Ferrari unfortunately risks being left outside the main battle for victory at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix after a difficult opening day in Baku, with Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren all showing more encouraging race-pace potential. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton struggled across both qualifying simulations and longer runs, leaving the Scuderia facing significant work before the competitive sessions begin.
Mercedes currently appears to hold the strongest overall package, while Max Verstappen produced impressive pace for Red Bull and McLaren remains difficult to assess after another practice day in which the Woking team may not have shown its full potential. Ferrari, by contrast, has so far offered few indications that it can join that three-team fight without making a substantial step.
Mercedes sets the Azerbaijan GP race-pace benchmark
The 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend is following an unusual timetable, with the entire programme moved forward by one day because of a local holiday on Sunday. That meant Thursday already provided the first meaningful clues about race pace, rather than simply serving as the conventional opening day of a Grand Prix weekend.
Three drivers stood out most clearly during the longer runs. Max Verstappen was the quickest among those using the Soft tyre, although traffic affected the consistency of his stint. When the Red Bull driver found clear track, however, his pace was particularly strong.
George Russell arguably produced the most convincing performance of the day. The Mercedes driver combined outright speed with greater consistency and emerged as the strongest reference over the longer runs. Kimi Antonelli was unable to stay as close to his team-mate, although the championship leader had also lost approximately half of the opening practice session because of a technical problem and therefore entered FP2 with fewer laps than several rivals.
The evolving picture can be followed through the ScuderiaFans F1 Practice & Long-Run Analysis, which provides additional context for practice stint comparisons.
Red Bull upgrades put Max Verstappen firmly in contention
Red Bull’s opening performance suggested that its latest upgrade package is providing useful gains. Unlike some of its rivals, the Milton Keynes team did not appear to be disguising much of its performance during the opening sessions, and Max Verstappen immediately established himself as Mercedes’ closest challenger over race pace.
That puts Red Bull in a potentially strong position for the rest of the weekend. Mercedes may currently have the advantage, but the Dutch driver’s speed on the Soft compound suggests the gap is not enough to rule out a direct challenge once qualifying and the race arrive.
McLaren remains the major unknown in Baku
McLaren is more difficult to judge. The team has introduced a significant package of updates in Azerbaijan and the first indications suggest those changes are delivering benefits, but practice performance has repeatedly failed to reveal the full potential of the MCL40 this season.
The Woking team has often appeared relatively restrained during early practice sessions before finding considerably more performance later in the weekend. That pattern makes its current proximity to Mercedes and Red Bull particularly noteworthy. If McLaren again has additional performance available, the competitive order at the front could tighten considerably.
Mercedes nevertheless has an important advantage when considering the tyres used during the race simulations. Its encouraging pace came on the Medium compound, strengthening the argument that the W17 could remain the reference when the Azerbaijan Grand Prix takes place on Saturday. The strength already shown by the car throughout 2026 has also raised wider questions over the scale of Mercedes’ W17 advantage this season.
Ferrari absent from the main Baku race-pace fight
Ferrari’s position is considerably less encouraging. The Maranello team appeared to struggle during both its qualifying simulations and its race runs, leaving Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton behind the three teams currently setting the pace.
The SF-26’s straight-line weakness is particularly costly around Baku, where the long flat-out sections place an enormous premium on efficiency and power-unit deployment. Ferrari had already entered the weekend facing a demanding energy-management test on Baku’s long straights, and the opening sessions did little to ease those concerns.
There is still time for the Scuderia to find performance through setup work and data analysis, but the first day has left Ferrari facing the possibility of missing the direct fight for the podium and victory. Mercedes currently looks like the likely benchmark for qualifying, with Red Bull and McLaren potentially joining the race battle once the full performance picture becomes clearer.
For Ferrari, the challenge is therefore different. Rather than beginning the weekend as an obvious contender at the front, the team may need to recover enough performance to bring itself back into contention and then capitalise on the unpredictable nature of the Baku City Circuit. The concerns are consistent with the difficult Azerbaijan Grand Prix outlook surrounding the SF-26 before track action began.
Baku unpredictability may become Ferrari’s opportunity
On the evidence available after the opening sessions, the most realistic front-running picture points towards Mercedes, Red Bull and potentially McLaren. Russell has established the early benchmark, Verstappen has shown strong speed when free of traffic, and the true potential of the upgraded McLaren remains uncertain.
Ferrari still has room to improve, but its weekend has not started in the way the team would have wanted. Unless Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton can find a significant step before the decisive sessions, the Scuderia may have to rely partly on the unpredictability traditionally associated with racing in Baku to turn a difficult starting point into a strong Saturday result.
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