We may only be a few races into the new Formula 1 season, but Ferrari have come flying out of the blocks, and at the time of writing sit second in the Constructors’ Championship.
They’ve easily got one of the best pairings on the grid in Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, and after years of painful near-misses it looks like the Scuderia have a car that is capable of delivering the results the team’s many fans have come to expect.
But the early races show an intriguing issue. They’re fighting each other hard, and taking points off each other. Could that cost them? Or just add to the excitement?
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While the Maranello team have been in and out of the fight for both titles in previous years, they’re a much stronger team under Fred Vasseur and the all-star line-up gives them a shot. Especially with Red Bull suffering with the new regulations.
The 2026 Technical Shift: Ferrari’s Engineering Renaissance
The 2026 season has marked the introduction of new regulations, and Ferrari have easily been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this change.
Whereas batteries have long since been an influential factor, in this season they are more important than ever before. This is because of the shift towards electrical power, with a 50/50 split between the internal combustion engine and electrical energy.
Although we may only be a few races into the season, it looks as though Ferrari’s engine department have produced a truly phenomenal power unit, and if they can make this advantage pay, they could greatly improve their chances of ending their trophy drought.
The ‘Macarena Wing’, the rear wing which flips on straights to reduce drag, could rival the drivers for star power.
The Constructors’ Championship: The Power of Two
If Ferrari are to win their first Constructors’ title since 2008, the car alone won’t be enough. Teams need both drivers to be of the highest quality to score points, and, in Leclerc and Hamilton, the Scuderia easily have the experience and driving ability to consistently bank podiums.
The Hamilton-Leclerc Partnership
The partnership between Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc is arguably Ferrari’s greatest asset, as they both have the experience and skill to manage their team’s strategies during the race. Even more crucially, they both have what it takes to stay calm under pressure, which is an invaluable asset in Formula 1 where split-second decisions can make or break your race.
While McLaren and Mercedes have younger lineups and drivers with plenty of potential, F1 is a sport where you can’t beat experience. They can beat each other, though, and the pair have spent way too long fighting each other in the opening races, giving Mercedes a chance to sprint off into the distance and build a lead.
Constructors’ Championship Chance: 50%
Mercedes might have got off to a flier under the new regulations, but the Maranello team are doing a fine job of keeping pace with the Silver Arrows.
The Mercedes car is undoubtedly faster, but, again, experience is a difference maker in this sport. Charles Leclerc has far more experience than Kimi Antonelli, and Lewis Hamilton has far more than George Russell. So, while Ferrari might not have the best equipment, they easily have the capability to regularly get one or even both drivers on the podium.
Points are the name of the game here, not just wins. And if they can string consistent performances together, they could close the gap to Mercedes sooner rather than later, and even be in with a shout of claiming victory in the Constructors’ Championship.
The Drivers’ Championship: A Three-Way Dogfight
While the Constructors’ title is about teamwork, the Drivers’ Championship is a ruthless individual battle. Lewis Hamilton isn’t out of the picture just yet, but if results continue as they have been, it looks likely that Charles Leclerc will be fighting against both Mercedes drivers to be crowned the best driver on the grid.
Can Charles Leclerc Finally Ascend?
Leclerc has been with the Scuderia long enough to know how their systems work, having been part of the team since his transfer from Sauber back in 2019. What’s more, he has come a long way since his rookie season and is now one of the most respected drivers on the grid.
Time and again, Leclerc has proven his ability to compete with better cars through supreme race management, but he is his own worst enemy at times. He still has unforced errors in him, and he needs to eliminate these if he is to realise his dreams of becoming World Champion.
Lewis Hamilton: The Dark Horse
By now, any F1 fan worth their salt knows you never count out Lewis Hamilton. Although he has benefited from having one of, if not the best cars, on the grid, he has also shown that he is more than capable of punching above his weight when the car isn’t working in his favour.
While he currently sits behind Leclerc in the Drivers’ Rankings, Hamilton has a habit of showing the world why he is a 7-time champion when the season heads to Europe. The ability is undoubtedly there, and if Ferrari can deliver the necessary aero updates their car needs by then, Hamilton could very well string a run of podiums together, and you wouldn’t bet against him winning a few of those either.
Drivers’ Championship Chance: 30%
Both Ferrari drivers are excellent, but there’s only so much they can do for their individual ambitions when they’re up against the Mercedes W17. And each other.
Updates are definitely needed if the car is to build on its promising start, but already the superiority of Mercedes has left the Maranello team at a significant disadvantage. Ferrari have the better drivers, but if things continue as they are, both of the Silver Arrows racers could soon open up a major gap in the Drivers’ Standings that could prove very challenging to overcome.
The Difference Makers
The Development War
Right from the start of the campaign, it became clear that Mercedes had utilised the new regulations to turn their team’s car into a rocketship. Indeed, Kimi Antonelli has credited the R&D team after his wins this campaign.
Interestingly, this flips the dynamic of previous years. While the current Ferrari isn’t as fast as the Mercedes, there have been instances where the Scuderia started on the front foot by a considerable margin.
In 2017, 2018, and 2022, Ferrari started with the fastest car but weren’t able to sustain their advantage. In fact, they were out-developed by both Mercedes and Red Bull. So, the Scuderia know what it feels like to be overtaken, and now they have to do the overtaking themselves.
Winning in F1 is as much about developing the car throughout the season as it is the car the teams start with, and the Scuderia will need the B-spec floor upgrades to deliver upon their promise of massively increased downforce if they are to stand any chance of winning any silverware this campaign.
Internal Dynamics
As important as the quality of both the car and individual drivers are, an often overlooked factor in a team’s success is whether the drivers get along. F1 is a cutthroat sport, and everyone on the grid is ultimately out for themselves.
Team Principal Fred Vasseur knows this all too well, and Leclerc and Hamilton both have massive egos, as they’re used to getting their own way. As such, the biggest risk to Ferrari’s chances of winning anything this campaign isn’t the car or the quality of the drivers, but whether the racers can put their pride aside to work together in the heat of the moment.
If Leclerc and Hamilton can work together, they have a much better chance at winning the Constructors’ title, and, by extension, improve their individual standings as well. However, if they can’t put their egos aside, they could very well cost their team any chance of silverware.
So far, Vasseur has managed to keep their egos in check, but his management skills will really be tested if, as expected, Ferrari find themselves with a chance of silverware towards the latter part of the season.
Final Predictions: Will the Trophy Return to Maranello?
Given what we’ve seen so far this season, as well as the races and car upgrades that are to come, the Scuderia’s best chance of silverware is the Constructors’ Championship.
Put simply, Ferrari’s driver lineup is too strong to ignore. While Mercedes may have a slightly faster car, Leclerc and Hamilton have a far better chance of regularly racking up points. Kimi Antonelli looks to have a very promising future, but his inexperience could very well lead to slip-ups that ultimately cost the Silver Arrows.
However, Mercedes objectively have the better car, so while Antonelli’s slip-ups could cost them the Constructors’ title, seeing a Ferrari driver finish top of the final standings is much more difficult.
Ultimately, we believe that Ferrari will claim the Constructors’ Championship, but although they have the drivers, the gap between the W17 and SF-26 is too much to power a Scuderia driver to individual glory this time around. The Maranello developers are close, but they’re not there just yet.
And the drivers will have to find some common ground and stop battling for third if they want to stop Mercedes disappearing up the road.
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