With tyre degradation expected to be minimal at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, race strategy should largely converge around a one-stop approach. The more interesting question, however, could be which compound the teams choose for the start, because the soft, medium and hard are all realistic options. The medium offers valuable flexibility in the event of a Safety Car, while some drivers could instead gamble on an early neutralisation.
According to Pirelli’s measurements, the Baku asphalt has been unusually dirty this year, with the grip level recorded at the start of the weekend among the lowest seen across the entire season. That was a surprising finding because, despite the extremely smooth surface, there was no graining on Friday, even though the phenomenon is often seen at this circuit because of the difficulty of bringing the tyres into their operating window.
Minimal degradation makes a one-stop Azerbaijan GP the obvious choice
In practice, what had appeared to be the only significant concern regarding tyre life also proved to be a non-issue, further reducing the expected level of degradation. It is therefore hardly surprising that, according to Pirelli’s estimates, tyre wear should be extremely low. As early as Thursday, initial assessments suggested that the soft could cover a substantial portion of the race distance.
During the long runs, the Italian tyre manufacturer even recorded negative degradation, partly because of the significant improvement in track conditions. That development was nevertheless expected, as Baku’s smooth asphalt considerably limits tyre wear. Although the lap features several traction zones, the circuit should continue to improve during the race, helping to reduce wear even further. The behaviour of the different compounds and stint lengths can also be followed through the F1 Tyre & Stint Analysis.
What does all of this mean for race strategy? First of all, a one-stop race appears almost inevitable. Tyre durability is one reason, while another is the fact that a pit stop costs more than 19 seconds in Baku, an important factor that cannot be ignored. Secondly, the soft becomes a genuine race tyre because it provides a substantial increase in grip and, with degradation so limited, represents a credible option rather than simply a qualifying compound.
Soft tyre emerges as a genuine race option in Baku
Qualifying also demonstrated that tyre life should not be a concern. George Russell set his best Q3 time on the third attempt using the same set of soft tyres on his way to pole position in Baku. The real variable is therefore likely to be when the teams decide to use the soft compound.
The medium and hard tyres have a greater tendency to slide, generating overheating and thermal degradation. However, that effect could gradually decrease during the race as the track continues to improve.
What became clear on both Friday and Saturday was the particularly significant step in grip offered by the soft tyre. With no evident durability problems, it should therefore be considered one of the main race compounds. The changing track conditions and final preparations were also an important part of Saturday’s Baku FP3 analysis.
Pirelli itself identified the soft as part of the fastest strategy when paired with the medium. “In general, degradation is practically zero on all three compounds. But we think the C5 could be the best tyre,” Pirelli’s Simone Berra explained after practice.
Medium tyre offers Safety Car protection
So which tyre should the teams start on? On paper, the medium remains the most versatile choice. It allows drivers to extend the opening stint, provides protection against a possible Safety Car and leaves teams free to switch later to either the soft or the hard depending on when the pit stop takes place.
If a neutralisation were to occur very early, however, few teams would be likely to accept the risk of fitting the soft and attempting to reach the finish. A more conservative approach would instead be to switch to the hard tyre and run it to the end of the race.
That is also where the most interesting strategic possibility emerges. Drivers who need to recover positions could gamble by starting on the soft. The aim would be to exploit its additional grip at the start, where the compound’s ability to reach temperature more quickly could prove decisive in gaining places, before hoping for a Safety Car during the first part of the race that would allow a switch to the medium or hard.
All three compounds remain viable for the Azerbaijan GP
Starting on the hard tyre and hoping for the opposite scenario would certainly make it possible to extend the opening stint, but it would also make the first few laps more difficult to manage.
On paper, therefore, the ideal overall strategy could be similar for almost everyone, with a single pit stop expected to dominate the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Yet all three compounds remain usable in race conditions. Incidents, neutralisations and the strategic gambles made by individual teams could ultimately determine whether the soft, medium or hard becomes the preferred starting tyre.
Leave a Reply