Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari chase breakthrough at the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku
Lewis Hamilton enters the 2025 Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix still chasing his first podium finish in red, while Ferrari continue to look for their long-awaited maiden victory of the current campaign. The Baku weekend represents another crucial test for the Italian side, who remain the only one of the so-called “big four” teams without a race win this year.
With 16 rounds already completed from the 24-race calendar, Ferrari’s lack of victories contrasts heavily with their rivals. McLaren, who have dominated much of the 2025 Formula 1 season, arrive in Azerbaijan with 12 wins to their name and the possibility of clinching the constructors’ championship in Baku. Red Bull sit behind them with three wins, while Mercedes have secured just one. For McLaren to mathematically wrap up the title on the streets of Baku, they must finish the race weekend by outscoring Ferrari by at least nine points, while also ensuring Mercedes and Red Bull do not gain 12 and 34 points more than them respectively. Despite Ferrari being McLaren’s nearest competitor in the standings, the Scuderia still find themselves 337 points adrift.
Ferrari drivers’ standings highlight uphill battle
Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have endured a challenging campaign so far. Ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the Monegasque driver sits fifth in the championship, while Hamilton is sixth. Both are far from Oscar Piastri’s tally at the top of the drivers’ standings, with Leclerc trailing the McLaren star by 161 points and Hamilton by 207. All of Ferrari’s five podiums this season have been achieved by Leclerc, underlining his consistency, while Hamilton’s best result since joining the Scuderia remains a fourth-place finish.
Tyre cooling concerns could complicate Ferrari’s Baku challenge
Although optimism exists within Maranello that Baku could be one of their better opportunities, there are concerns that could severely impact Ferrari’s performance. According to Motorsport.com, Ferrari’s simulations indicate that the unique layout of the Baku City Circuit might suit their car, but both drivers are also at risk of significant tyre cooling problems. Excessive cooling of the tyres is a particular issue in Azerbaijan due to the long straights and heavy braking zones, and these issues could become worse if rain affects Sunday’s race.
Leclerc has highlighted the Azerbaijan Grand Prix as one of Ferrari’s last three realistic chances to secure a race victory this year, alongside the upcoming Singapore and Las Vegas rounds. He believes the combination of Baku’s long straights and slow corners could play into Ferrari’s hands, though the weather and tyre behaviour remain huge variables. The Scuderia are taking confidence from data gathered at Monza, where Leclerc finished fourth and Hamilton sixth, which has helped establish a baseline set-up heading into the Azerbaijan weekend.
Pirelli compounds bring new challenges in Baku
This season, Pirelli has introduced a softer selection of tyre compounds for the Baku race compared to 2024. Instead of the C3–C5 range used last year, the Italian manufacturer has opted for the C4, C5 and C6 compounds, with the C6 soft making its first appearance in Azerbaijan. The choice has been made due to the circuit’s smooth asphalt, low abrasion levels, and historically low grip conditions. Last season, Leclerc finished second to Oscar Piastri in Baku, but the shift to even softer tyres could prove decisive.
Pirelli data shows that tyre temperatures in Azerbaijan have previously dropped by as much as 30°C during the race. Such sudden cooling is difficult for teams to manage, and Ferrari are particularly vulnerable in this regard. The softer compounds may reduce the operating window further, raising fears that Ferrari’s efforts in qualifying and the race could be compromised. Nonetheless, Ferrari hope they can continue their streak of strong qualifying performances in Baku, where pole position has been possible for the Scuderia in each of the last four seasons.
Uncertain weather forecast adds to Ferrari’s challenge
The weather forecast for the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is far from straightforward, with varying reports increasing the unpredictability of the weekend. Motorsport.com has warned of potential rainfall across both Saturday and Sunday, which would amplify Ferrari’s tyre cooling problems. However, Williams offered a more optimistic outlook in their pre-race forecast, suggesting only a 7% chance of rain on Saturday and predicting dry conditions on Sunday’s race day, with stable temperatures around 25°C. Such conditions would be much more favourable for Ferrari.
Other sources, however, project a higher chance of precipitation. Some forecasts mention a 22% risk of showers ahead of Friday’s first practice and up to a 30% chance during Saturday’s FP3 session. Wind levels are also expected to increase during qualifying, with strong gusts potentially unsettling the cars on Baku’s long straights and narrow sections. A few models even suggest Saturday could see an 80% likelihood of rain and a 16% chance of thunderstorms, which could drastically affect track evolution and strategy.
Despite the mixed predictions, most forecasts lean towards dry weather on race day itself. For Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton, this would be a welcome relief, as stable dry conditions in Baku would reduce the risk of tyre temperature drops and allow the team to maximise their qualifying pace and race strategy. Nonetheless, the looming uncertainty surrounding the forecast ensures that teams will need to prepare for all possible scenarios in one of Formula 1’s most unpredictable street circuits.
A pivotal weekend for Hamilton and Ferrari
The 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is shaping up to be a decisive chapter for both Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton. For the seven-time Formula 1 world champion, the search for a first podium in red continues, while the Scuderia remain under pressure to avoid finishing the year without a single victory. With McLaren on the brink of securing the constructors’ title, Red Bull pushing to regain form, and Mercedes lurking as opportunists, Ferrari’s performance in Baku could define the tone of their closing races of the season.
Whether Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc can overcome Ferrari’s tyre cooling challenges, adapt to Pirelli’s softer compounds, and take advantage of Baku’s unique layout will determine if the Azerbaijan Grand Prix finally delivers the breakthrough they desperately need. For Ferrari fans worldwide, the streets of Baku may either provide hope or confirm another missed opportunity in a season that has already slipped away.
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