Bahrain: Ferrari with potential to secure podium at its weakest track, Piastri dominates qualifying. Piastri controls tricky McLaren for pole, while Ferrari finds progress through setup.

Oscar Piastri takes advantage of the synergy between the MCL39 and the Bahrain track, giving McLaren its third pole position of the year and positioning himself as a contender for a solo run. Lando Norris disappoints with only 6th place, though he’s aware he can capitalize on the Woking car’s strong race pace to recover positions. This sets up a podium battle between the Mercedes cars, excellent in preparation and execution this weekend, and a Ferrari on the rise, thanks especially to progress with balance.

McLaren’s weak spot
Fastest in FP2, FP3, Q2, and finally Q3. Oscar Piastri takes pole position for the Japanese Grand Prix, showing a driving style that highlights McLaren’s excellent traction on a twisty track that puts the rear axle under stress. Lando Norris, 6th on the grid, is a negative surprise. The Briton, slower than his teammate in all sectors, struggles to put together his best split times. “The car is great. The team is doing a great job, but I’m not,” Norris said in self-criticism.

At Suzuka, however, it was also Oscar Piastri who missed the chance for a pole that could have led to a win, making a mistake in Turn 2. While it’s no excuse for driving errors, the MCL39 continues to prove a non-intuitive car, difficult to drive at the limit over a single lap. In Bahrain, on a track so hot that Pirelli had to reduce rear tire pressures by 1 psi to manage overheating, there will be room for recovery. In the race, McLaren’s advantage in tire management will emerge, with every chance of securing a 1-2 even from the third row. However, the car’s vulnerability in qualifying will be an issue at other venues, like Jeddah, Imola, and Monaco—three of the next four races.

Mercedes ahead of the rest
Russell nearly gave Brackley a front row start before losing it due to a penalty for an early pit lane exit. Still, it was a positive result for the Briton, who had already put the W16 on the front row in China and had the potential to repeat in Suzuka if not for a Saturday mistake. George confirms himself as one of the best qualifiers on the grid, now pairing sharp driving with the ability to prep the tires to hit peak grip precisely. His performance adds even more value to Antonelli’s fifth place, just two tenths behind, on a track he finally knows well from testing and Formula 2.

The two Silver Arrows drivers worked in sync all weekend. On Friday, the team split setup choices between the cars to evaluate two very different approaches. By qualifying, the setup direction had converged, with Antonelli and Russell separated by less than a tenth in all sectors, after being 0.2 and 0.7 seconds apart in the first two sectors the day before.

Mercedes thus reaps the rewards of great preparation, but execution was just as strong. In the scorching and unrepresentative FP3 session, the team saved a set of softs, becoming the only one to enter Q3 with two sets. This move proved vital for Antonelli, who was able to recover from a lock-up on his first attempt. It won’t be easy for the Mercedes pair to reach the podium in their battle with Ferrari, but the car is far improved compared to the version that would have sunk on a hot, twisty track like Sakhir just a few months ago.

Ferrari, signs of recovery
The Scuderia from Maranello finished three tenths behind McLaren—a gap consistent with what was seen a week earlier in Japan, but with a key difference. Bahrain is the worst track for a car that thrives in fast corners, which are almost non-existent in Sakhir. Instead, the low-speed hairpins—plentiful in the Middle East—continue to trouble Ferrari. The track fully exposes the car’s balance issues, with abrasive and boiling asphalt that quickly overheats the tires with the slightest misstep.

The added downforce from updates provides a small boost, but the benefit from the new floor will be more noticeable next week on the flowing corners of Jeddah. “This isn’t the best track to exploit these upgrades,” Leclerc told SkySport F1, emphasizing that progress is instead coming from setup choices: “I’m satisfied. I’ve been pushing for several weekends in that direction I’ve talked about often, and it seems to be paying off more and more. I feel comfortable and it suits my driving style. I have to keep going in this direction and I’m sure it will pay off.”

The setup experiments of the past month are starting to yield results, also helping simulator work overnight and giving new life to a Ferrari that looked in trouble on Friday. A low point is Lewis Hamilton’s eighth place—consistently close to his teammate up to Q2, but imprecise when it was time to push the SF-25 to the limit. Charles Leclerc, instead, will start ahead of George Russell, confident of fighting for a podium in a car better suited to the race than to qualifying.

Red Bull running light
Max Verstappen will start only 7th, just a week after taking pole and winning in Japan. This time, the setup change doesn’t pay off, as Red Bull opted for lower-downforce wings compared to Friday—a puzzling choice on a weekend where tire management is critical. “We have no pace, no balance, and we’re struggling with the brakes,” Verstappen said. The braking system has been an issue all weekend, particularly limiting on a track with heavy braking zones—rated 4 out of 5 in severity by Brembo.

One bright spot for Milton Keynes is Yuki Tsunoda’s 10th place, his first time getting the second RB21 into Q3.

But the biggest surprise of the day is Alpine, with Pierre Gasly qualifying fourth. A combination of factors has kept the French team scoreless, but already in Australia, the French driver praised a car that responds well to steering inputs and setup changes. Slightly behind in eighth place is Carlos Sainz, finally ahead of Alex Albon on a track where he had previously impressed with the best time in testing. However, grid order will mean little in a high-degradation race where tire management will make the difference.