The penultimate round of the Formula 1 season unfolded in Doha last night. The world championship is now approaching its final chapter, with the battle between Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri entering its decisive stages. Verstappen’s victory, combined with Oscar’s second place and Lando’s fourth position in the Qatar Grand Prix, paints a surprising picture. Norris still leads the standings with 408 points, the four-time world champion follows 12 points behind, and the Australian driver sits in third with a 16-point deficit.
Everything remains open ahead of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but what allowed Max Verstappen to win the race starting from P3? The Dutchman overtook Norris at the start, immediately placing himself in a favourable position. However, the true turning point came when the Safety Car was deployed on lap seven. At that moment, all the drivers – including Max – chose to pit, while McLaren decided not to stop. It was a decision that would prove costly at the end of the race.
All race strategies
Before analysing further, it is useful to consider the strategies that shaped the Qatar GP. With Pirelli enforcing a maximum stint length of 25 laps per tyre set, there were not many variations available. As anticipated in our usual pre-race preview, the drivers opted to use two sets of Medium tyres. What changed was the final stint, which ultimately became crucial.
The race winner, Max Verstappen, adopted an M-M-H strategy, making his first stop on lap seven under the Safety Car caused by Nico Hülkenberg’s retirement. Several drivers followed the same tactical approach: Carlos Sainz, Kimi Antonelli, George Russell, Fernando Alonso, Charles Leclerc, Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda — with the latter being the only one finishing outside the points. Pierre Gasly uniquely opted for Medium-Hard-Medium.
On the Hard-Medium-Medium strategy we found Alex Albon and Franco Colapinto, while Lewis Hamilton ran Soft-Medium-Medium. Gabriel Bortoleto chose M-M-S. Esteban Ocon was forced into four stops — M-M-M-H — due to a penalty for a false start. Retirements included Lance Stroll, Isack Hadjar, Oliver Bearman and Hülkenberg.
Ultimately, McLaren was the only team that chose not to pit when the Safety Car entered on lap seven, and that decision is what effectively allowed Verstappen to win the GP. Both Piastri and Norris completed two-stop strategies (M-M-H) but ran longer opening stints compared to the Dutchman.
Smart call by Schmitz, but everyone except McLaren got it right
Last night many fans and paddock insiders praised Hannah Schmitz. Red Bull even honoured her by sending her to collect the team’s trophy on the podium. And those compliments are deserved — she made the correct decision — but we believe this was less about Red Bull outsmarting everyone and more about McLaren making a strategic mistake. This is something the “papaya” drivers themselves confirmed after the race.
Of course, Schmitz made the right call and deserves credit, but every other team on the grid did the same. All of them — except McLaren. That is why, in our view, the story is less about an exceptional Red Bull strategy and more about an error by the Woking pit wall. In any case, this is a matter of interpretation, a simple difference in perspective.
McLaren did not trust the tyres and stood still watching
We say McLaren made the wrong choice, even though we admit that we ourselves — mistakenly — would likely have made the same call. All weekend long we insisted that the Medium tyre would be the best race tyre in Qatar, and it indeed turned out that way. So, like McLaren, we perhaps did not expect Verstappen to show such strong pace on the Hard compound.
McLaren, especially with Piastri, had been consistently quicker than Verstappen in the first two stints — even on used tyres compared to Max’s new sets. But once on the white-band Hard compound, the car lacked the necessary performance to close the gap.
That the Hard C1 pace was poor — for everyone — is clear from the fact that neither Max Verstappen nor the McLarens managed to beat Lando Norris’ 2024 lap record of 1’22’’384 in Qatar. Oscar Piastri could only reach 1’22’’996, a number that should be particularly striking considering the qualifying improvements seen this year.
Many observers blamed McLaren for not pitting at least with Norris, who was right behind Verstappen when the Safety Car was deployed (having been overtaken at the start). It is understandable that the Australian, as the race leader, chose not to stop. But Lando did have the possibility to follow Max. After some reflection, we believe the team simply did not trust the performance of the C1 tyre. This was not about giving both drivers equal conditions; McLaren was genuinely convinced that staying out was the right decision.
The free pit stop made the difference
With last year’s race being run on a one-stop strategy, most teams — when they saw the Safety Car entering on lap seven — considered it an unmissable opportunity. Initially, we thought teams pitted because overtaking is difficult in Qatar; stopping under Safety Car would allow them to mix strategies with those who stayed out, potentially shaking up the order.
In reality, everyone pitted except McLaren. Therefore, the advantage was not about doing something different but about taking a “free” pit stop. Afterwards, it became impossible for McLaren to match Verstappen’s pace on the Hard tyres, which allowed the Dutchman to beat Piastri by around eight seconds. Norris had to settle for fourth place, partly due to a less impressive pace already in the second Medium stint. Perhaps a hard hit on a kerb may have damaged his floor slightly, compromising his rhythm in the second half of the race.
Ferrari at the mercy of itself
Ferrari’s issue was once again the performance in the qualifying session. Charles Leclerc finished eighth after starting tenth, and Lewis Hamilton ended up twelfth after starting eighteenth. By aligning their race strategy with that of the others, the two SF-25 cars had no possibility of climbing the order. In Ferrari’s case, perhaps attempting a McLaren-style gamble could have made sense, but considering how Saturday unfolded between qualifying and the Sprint, it is doubtful this would have truly helped. The SF-25 single-seater simply lacked pace at the Lusail circuit. The car never showed rhythm at any point during the entire weekend.
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