To make a correct assessment of the performance at Imola, first of all we should look at some variables that affected the race.
After the positive debut in Bahrain, McLaren managed important result at Imola in an excellent weekend thanks to an impeccable Norris. The podium was the right result for a drive that translated 100% of the potential of the MCL35M , holding its own in wet conditions where the difficulties for McLaren were most evident.
But at the same time, Charles Leclerc’s missed podium shouldn’t be completely deceiving. Ferrari showed a positive pace in the first part with an average gap of around +0.7 sec / lap from Max Verstappen, in line with what they expected at Maranello, but with an advantage of ~ 1 sec / lap over Norris.
On car number 16 it was decided, as for Carlos Sainz, to have a more useful setup in case of rain. This is after analyzing the free practice sessions on Friday, races with more aggressive set-ups and dry. It was noted that the (longer) DRS zone could allow to greatly minimize the loss of performance in qualifying, with something important to gain on Sunday thanks to a more oriented set-up for a “mixed” race.
Something that everyone has done, but Ferrari more than McLaren, also on the basis of driving style and confidence in relation to a track that requires a certain aggression to hit the best time and pace.
Charles Leclerc, however, according to the information collected, would have opted for a balance even softer than Carlos Sainz; It is interesting to highlight how the Spaniard, on intermediates, sought more angular lines than the team mate precisely in order not to spend too much time in support with a car that is loaded but a bit more nervous. The two errors are no coincidence, as well as the very interesting pace, similar to that of his more experienced teammate, especially at the end.
The performance of the SF21 was quite clear in the first part, while it is not possible to fully judge it in the second part. Norris immediately overtook Charles thanks to the Mercedes power and greater traction on the Softs, the same weapons that allowed him to defend his position from the return of the Ferraris (predictable for the difference in compound).
On the one hand, the difference in set-up was actually to be considered important in qualifying, albeit with not too different results between Norris and Leclerc, in the order of three tenths, thanks to the possibility of exploiting the DRS for more meters which removed part of the resistance in more to the SF21 and allowed a certain minimization of the time “lost” between the Rivazza exit and the Tamburello (0.2 sec).
In qualifying and in the second section of the race – with the track increasingly drier and which greatly influenced the final result – the true potential of the SF21 was therefore not seen. Norris made use of clean air with which to manage the tires well and energy especially in Sector 1, and then exploited them a little more in Sector 3 especially at the Rivazza exit to be able to keep Charles Leclerc at a good distance. Although Ferrari had had the opportunity to use DRS, it was never really dangerous still lacking the necessary power and above all efficiency (also by choice, as written above), towards the MCL35M.
According to our information, the difference in qualifying from the Mercedes PU is within 15 HP, which in Imola is equivalent to ~ 0.25 sec. The gap widens slightly in the race. Hybrid and consumption are the areas where the Italian power unit will have to recover as compared to its rivals (Mercedes and Honda) even if the winter objectives have been achieved.
Lando kept Charles in dirty air for 28 laps, never stretching even with a very fresh Soft tire that worked as they hoped in the orange box. We are talking about margins that are not important, but at that extended distance the pursuing car cannot prove it, even if it has more pace.
Max Verstappen was certainly the driver with the most balanced car, even in terms of performance. Very strong in the intermediates, strong enough in mixed conditions to manage the gap with Hamilton , rather solid in the second phase to manage the gap on the others and on Lewis above all without much trouble.
According to the simulation data collected, Charles Leclerc in a dry race condition would have suffered an average delay of ~ 0.75 sec / lap from the Dutchman with a smaller gap at the end of the race compared to Bahrain.
It would have been slightly better with a lighter configuration, the one initially used, especially in the early stages of the race, not much but also enough to defend better if necessary on the straight.
However, although the “theory” gives good hope, there is still a certain discrepancy between the single lap and the effectiveness in the race. This is what they will focus on in Maranello in view of the next events.
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