The Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2023 is about to start. After yesterday’s Sprint Race, we were able to evaluate the values on track, although the use of only the medium compound tire did not offer definitive indications. This evidence, combined with the absence of race pace testing due to the limitation of free practice sessions to only Friday morning, makes the event particularly unpredictable.
Variables upon variables on a track that often sees the presence of the safety car, which has frequently upset the tactical plans defined beforehand. The circuit, which measures 6000 meters, will have to be covered 51 times. The short race on Saturday, observing especially the performance of Lando Norris who had dared to use the soft tire, tells us that this compound is unlikely to be preferred in the first stint.
Azerbaijan GP 2023: tires available to drivers
Before delving into the strategies, let’s take a look at the tire sets available for each driver, thanks to the Pirelli’s infographic.
We can see that Ferrari, Mercedes, and Red Bull can count on a new set of medium tires, and it is likely that these six drivers will start the Baku race with the medium Pirelli compound. The situation is different for Aston Martin, with Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll who have not kept a set of yellow-banded Pirelli and could opt for a start on hard tires and then “switch” to medium – or even soft – in the final phase of the Azerbaijan GP.
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Azerbaijan GP 2023: race strategies
If there is no intervention from the safety car or virtual safety car, the most suitable strategy for tackling the 51 laps of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is to make a single stop. The pit stop, in fact, is quite penalizing due to the presence of a full throttle straight of over 1800 meters.
The teams will, therefore, try to optimize their material, managing it, to avoid two stops. Unless the race presents those inconveniences that are a common thing around here. An extra stop could become an opportunity to get the better of those who potentially have more pace but have not ideally read the situation that changes abruptly with the potential entry of the safety car.
Based on the data provided by the teams to the tire supplier, it is believed that the most effective strategy is a one-stop plan with a medium tire for the first stint and a switch to a harder compound in the final phase. The window for the first pit stop should be between laps 13 and 20, with the harder compound used for the rest of the race. Of course, great tire management skills will be required, especially for those drivers who find themselves in the middle of the pack and in dirty air.
Given the lack of downforce needed to be fast at the speed traps, the second sector becomes crucial. It will be necessary to avoid overheating, as Max Verstappen complained about during yesterday’s sprint race.
The tactical alternative is to start with the hard tire and extend the stint until even lap 40, then switch to the soft tire, which would avoid suffering because it would only have to cover about ten laps with particularly low fuel loads and a well-rubbered track. However, it is unlikely that any of the top drivers will opt for this solution, as it could be particularly penalizing in the initial phase of the race, with a compound that does not suit the high fuel load.
The third strategy, the two-stop plan, will probably not be used by anyone unless chaos is caused by problems on the track, which could lead to the safety car being deployed. In conclusion, the key to the race is the unpredictability of an event that is often characterized by the presence of the safety car. In addition to the drivers’ shrewdness, the strategists’ skills will also be needed to solve the puzzle that is the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku.
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