Pirelli expects the Belgian Grand Prix to be decided largely during the opening phase of the race, with a one-stop strategy considered the most likely option and significant degradation anticipated on the softer compounds. Mercedes enters Sunday as the favourite according to Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra, although Lewis Hamilton’s consistent long-run pace has also made Ferrari an intriguing contender at Spa-Francorchamps.
The opening stint could prove decisive unless a Safety Car, Virtual Safety Car or another unexpected development changes the strategic picture. Medium and soft tyres showed substantial degradation during practice, while the hard C2 compound is expected to provide much greater consistency during the second half of the Grand Prix.
Pirelli expects a one-stop Belgian GP strategy
“We expect a one-stop race,” Simone Berra explained. “The two-stop strategy is not far away, but it is around ten seconds slower. It could come into play if a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car allowed someone to fit a fresher set of tyres and complete a more comfortable final stint.”
“I do not see any other reason to have two sets of hard tyres. With a two-stop strategy, you would then have to overtake on track, and that is not always particularly easy here. There is a risk of becoming involved in battles that would cost you time.”
The strategic focus is therefore expected to fall mainly on the first part of the race, when the softer tyre compounds could begin to struggle. Teams must also balance tyre preservation against Spa’s unusual MGU-K and energy-management demands, which influence how aggressively drivers can deploy power throughout the lap.
“From what we have seen, the medium and soft tyres have significant degradation, perhaps even higher than we expected before the weekend,” Simone Berra continued. “During the race simulations on both Friday and Saturday, they were losing at least one and a half to two tenths of a second per lap.”
“We expect that degradation to reduce slightly, but we still believe it will remain significant. We think the teams will tend to limit their use of the medium and soft tyres. The leading teams will probably start on the medium before switching to the hard.”
Why the hard tyre could dominate the second stint
The hard tyre has received relatively little running during the weekend, with only three teams—all outside the leading group—testing it extensively. Nevertheless, Pirelli’s understanding of the compound from previous races suggests that it should become the preferred option for the longest part of the Belgian Grand Prix.
“The hard was tested very little, only by three teams and none of them were at the front,” Simone Berra said. “However, based on data from previous races, we expect the C2 hard to be a very consistent compound with very low degradation. It should allow the drivers to push without any particular problems.”
On paper, the fastest Belgian GP tyre strategy is to begin on the medium compound and then switch to the hard between laps 17 and 23. That would allow teams to avoid extending the vulnerable opening stint too far while still completing a long and stable run to the chequered flag.
Soft-hard strategy remains a realistic alternative
Pirelli has not ruled out the soft-hard combination, especially for drivers who still have a new set of soft tyres available. The softer compound could offer additional grip at the start and may prove more predictable than the medium for certain teams.
“We are not excluding the soft-hard combination either, particularly for drivers who have a new set of soft tyres,” Simone Berra explained. “The soft is comparable to the medium, and for some teams it actually provided greater confidence and stability during the race simulation.”
“It is a tyre that gives you more grip, so it allows you to reach the limit more easily. The medium suffered from a little more sliding and, in some cases, behaved less predictably.”
A driver starting on the soft would be expected to stop between laps 13 and 19, although Pirelli believes some competitors could make their first pit stop even earlier.
“I would not be surprised if someone decided to bring the pit stop forward slightly,” Simone Berra said. “Once the hard tyre is fitted, the stint can be extended considerably, so there would be little point in managing too much during the first part of the race.”
The undercut could be powerful but carries a Spa risk
An early stop could create an undercut opportunity, although the effectiveness of that move will depend on how quickly the hard tyres reach their operating window. Spa presents a unique complication because drivers emerge from the pits and soon travel along the Kemmel Straight, where the tyres may lose temperature before the next major sequence of corners.
“The hard tyre may take some time to reach temperature,” Simone Berra warned. “After leaving the pits, there is the entire Kemmel Straight, so the risk of losing temperature is significant and the driver may struggle slightly on the out-lap.”
“However, there are two other factors. Degradation is high on both the soft and the medium, and when that happens, the undercut becomes favourable. The lap is also seven kilometres long, so a driver can make a much bigger difference over one lap than at almost any other circuit.”
The long lap and rapidly changing conditions are among the factors that make the Belgian Grand Prix weather forecast especially relevant. Even a small change in track temperature could affect tyre warm-up, degradation and the timing of the first pit stops.
How the new Spa has changed tyre management
According to Pirelli, managing rear-tyre temperatures will be the main priority on the softer compounds. That represents a change from previous editions of the Belgian Grand Prix, when front-axle limitations traditionally had the greater influence on race pace.
“In the past, Spa was more limiting for the front axle,” Simone Berra said. “However, from the data collected this weekend, we can see that the rear has become more limiting than it was previously.”
“This happens because the teams tend to protect the front tyres from possible graining. We saw very little of it between FP1 and FP2, and it should not be a factor during the race. Nevertheless, the teams know that the front axle is important for producing a precise car on corner entry and one that can sustain significant loads through the high-speed corners.”
The circuit’s transformation is also connected to the energy-management principles introduced by the new Formula 1 regulations. The way teams approach Pouhon is a particularly revealing example.
“With the new regulations, we have seen that the teams interpret Pouhon differently,” Simone Berra explained. “High-speed corners are an excellent source of energy recovery, so the drivers can manage the tyres more in those areas almost for free, and that allows them to exploit the rear tyres more aggressively.”
“This year, we have seen that the rear axle is subjected to greater thermal stress, partly because of the delivery of electrical power when exiting the corners.”
Those demands form an important part of the wider technical picture at Spa-Francorchamps, where aerodynamic efficiency, electrical deployment and tyre management must all be balanced across three very different sectors.
Pirelli backs Mercedes but sees promise in Ferrari’s pace
Looking ahead to the race, Simone Berra identified Mercedes as the team to beat after being impressed by Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s consistency during the long-run simulations.
“Mercedes is very consistent with Kimi,” he said. “He impressed me greatly during the race-pace simulations he completed in FP1 and FP2.”
By comparison, Max Verstappen appeared to find tyre and pace management more difficult in the Red Bull, although Pirelli does not have a complete understanding of the setup changes made between Friday and Saturday.
“I saw Red Bull struggling more with Max in terms of managing the pace, although we do not have definitive proof because we do not know what setup changes were made between Friday and Saturday,” Simone Berra explained.
Ferrari also attracted Berra’s attention, particularly through Lewis Hamilton’s soft-tyre run. The seven-time world champion maintained a consistent rhythm, providing encouragement after the tyre-degradation difficulties Ferrari had encountered at the Austrian Grand Prix.
“Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari pace yesterday was interesting,” Simone Berra said. “While using the soft tyre, he maintained a consistent rhythm. I do not know whether they worked extensively with the race in mind following what happened in Austria, where they suffered much higher degradation than their rivals, but in any case, I see Mercedes as the favourite.”
Ferrari therefore begins the Belgian Grand Prix as an outsider rather than the leading contender, but its tyre behaviour offers genuine hope. If Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton can manage the opening stint and reach the durable hard compound without losing too much ground, the Scuderia could still place Mercedes and Red Bull under pressure during the second half of the race.
Leave a Reply