settle for third and fourth place respectively on the starting grid.
By examining and comparing the telemetry data gathered during qualifying and the Sprint Race, specifically from Charles Leclerc’s performance, it is possible to form a clearer picture of the likely contenders for victory in Sunday’s Grand Prix at Spa.
Could Charles Leclerc Have Taken Pole Position? A Look at the Telemetry Data
A detailed comparison of the telemetry from the fastest laps of the top three qualifiers reveals a significant difference in top speed from Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari. The SF-25 appeared to be running with a low-downforce setup, which gave it an advantage on the high-speed sections of the Spa circuit.
After each straight, especially on the Kemmel Straight — which is the longest straight on the entire track — Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari achieved the highest top speed among the front-runners. Specifically, Charles Leclerc reached a peak of 344 km/h, gaining approximately 5 km/h over both McLaren cars.
However, the situation changes dramatically in the more technical and twisty sections of the circuit. In corners such as Turn 12, both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were able to carry significantly more speed through the corner without compromising the stability of their McLaren MCL39s.
This performance gap is mainly due to strategic setup decisions made by the teams. As confirmed by McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella, Ferrari opted for a low-downforce configuration, which enhances performance in the faster sections of the track but compromises stability and grip in the corners.
This becomes especially evident in Turns 9 and 10, where Charles Leclerc was forced to brake — a move neither of the McLaren drivers had to make — thus losing momentum and time in that sector. This trade-off between straight-line speed and cornering performance could be crucial in deciding Ferrari’s chances of winning on Sunday.
Is Charles Leclerc’s Race Pace Competitive Enough?
Looking at the race pace shown by Charles Leclerc during the Sprint Race, there are both promising signs and some concerns. Running on the medium tyre compound, Leclerc maintained an average lap time of around 1:46.700. For comparison, Max Verstappen’s average was approximately two-tenths of a second faster per lap.
Both McLaren drivers also demonstrated stronger pace, with lap times consistently quicker than Leclerc’s throughout the Sprint. This trend became especially clear in the closing stages of the race, where Charles Leclerc lost considerable ground to the leading cars.
This raises legitimate doubts about Ferrari’s ability to compete for victory in dry conditions, especially if tyre degradation becomes a factor over a longer stint.
However, everything could change if rain were to hit the Spa-Francorchamps circuit during the race — a very real possibility given the region’s unpredictable weather patterns. Rain could reshuffle the competitive order, but not necessarily in Ferrari’s favour. The current low-downforce setup of the SF-25 may be less effective in wet conditions, where mechanical grip and downforce become even more critical for stability and control.
In contrast, McLaren and Red Bull Racing — both running with slightly more downforce — may find themselves in a stronger position if the Belgian Grand Prix is affected by rain. Their setups may allow them to handle the slippery conditions better, making them the favourites should the skies open up.
