Austin: Ferrari starts by showing signs of technical progress, but Red Bull and McLaren have potential. Ferrari’s one-two finish and race pace are very promising signs.

A perfect track to test the level.
Formula 1 finally returns to the track, and it does so on an important circuit—Austin, a track that is interesting not only for the spectacular visuals but especially because it is highly selective for the cars, with aerodynamic and suspension packages being put to the test. The fast “snake” in the first sector challenges the car’s responsiveness, with teams and drivers seeking a combination of suspension stiffness, vertical load, and adaptation to curbs and bumps that provides the best compromise. The gradually slower and longer corners, along with the long straights, then test the aerodynamic stability and efficiency of the packages and Power Units—a true exam track, as we approach the final six races that will determine the 2024 titles.

Ferrari starts well and shows signs of solving some of its problems.
Beyond the session standings, which saw Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc in the top two positions, the Maranello team has begun the American weekend in a decidedly convincing manner. Fast on both soft and hard tires, with a good race pace in stint simulations, and ready to set the fastest time as soon as they hit the track on soft tires, Sainz and Leclerc had no complaints. It seems the setups just need fine-tuning, but the base is excellent for the two red cars.

The data, in fact, clearly reflects what was seen on track. The two Ferraris, and this is the first interesting point, show the highest level of aerodynamic load among the four top teams’ cars, along with excellent performance in the numerous long and slow corners of the American track. One of the main pre-update issues of the SF-24 was precisely stability in long corners, and these seem to be the first signs of improvement in that area. The only weak point, at least compared to Verstappen’s Red Bull, seems to be the very fast change of direction at the start of the “snake” in turns 3-4-5, where the Dutchman really has an edge over the competition, and where the red cars struggle a bit to keep pace. But, considering that Ferrari hasn’t shown particularly high horsepower either, the impression is that Sainz and Leclerc have a car with excellent potential for this important weekend.

Verstappen close behind, looking in great form.
Behind the two Ferrari drivers is Max Verstappen, who followed a different session program compared to the competition, with an early soft-tire qualifying simulation and then a mini long run with a very high fuel load still on soft tires. The Dutchman seemed to be in great harmony with his Red Bull, capable of pushing and finding performance with relative ease. Given the time gap between Verstappen’s lap and the Ferrari drivers’, it’s hard to determine who truly has the best potential. As for Max Verstappen, the usual very lean power delivery curve typical of Red Bull during Friday practice was noticeable, as they try to preserve the Power Unit. His passage through the fast turns 3-4-5 was phenomenal, probably also due to the stiffness of the setup typical of the Milton Keynes car. However, we also noticed particularly low speeds in the slower corners of the third sector, indicating that Red Bull still has some work to do to optimize the entire lap.

McLaren and Mercedes—different but with potential to express or understand.
As for McLaren, the potential seems to be there, with a session largely dedicated to understanding the numerous updates brought to the track by the Woking team. Lando Norris’s data still shows flashes of speed in traction and cornering in the slow sections, confirming the expectations for a high-level weekend for the papaya (and partially chrome) car, especially considering that the MCL38’s best qualities should be strengths on this track. Mercedes, on the other hand, shows data of a car that is once again aerodynamically less loaded than its rivals, somewhat confirming an optimal operating point for the car leaning towards lower downforce. For the Brackley team, much will depend on how the track evolves and how hitting the perfect operating window for the tires will allow them to make the most of this type of setup, which we’ve seen quite consistently on the W15.

The first pole of the weekend is already a tough prediction.
In conclusion, guessing the top drivers in such a tight field is clearly very difficult, and the premise is for a truly competitive weekend among the front runners. Given the highly selective track, this would underline an important technical balance. We’ll see if the first qualifying session of the weekend confirms this impression and what technical cards will be revealed.