The Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang could be decided as much by tyre availability, degradation and pit-stop timing as by outright pace. Max Verstappen starts from pole alongside Lewis Hamilton, but the remaining tyre sets, the behaviour of the Hard compound and the timing of the first stop are likely to shape a 56-lap race in which several strategic routes remain open.
The race starts at 15:00 local time, 09:00 in Italy, on a circuit that Pirelli places between Spa and Shanghai in terms of tyre severity. The complete weekend information is available in our 2026 Bahrain GP at Sepang schedule and circuit guide.
Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton occupy the front row, followed by Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc on row two. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri make up the third row, with George Russell seventh, Isack Hadjar eighth after his five-place grid penalty, Pierre Gasly ninth and Gabriel Bortoleto completing the top ten.
There is also an important lack of recent data. No team arrived with up-to-date Formula 1 information from this circuit, while 12 of the 22 drivers had never previously raced here in Formula 1. That made Friday practice considerably more valuable than usual.
Which drivers still have new Soft tyres for the Bahrain GP?
Each driver began the weekend with 13 dry-weather sets: eight Softs, three Mediums and two Hards, with an additional Soft set available to those reaching Q3. Pirelli’s prescriptions require every driver to keep one Hard and one Medium set available for the race.
Most of the field has already used the majority of its fresh Soft tyres across practice and qualifying. Based on the timing data and information that emerged after qualifying, Charles Leclerc is the only leading driver with two new Soft sets remaining.
Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton each retain one new Soft, while Kimi Antonelli, George Russell, Isack Hadjar, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have none left. Pierre Gasly and Gabriel Bortoleto each still have one new Soft among the top ten.
Hard tyre availability is different. Pirelli indicates that most drivers have two sets remaining, while Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc have only one each. That potentially pushes them towards strategies involving more Soft and Medium running or even three stops. Charles Leclerc created his unusual allocation in FP3, when he abandoned a second Soft run to gather information on the Hard instead. The choice also adds another dimension to the question of how Pirelli’s Sepang compounds could interact with the Ferrari SF-26.
High degradation puts the Hard tyre under the spotlight
Friday practice indicated substantial tyre degradation. On the long runs, the Soft lost an average of 0.22 seconds per lap of tyre age, while the Medium lost 0.25 seconds. Those numbers fall within the two-to-three-tenths-per-lap window Pirelli had anticipated.
The degradation curve was not linear. Performance dropped more sharply during the opening laps before the rate of loss slowed, while nobody extended a Soft or Medium stint beyond 20 laps.
The picture varied considerably between teams. McLaren recorded virtually no Soft degradation at -0.02 seconds per lap, compared with +0.05 for Red Bull, +0.10 for Mercedes and +0.29 for Ferrari, the highest value among the leading teams. On the Medium, Red Bull was strongest at +0.13, while Ferrari again recorded the highest figure at +0.42.
The full compound trends and stint patterns can be compared through the F1 Tyre & Stint Analysis.
The Hard remains the major unknown. Nobody used it during Friday’s two practice sessions, and Charles Leclerc was the only driver to run it in FP3, completing 12 laps.
Across five consecutive timed laps, the Monegasque recorded times between 1:41.208 and 1:41.778, corresponding to a degradation rate of roughly 0.03 seconds per lap. Over the same number of laps, used Soft tyres on Franco Colapinto, Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz lost between 1.2 and 1.7 seconds of performance.
Why Pirelli favours two stops at Sepang
Pirelli does not consider a one-stop strategy advantageous at a circuit where overtaking is possible in several places. On paper, the most competitive combinations are Medium-Hard-Hard and Soft-Hard-Hard.
Our calculation over 56 laps, using Pirelli’s estimate of 22.5 seconds lost for each pit stop, points in the same direction. Applying the degradation measured during practice, the quickest strategy begins with an approximately 11-lap Soft stint before switching to two long Hard stints.
A conventional one-stop loses around ten seconds under those assumptions. For drivers with only one Hard set, such as Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, however, the calculation becomes much tighter. The one-stop deficit falls to only 1.6 seconds, while Soft-Hard-Soft becomes the fastest option.
Everything therefore depends on how the Hard behaves over a long stint. If degradation were around 0.15 seconds per lap rather than the estimated 0.08, a three-stop strategy would become preferable.
For comparison, Max Verstappen won here in 2017 with only one stop, completing 27 laps on the Supersoft before running another 29 on the Soft. Tyre degradation was significantly lower at that time, however, while a pit stop cost approximately 23.5 seconds.
Safety Car and weather could transform the strategy
A neutralisation could completely alter the calculations. A pit stop under the Safety Car costs approximately 11 to 15 seconds rather than 22.5, producing a gain of roughly nine seconds in total race time for a driver who stops at the right moment.
Sepang has not historically produced frequent neutralisations in its most recent races. Across the last five editions, the Safety Car appeared only once, with the Virtual Safety Car also used once. Drivers retaining two Hard sets and a spare Soft have more flexibility to exploit a neutralisation than those with only one Hard available.
The weather remains another major variable. Rain probability for Sunday is above 30 per cent, with showers possible during the second half of the race. In wet conditions, Overtake is disabled and Straight Mode is only partially permitted, directly influencing passing opportunities.
The FIA has also declared a Heat Hazard because the heat index exceeds 31°C, placing additional strain on the drivers as well as the brakes and power units.
If track temperature is lower than on Friday, degradation could decrease. Forecasts suggest approximately 46°C compared with around 55°C during Friday running. That remains only one possible scenario, however, because heat conditions at Sepang are notoriously difficult to predict.
Where overtaking is most likely at Sepang
Turn 1 offers the clearest overtaking opportunity at the end of the main straight, which stretches for more than 900 metres. Cars arrive at more than 320 km/h before slowing to approximately 70 km/h.
Other major braking zones include Turn 4 at around 107 km/h, Turn 8 at approximately 76 km/h and Turn 15 at roughly 79 km/h after the long back straight, where speeds exceed 300 km/h.
Overtake becomes particularly important here. Detection is positioned at 5,110 metres, with the one-second threshold assessed there, while activation comes at 5,160 metres around Turn 15. A driver exiting the final corner within one second of the car ahead can therefore use the additional energy down the main straight towards Turn 1.
As the tyres begin to slide, following another car closely also becomes more costly when accelerating out of slower corners. Overtaking should consequently become easier when there is a meaningful difference in tyre compound or tyre age.
Max Verstappen starts from pole but has limited tyre flexibility
Max Verstappen starts from the front with the fastest car on the main straight and the strongest Friday long run, recorded on the Medium. His eight-lap-normalised average was 1:43.759, with traffic affecting 19 per cent of the run.
His strategic freedom is more limited, however, because only one new Soft and one Hard remain available. Looking ahead to the race, Max Verstappen was unequivocal about his objective.
“I’m happy with today and I’ll definitely try to win tomorrow,” Max Verstappen said.
Isack Hadjar starts eighth without any new Soft tyres, but his Red Bull showed the lowest Medium degradation on Friday at +0.09 seconds per lap. The French driver was satisfied with the car and believes he can make progress through the field.
Mercedes has race pace but no fresh Soft tyres
Kimi Antonelli starts third and showed Friday pace comparable with the leading runners, both on the Soft with a 1:44.340 average and on the Medium at 1:44.303.
George Russell, starting seventh, also produced one of the best Soft long runs at 1:44.332. The drawback for both Mercedes drivers is that they have already used every fresh Soft set.
Kimi Antonelli expects his race performance to be stronger than qualifying suggested, while George Russell believes a podium remains achievable in a strategically complex Grand Prix. One remaining question is whether Mercedes, winners of 11 of the opening 15 races, has resolved its difficulties over a single qualifying lap.
Ferrari has pace but carries the highest degradation
Ferrari appears to have enough underlying pace to fight at the front, but its major concern is tyre degradation, which was the highest among the leading teams during practice.
Charles Leclerc recorded Ferrari’s best Friday Soft long run with a normalised 1:44.320, while Lewis Hamilton was further back at 1:44.800.
Their available tyre sets also create very different strategic possibilities. Lewis Hamilton has one new Soft and two Hards available, while Charles Leclerc has two new Softs but only one Hard.
Lewis Hamilton described Saturday as a day of continuous changes, with the car sliding and Ferrari making one final adjustment before qualifying.
Charles Leclerc was already looking towards the race and the strategic opportunities created by degradation.
“I hope I’m not wrong, but I think degradation will create a much more exciting race, with different strategic options available,” Charles Leclerc said, as reported by Automoto.
Fred Vasseur added that it is easy to fall into strategic traps during a race and believes degradation and strategy will matter more on Sunday than qualifying performance. The wider technical picture can also be followed in the ScuderiaFans Ferrari technical analysis section.
McLaren’s low degradation comes with a straight-line limitation
McLaren delivered perhaps the biggest surprise in the degradation data. Its Soft tyre figure was almost neutral at -0.02 seconds per lap, although Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will start fifth and sixth without any fresh Soft sets remaining.
Straight-line performance appears to be the main limitation. Lando Norris made clear that the qualifying result was consistent with the car’s current level.
“Starting fifth is not a surprise,” Lando Norris explained.
Oscar Piastri also considered qualifying reasonable without suggesting that the team’s underlying pace issue had disappeared.
“It was a decent session, but we’re still struggling for pace,” Oscar Piastri said.
Despite that assessment, Oscar Piastri’s Friday Soft long run was among the strongest of the field at 1:44.363.
Who has the strongest combination of position, pace and tyres?
No leading contender appears to possess every advantage. Max Verstappen has pole position and the strongest straight-line speed, but only one new Soft and one Hard. Lewis Hamilton starts alongside him and has greater Hard tyre flexibility, although Ferrari’s degradation remains a significant concern.
Charles Leclerc is unique among the leading contenders in retaining two new Soft sets, allowing Ferrari to consider shorter and more aggressive stints on his side of the garage.
Kimi Antonelli and George Russell both have competitive race pace but no fresh Soft tyres. McLaren has the lowest measured degradation and starts fifth and sixth, but lacks straight-line speed. Isack Hadjar begins from eighth with a Red Bull that treated the Medium tyre particularly well and could therefore give him opportunities to recover positions.
The likely result is a race with more plausible strategic scenarios than the starting grid alone suggests. At Sepang, position remains important, but tyre availability, degradation and pit-stop timing could carry equal weight once the lights go out.
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