German automobile magazine ‘Auto Motor und Sport’ sat down again with the engineers who analyze every single lap, note down tyre types and their lap times, calculate fuel quantities and interpret engine programs using GPS data. Here is the balance of power according to winter testing:
“After six days of testing in Barcelona, a good picture of the balance of power emerges. Mercedes is once again the main favourite for 2020 and according to all projections, the silver arrows are three tenths ahead of Red Bull and at least half a second ahead of Ferrari.
Analysts in Formula 1 have a hard time. Do you remember last year? After the winter testing sessions, everybody praised Ferrari and saw Mercedes as a problem child. Everything happened very differently in Melbourne. Could this happen to us again this time with the opposite sign?
Unlikely. There is no doubt about the speed of the new Mercedes W11. “They make fast laps with ease, everyone else with less consistency,” says Sebastian Vettel. Mercedes can only stumble on reliability at the moment. Four engine problems over six days is not ideal, with two weeks until the start of the season.
As always, Red Bull is a surprise. Max Verstappen delivered the whole spectrum of good and bad omens. He was often a guest in the gravel bed, but shortly before the end of the game, he caught the eye with a lap time that was at Mercedes level, but was achieved with harder tires.
Ferrari does not go to Melbourne as a favorite like in the previous year. But is the Maranello team as bad as it looked? If Ferrari bluffed and will surprise everyone in Melbourne, they played a damn good hide-and-seek game. Team boss Mattia Binotto will have to explain to us why he downplayed Ferrari’s chances two weeks before the start of the season: “We currently have no winning car. Others are faster than us. We will only know how far behind we are after three races.”
Ferrari is missing six tenths
We didn’t want to wait that long. We sat down again with the engineers who analyze each lap, note the tire types and their running times, calculate fuel quantities and interpret engine programs based on GPS data. Here is their projection: Mercedes leads the ranking ahead of Red Bull, Ferrari, Racing Point, McLaren, Renault, Alpha Tauri, Haas, Alfa Romeo and Williams. With the following intervals:
What do the numbers mean? Mercedes has a good cushion. Only the last aero package brought Red Bull closer to the top of the class. Before that, the gap was half a second. Ferrari is still puzzling. Mercedes continues to believe that the Maranello team is deliberately holding back power. Alfa Romeo has calculated better performance values based on the speeds on the straights.
Ferrari denies that it has always driven with reduced performance. “What you saw is our potential,” said team principal Mattia Binotto in a nutshell. Sebastian Vettel added: “We have turned the engine up now and then, but in moments when it is not always visible.”
A lot of movement in the midfield
Racing Point could be a danger to Ferrari on one lap, especially in the first part of the season. “They can’t afford the slightest mistake. Otherwise Perez is in front of the Ferrari” – says one of experts. In the long runs, however, Ferrari was clearly ahead of the Mercedes copy. One quarter of a second per lap. But it is clear that Racing Point leads the midfield.”
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