Mercedes heads to the 2026 Italian Grand Prix as the early favourite, with the W17 expected to be particularly well suited to Monza, but Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull all have reasons to believe they can challenge. Ferrari will rely on its more powerful and efficient new ADUO-2 power unit, McLaren arrives after two consecutive victories, while Red Bull could find a circuit that plays more naturally to the RB22’s strengths.
The decisive factor at Monza, however, may no longer simply be who runs the smallest rear wing or records the highest top speed. Formula 1’s 2026 active aerodynamics and Straight Mode could fundamentally alter the traditional Monza compromise, rewarding the cars capable of generating useful downforce in the corners without paying too high a drag penalty along the straights.
How active aerodynamics changes the traditional Monza setup
For decades, Monza has demanded wings trimmed almost to the minimum and a car that drivers had to carefully guide through the corners with relatively little aerodynamic support. In 2026, Straight Mode — the low-drag configuration with the active wing elements opened on the straights — has the potential to change that equation.
Monza will remain a low-downforce circuit, but teams should be able to run slightly more aerodynamic load without facing the same straight-line penalty as in previous generations. The traditional race towards the flattest possible wing configuration could therefore become less extreme. At Lesmo, Ascari and the Parabolica, a few additional points of downforce may give back more lap time through the corners than they cost on the straights.
The real differentiator will be the efficiency of the car’s static aerodynamic components. The bodywork, floor and diffuser continue generating drag even when Straight Mode is activated. The advantage will therefore not automatically go to whichever car produces the most downforce, but to the one that can create that load with the least aerodynamic resistance.
A car capable of obtaining a significant proportion of its grip from the bodywork and underfloor could consequently run relatively low-downforce wings while remaining competitive both through Monza’s corners and on its long straights. That aerodynamic efficiency has become an increasingly important theme across Ferrari’s wider SF-26 technical development.
Ferrari brings ADUO-2 and its Zandvoort floor to Monza
Ferrari arrives at its home Grand Prix with perhaps its most complete package of the season. The new ADUO-2 power unit will be combined with the low-downforce configuration already seen at Spa, giving the Scuderia a known aerodynamic baseline that should require only relatively small adjustments once running begins at Monza.
The SF-26 will also retain the floor introduced at Zandvoort, developed to make the airflow towards the diffuser more consistent and provide greater rear-end stability. Charles Leclerc immediately demonstrated some of its potential in the Netherlands, while Lewis Hamilton found it more difficult to extract the same benefits.
Monza will therefore provide an especially interesting examination of the upgrade. If the new floor can generate useful load without adding excessive drag, Ferrari may be able to retain a relatively unloaded wing configuration while giving Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton a more stable car through Ascari. The combination forms part of Ferrari’s broader Monza-specific SF-26 upgrade package.
The FTM winglet, the small aerodynamic appendage positioned around the exhaust area and used on the SF-26 at almost every race so far, is also expected to remain unless Ferrari changes direction after evaluating the car on track. Keeping it would provide additional support to the rear of the car, while removing it could offer a small top-speed gain.
That extra straight-line performance may no longer be quite as important following the introduction of the new engine. Ferrari has been preparing both hardware and energy-management improvements for Monza, with its ADUO-2 and software work aimed specifically at extracting more performance from the SF-26 around the Italian circuit.
Where the Ferrari SF-26 could be strongest at Monza
Ferrari could be particularly competitive at the Prima Variante and Variante della Roggia because of the SF-26’s braking performance and its ability to rotate quickly through low-speed corners. Those characteristics should give Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton an opportunity to gain time in Monza’s heavy braking zones.
The greater uncertainty concerns the latter part of the acceleration phase. At Zandvoort, the SF-26 accelerated strongly immediately after corner exit but tended to lose something as its speed continued to increase. ADUO-2 should reduce that limitation, although it is not expected to completely match the efficiency demonstrated by what appears to be the strongest power unit in the field: Mercedes.
Traction, energy deployment and rear-tyre management could consequently become just as significant as pure top speed, a combination also examined in ScuderiaFans’ wider 2026 Italian GP technical preview.
Why Mercedes starts the Italian GP as favourite
Mercedes arrives at Monza with what is arguably the most complete car in the field. The W17 combines an effective power unit with predictable behaviour through medium-speed corners and strong management of the rear tyres, characteristics that were reinforced by several less visible updates introduced in the Netherlands.
Lesmo 1, Ascari and the opening phase of the Parabolica could become particularly strong sections for the W17. Mercedes may also be one of the teams best positioned to exploit Straight Mode because the car can carry sufficient downforce to remain fast through the corners before reducing wing drag on the straights.
The low-downforce package Mercedes brought to Spa, but ultimately did not use because the circuit was still insufficiently rubbered in, is set to make its true competitive debut at Monza. Mercedes will need to assess its braking stability and behaviour over the kerbs, but the team has an extremely solid foundation from which to begin the weekend.
Kimi Antonelli’s penalty leaves George Russell as Mercedes’ main Monza threat
The two Mercedes drivers face completely different Italian Grand Prix weekends. Kimi Antonelli will replace his entire power unit while retaining the same specification, meaning he will not introduce an engine featuring Mercedes’ permitted ADUO modifications.
Kimi Antonelli will have fresh components available, but the resulting penalty means he is expected to start from the back of the grid. Monza’s straight-line speeds should help the Italian make progress, although traffic and the challenge of maintaining the tyres in the correct temperature window could make his home Grand Prix considerably more complicated.
George Russell, by contrast, will retain his previous power unit and is expected to postpone his own penalty until one of the following Grands Prix, certainly not Madrid. That leaves George Russell as the main Mercedes contender at the front of the field and, on paper, the favourite for the Italian Grand Prix.
Kimi Antonelli’s grid penalty also changes the competitive picture across the entire 2026 Italian Grand Prix weekend, potentially opening another opportunity for Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull to attack Mercedes.
McLaren arrives at Monza transformed after its Budapest upgrade
McLaren can no longer be judged on what it showed earlier in the season in Canada or Austria. The upgrade introduced in Budapest transformed the MCL40, and Lando Norris now arrives at Monza after two consecutive victories.
The McLaren has become a much more complete car. It manages its tyres particularly well, although the rear axle remains somewhat more demanding, and allows Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri to apply the throttle earlier without generating excessive rear-wheel sliding.
Although the MCL40 uses the same Mercedes power unit as the factory team, McLaren’s car has a shorter wheelbase and different, generally shorter gear ratios. It should therefore be particularly responsive during the first phase of acceleration and agile through Monza’s chicanes.
The exits from the Prima Variante, Roggia and especially Lesmo 2 could provide a genuine advantage, as could the rapid change of direction required through Ascari.
The potential limitation comes towards the end of the straights. Shorter gear ratios can leave less margin once the car is already travelling at very high speed, particularly when running in another car’s slipstream with all the available energy deployed. The shorter wheelbase also helps rotation but can make the car less settled through high-speed sections.
If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri can negotiate Ascari without requiring corrections from the steering wheel, McLaren should have the qualities needed to fight both for pole position and victory.
Red Bull could emerge as the Monza surprise
Red Bull represents the potential outsider. Monza concentrates several of the RB22’s strongest characteristics into a single circuit: an effective internal combustion engine, low straight-line drag, stability under heavy braking and good traction at low speed.
Max Verstappen should therefore be competitive through both chicanes and on the exits of Lesmo 2 and the Parabolica. The main weakness is likely to be Ascari.
Through rapid changes of direction, Red Bull has not always provided Max Verstappen with the same confidence as Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari. An excessively unloaded aerodynamic configuration could make the RB22 nervous over the kerbs, while adding too much wing would reduce one of the car’s main advantages.
Straight Mode could help Red Bull find a more effective compromise, but once again the aerodynamic efficiency of the bodywork and floor will be decisive. The challenge will be generating enough load for Ascari without sacrificing the low-drag performance that could make the RB22 so dangerous elsewhere around the lap.
C3, C4 and C5 tyres add another strategic variable
Pirelli’s C3, C4 and C5 compounds will introduce another variable into the Italian Grand Prix. A slightly higher-downforce setup could help reduce rear-tyre sliding without compromising straight-line performance as heavily as it would have done under previous regulations.
That could favour Mercedes over a race distance, given the W17’s strong management of the rear axle, while McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull may need to pay closer attention to traction and tyre temperature.
The expected conditions will also influence those compromises, particularly if high temperatures increase the demands placed on the rear tyres. Fans following the weekend can find the latest conditions in the 2026 Italian GP weather forecast.
Mercedes leads the favourites, but Ferrari and McLaren are close
On the eve of the weekend, Mercedes retains its position as the reference, although only George Russell should be able to start near the front because of Kimi Antonelli’s penalty.
Ferrari and McLaren appear to belong to the same chasing group for different reasons. Ferrari brings its power-unit evolution and a low-downforce package derived from solutions already used at previous races, while McLaren arrives with the strongest recent form and an MCL40 that has changed significantly since Budapest.
For Ferrari, Monza will be a particularly important test of whether the development work introduced around Zandvoort and ADUO-2 can translate into a genuine home-race challenge. Both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton should have a car whose characteristics offer realistic opportunities in several of Monza’s most important braking and acceleration zones.
Red Bull starts as the outsider of the four leading teams, but the characteristics of the circuit could provide the RB22 with a better opportunity to close the gap to its rivals.
Monza 2026 could be decided by efficiency rather than outright top speed
The picture points towards four teams and effectively five drivers fighting at the front, taking into account Oscar Piastri’s recent difficulties, the performance level of Red Bull’s second driver and the penalty Kimi Antonelli must serve.
It will all unfold at a Monza that is even more different from the circuit Formula 1 teams have traditionally prepared for. In previous years, the Italian Grand Prix often became a contest to remove as much wing as possible and chase maximum straight-line speed. In 2026, the new active-aero concept changes the priorities.
The winner may not simply be the driver with the lowest-downforce wing or the fastest car through the speed trap. The decisive advantage could instead belong to whichever team can retain the most useful downforce through Lesmo, Ascari and the Parabolica while generating the least possible resistance from the car’s static aerodynamic surfaces.
Just as importantly, the leading teams must manage their available energy all the way to the end of Monza’s exceptionally long straights. Ferrari’s new engine, Mercedes’ overall efficiency, McLaren’s improved agility and Red Bull’s low-drag strengths therefore create four different routes towards the same objective.
At the Temple of Speed, outright velocity will still matter enormously. But in 2026, the fastest way around Monza may come from carrying more downforce than before — and making sure the car barely pays for it when the wings open.
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